State of Australian Climate 2024 paints a worsening picture: 13 graphs and maps

 

Australia's climate is worsening, driven by accelerating climate change, according to the latest assessment by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO. 

Buckle up people. Expect longer, more intense extreme heat events. Heat events kill more people than all other extreme weather events combined. 

Australia has now warmed by 1.51 degrees Centigrade.

South West Australia and South East Australia will get drier. But when it rains, heavy short term rain events are becoming more intense. That means more flash flooding. It also has iimplications for agriculture.

The hotter, drier climate means longer fire season, a more extreme fire season. We are seeing more pyrocumulonimbus (Pyro CB) fires when a bushfire starts generating its own weather firestorm. Larger fires mean more smoke that can travel for hundreds even thousands of kilometres with the air pollution particulates affecting people in distant towns and cities. More people are dying from smoke related conditions.

Tasmania breaks July winter temperature records; Sydney records hottest July temperature

Temperature records tumble during winter in Tasmania in July. And Sydney set a new warmist July record. It seems July temperature records aren't only being broken during the northern hemisphere heatwaves, but also in the depths of winter season in Australia.

In Tasmania:

• statewide mean maximum temperature was 1.40 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record. 
• statewide mean minimum temperature was 2.63 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record since observations begun in 1910. 
• Minimum temperatures were more than 8 °C higher than average for parts of the north-east on the 8th.
• 
  13th July particularly warm. Many sites had their highest daily minimum temperature for July on record.
• Hobart had its warmest July night on record reaching  13.0 °C (137 years of observations).

"For Tasmania, the July statewide mean maximum temperature was 1.40 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record. For New South Wales this July was the fourth-warmest on record, for Victoria the sixth-warmest on record and for South Australia the tenth-warmest on record."

"Tasmania's statewide mean minimum temperature was 2.63 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record since observations begun in 1910.  For Queensland this July was the seventh-warmest on record."

"much of Tasmania had a very warm night on the 13th. Many sites had their highest daily minimum temperature for July on record. Hobart had its warmest July night on record reaching  13.0 °C (137 years of observations)."

This follows a warm June with temperature and rainfall records falling:

• A couple of sites had their highest June temperature on record and a couple of others their highest daily minimum temperature on record on the 17th due to a prevailing and warm north to north-westerly airstream.
• A few sites had their highest June daily rainfall on record and a couple their highest total June rainfall on record.

2018 third hottest on record for Australia with protracted drought, persistent heat

Australia's average temperature in 2018 was 1.14 °C above the 1961–1990 average, making it slightly warmer than 2017 said the Bureau of Meteorology in the 2018 Annual climate statement.

"When we look across all of Australia in 2018, we can see that every single state and territory had above-average day and night-time temperatures," Dr Bettio said.

"The average maximum temperature for the country as a whole was particularly warm, sitting 1.55 °C above the 1961–1990 average, making 2018 Australia's second warmest year on record for daily high temperatures.

"Average minimum temperatures for 2018 were 0.73 °C above average, the eleventh-warmest on record.

"The only part of the country to buck the trend for above average temperatures was the Kimberley region, which had cooler than average nights for the year."

On temperatures 2018 was Australia's third-warmest year on record; a year of protracted drought and persistent warmth.

Meanwhile, Australia still has no effective climate or energy policy, no consistent plan to phase out coal or gas fossil fuels, no plan to reduce transport emissions, a problem with increased vegetation clearing in Queensland and New South Wales. Australia's emissions are rising over the last 4 years and Environment department Data shows that Australia is unlikely to meet it's low 26 percent emissions reduction target by 2030.

Heatwave makes Australia hottest place on planet with catastrophic bushfire conditions

Australia is currently the hottest place on the planet with the heatwave in SE Australia according to the Climate Reanalyzer site for Saturday 11 February. And last year (2016) was the hottest year on the planet in recorded history, following two previous years which also set the record.

As heat temperature records tumbled in south east Australia in the heatwave, catastrophic fireweather conditions were being experienced on Sunday over a wide region from Port Stephens in the Hunter Region, Tablelands and the Central West region of New South Wales. These conditions are categorized as a greater danger than the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires of 2009 which killed 173 people directly in the bushfires and 374 excess deaths due to the heatwave.

Update: Climate scientists calculate that Climate change doubled the likelihood of the New South Wales heatwave (Feb 16, 2017 The Conversation)

We have an energy crisis with load shedding ocurring in South Australia on Wednesday (that needn't have occurred), and load shedding in NSW on Friday and Saturday with the Tomago Aluminium plant being ordered to curtail production and energy use.

But what you will find largely absent in the media and comments by politicians on the heatwave is any reference to climate change which is an essential driving factor of more intense heatwave conditions and catastrophic fireweather.

The mining and burning of coal is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and needs to be phased out in an orderly way to meet our international commitments on climate change. The only but would be if carbon capture and storage (CCS) was developed at scale and at reasonable cost, and I don't see enough research and investment to make this happen in a realistic timeframe.

So the Liberal Party are causing a clean coal controversy and blaming renewables, when AEMO and the energy market needs a thorough overhaul to re-prioritise production to meet consumer demand and social requirements rather than business profits. Just look at AEMO's governance bias for a start.

The Transition road may be rough at times, but we really do need to move to 100 per cent renewables. Prior changes such as the transition from horse and buggy transport to automobiles - about 13 years - at the start of the twentieth century, shows that transition happens relatively quickly. State renewables targets are realistic and already driving the energy transition we need.

Is it so hard to come up with a bipartisan national energy plan?

Brisbane and Sydney turn on record heat in January 2017 with record warm nights

Averaged across the state, Queensland had its 6th warmest January on record. Mean minimum temperatures were the second-warmest on record for January. (see above deciles average map for January)

But the City of Brisbane in the south east just experienced it's warmist January on record. Back to back heatwaves have brought persistent heat to south east Australia, and especially to southern Queensland and New South Wales. The town of Moree has had 36 consecutive days of temperatures over 35C, doubling the previous record of 17 days in 1982.

2016 hottest year on record globally, 4th warmest for Australia

This article by John Englart was first published at Climate Action Moreland.

The official reports are in. 2016 was the hottest year on record according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology declared 2016 the 4th warmest on record, but with record sea surface temperatures around the continent.

Australia's record Autumn temperatures: 1.86C temperature anomaly

The latest Climate Council report has outlined that Australia has set new record temperatures for Autumn 2016. This is to be expected given the strong El Nino this year, but it comes on escalating yearly global average temperatures from climate change.

According to the Climate Council report, Australia experienced its warmest March, second warmest April and second warmest May on record.

The Bureau of Meteorology said that autumn 2016 is the warmest autumn on record for Australia with the mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.86 °C - the largest anomaly for any season since spring 2014 when it was 1.67 °C. They argue that while El Niño and other climate drivers were a factor in warmer temperatures, "it is the background trend which now largely explains the more frequent high temperature records."

Record Heat continues in Australia during 2014 says BOM

Australia experienced its third warmest year on record in 2014 with an Australian annual national mean 0.91 °C above the average. Autumn was also the third warmest on record and Spring set a new national record for average temperature.

It was also the warmest year on record for New South Wales (0.04 °C above the previous record set in 2009), the second-warmest for Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, equal-third-warmest for Queensland and fourth-warmest for Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures were 1.16 °C above average, and minimum temperatures 0.66 °C above average.

The annual mean temperature was the second-highest on record with an anomaly of +1.28 °C, behind +1.29 °C recorded in 2013.

Peter Hannam in the Sydney Morning Herald notes that Sydney had a record warm year with few cold spells. "Last year was the city's equal warmest for overnight temperatures and its second-warmest for means and maximums in 156 years of record keeping at Observatory Hill."

Natasha Boddy, writing in the Canberra Times, says that Canberra sweltered through third-warmest year in 2014

Climate change gives a clear signal in 2014 State of the climate Australia report

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO have published their latest State of the Climate report for Australia for 2014 which shows a clear signal of anthropogenic climate change for the Australian region.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott says that climate change is occurring but refuses to acknowledge that this is overwhelmingly caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. He says he believes in the science and then continues dismantling the small amount of climate mitigation policies we have in place in the carbon price, Clean Energy Finance Corporation, Climate Change Authority, and appointing Dick Warbuton an advowed climate sceptic and anti-wind advocate to chair the Renewable Energy Target review panel.

Professor Neville Nicholls from Monash University, writing in a post at the Conversation, clearly articulated the dangers in not taking appropriate climate action:

"...we are already seeing the impact of more severe heat events and more weather conducive to fire activity.

Heat events and bushfires already cause increased death and illness, as well as destroying property and damaging infrastructure. The recent increases in the climate drivers of severe heat events and bushfires have exacerbated the risks.

These heatwaves and bushfires are bringing home the reality of climate change. They affect Australian families and their homes – they are not something that happens to other people a long way away, or will happen to us a long time in the future. They are a clear and present danger to us, right now.

The Climate Change Authority last week, after extensive analysis of scientific conclusions, economic modelling and examining climate action happening on an international scale recommended that our greenhouse gas emissions target be lifted to 19 per cent by 2020 from 5 per cent on 2000 levels.

2013 hottest year on record for Australia

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed on 3 January 2014 in the annual climate statement that 2013 was the hottest year on record for Australia. This was all the more concerning considering the neutral ENSO conditions. 2013 also ranks as the sixth-warmest year since global records commenced in 1880, according to the WMO.

Related: Sea surface temperatures unusually warm around Australia in 2013 | 2013 was Australia's hottest year, warm for much of the world say Bureau of Meteorology scientists | SMH: Climate change: It's hot - and not just in the kitchens of bickering MPs | Alex White (Guardian): Australia swelters under a sham climate change policy after hottest year on record

El Niño intensification means stronger droughts for Australia, storms for Kiribati

El Niño is likely to become more intense with climate change, and produce drier conditions for Australia and the Western Pacific, with increases in rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in the mid to late twenty first century, according to new research.

It is the first time climate scientists have produced robust results from modelling to conclude that climate change has a substantial impact on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the future. But a 2010 study by scientists from NASA and NOAA provided some signs.

So, a stronger El Niño is likely to bring more intense drying which may exacerbate drought and bushfire weather. In the central pacific island nation of Kiribati El Niño will bring more intense rain and floods. More intense Winter rain and floods may be felt in California, northwest Mexico and southwest United States, as well as down the west coast of South America, and even further afield.

Hottest September and hottest 12 months on record for Australia

Even though the global land surface temperatures have appeared to plateau since 1998 - a global hiatus - other measurements show global warming has continued with continued warming of the oceans, sea level rise, melting of Arctic sea ice, continued retreat of mountain glaciers. 2000 to 2010 was also the hottest decade on record.

Significantly, Australia has broken many temperature records this year with the extreme January heatwave and Angry Summer, sizzling warming into late Autumn, a relatively warm Winter, and now the hottest September on record averaged across Australia, and the hottest 12 months on record. Australia is also on track for the hottest calendar year this year.

Records tumble in heatwave as Julia Gillard links bushfire to climate change

On Tuesday January 8 the Bureau of Meteorology released an interim special climate statement on the Extreme January heat Australia is currently experiencing. Record temperatures both day-time maximum and night-time minimums continue to be broken. The extraordinary heatwave has also been the scene for catastrophic fires, especially in Tasmania. The Prime Minister Julia Gillard saw the devastation in Dunalley and amoung her many interviews and press conferences made a brief statement connecting the intensity of bushfires with climate change.

The Extreme Heatwave had its origins in late December, but seriously started on January 3. It covers an extensive part of the continent mainly affecting inland areas but occasionally impacting the coast. Dr Braganza described it has "It's just an extensive dome of heat over the continent," in a Sydney Morning Herald report. Dr Karl Braganza is Manager of Climate Modelling at the Bureau of Meteorology.

The Bureau statement says the spatial extent of the heatwave is highly unusual resulting in many individual station temperatures and national average temperature records being broken, "To date (data up to the 6 January 2013) the national area-average for each of the first 6 days of 2013 has been in the top 20 hottest days on record, with 6 January the fifth hottest on record and the first time 5 consecutive days over 39 °C has ever been recorded for Australia." says the statement.

Read Previous article: Extreme Heatwave for Australia January 2013 - bushfire strikes.

Listen to Alasdair Hainsworth from the Bureau of Meteorology being interviewed on the ABC 7.30pm on 8 January 2013 (Youtube)

Here is the text of the BoM statement in full as updated by BOM on 14 January:

Extreme Heatwave for Australia January 2013 - bushfires strike

Note: article may be updated over coming days.

Jan 18: Sydney swelters setting new record temperature of 45.8C Friday 18 January while fires across southern states continue to burn out of control.

Jan 5: A heatwave covering 70 per cent of Australia that started on January 3 has sparked catastrophic bushfires. Tasmania has so far been the most devastated by fire with more than 100 houses and businesses razed, the Tasman peninsula cutoff, without power, and thousands evacuated by boat to Hobart. The Temperature soared in Hobart setting new records for highest daily minimum overnight temperature of 23.4C and a new maximum temperature of 41.3C.

Other states are also experiencing bushfires, but have so far brought the fires mostly under control. The heatwave is expected to last over a week with elevated temperatures particularly in inland areas. It is very unusual that a heat wave covers such a large area of the continent at one time, according to Karl Braganza, manager of climate monitoring at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Australia's weather has switched to hot and dry after one of the wettest two year periods in Australia's history influenced by an extremely strong La Nina event.

Related: Scientists outline health limits of heat stress with Climate Change (May 2010) | Flooding rains now burning plains - Bushfire risk and climate change (Oct 2011) | Logging of Victorian mountain ash forests increases bushfire risk (Oct 2011) | Intact native Forests mitigate bushfire in a warming climate (Nov 2011) | CSIRO - Climate change impacts on fire weather

Drying trend in Australia still evident despite wettest two year period on record

Back-to-back La Niña events has produced the wettest two year period on record for Australia according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two year rainfall total for 2010-2011 of 1409 mm, eclipsed the old record of 1407 mm set during the big wet of 1973-1974. But underlying this wet record is a strong drying trend in the southeast and southwest of the continent with a consistent reduction in Autumn and winter rainfall and streamflow which are important for both agriculture and water storage.

Pacific climate change: temperatures rise, sea levels increase, rainfall changing

A major new report on climate change in the Pacific Ocean region reports that the region is getter hotter, sea levels are rising, rainfall is changing and equatorial winds have weakened. While cyclone may tend to decrease slightly in the future, cyclone intensity is likely to be greater.

The report launched today - Climate change in the Pacific, scientific assessment and new research - contains 530 pages in 2 volumes with over 100 authors. The research was led by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) with strong input from 15 National Meteorological Services, Geoscience Australia, and from universities in the region. The report includes observations and climate projections for 15 partner countries involved : Cook Islands, East Timor, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

Sea Level Rise and Australia

Average global sea level is rising at the fastest rate in 2000 years according to scientists, and north and western Australia is copping more than double the global average in sea level rise. The rate of increase has accelerated in the last 20 years which has been attributed by scientists to thermal expansion, small glacier melt and accelerating ice sheet loss from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice caps caused by climate change and global warming. A peer reviewed scientific study published in June 2011 from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has shown the rate of Sea level rise is connected to global temperature rise.

According to the CSIRO (PDF) "From 1870 to 2007, the global average sea level rose by close to 200mm. Sea levels rose at an average of 1.7mm per year during the 20th century and about 3.0mm per year from 1993-2009. These levels are global averages and because of the differing movements of ocean currents around the globe, results vary from place to place. This is true for Australia where since 1993 levels have risen 7-10mm per year in the north and west, and 1.5-3mm in the south and east."

Cape Grim Greenhouse gas website launched by CSIRO

The CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology have launched a website showing the monthly data for greenhouse gases measured at the windswept Cape Grim Station located in the path of the roaring forties on the west coast of Tasmania. Cape Grim is one of three important baseline atmospheric stations for measuring background greenhouse gases, the other two being Mauna Loa in the middle of the Pacific and Alert Weather Station on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic. About 15 other stations around the world also collect and track atmospheric emissions data.

Perth setting new summer temperature records

It is a long hot summer in Perth with new temperature records being set. Perth has just broken its record for the greatest number of consecutive warm nights. The last 14 consecutive nights the temperatures has remained above 20 degrees. The previous record was 13 days in February-March 1985 and February-March 1990.

For day time temperatures Perth has endured 21 consecutive days of temperatures over 30 degrees. Perth is predicted to swelter for at least another week in over 30 degree heat. It is very likely this will be Perth's hottest summer on record with the previous record being 25 consecutive days of temperatures above 30 degrees.

Sea Surface temperatures continue to climb around Australia

According to the The Bureau of Meteorology in the annual climate statement for 2010 released on January 5, 2010:

Based on preliminary data (to November 30), sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were +0.54 °C above the 1961 to 1990 average. This is the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October and November. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring. The most recent decade (2001−2010) was also the warmest decade on record for sea surface temperatures following the pattern observed over land.

According to the European Environment Agency "Global sea surface temperature is approximately 1 degree C higher now than 140 years ago, and is one of the primary physical impacts of climate change."