State of Australian Climate 2024 paints a worsening picture: 13 graphs and maps

 

Australia's climate is worsening, driven by accelerating climate change, according to the latest assessment by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO. 

Buckle up people. Expect longer, more intense extreme heat events. Heat events kill more people than all other extreme weather events combined. 

Australia has now warmed by 1.51 degrees Centigrade.

South West Australia and South East Australia will get drier. But when it rains, heavy short term rain events are becoming more intense. That means more flash flooding. It also has iimplications for agriculture.

The hotter, drier climate means longer fire season, a more extreme fire season. We are seeing more pyrocumulonimbus (Pyro CB) fires when a bushfire starts generating its own weather firestorm. Larger fires mean more smoke that can travel for hundreds even thousands of kilometres with the air pollution particulates affecting people in distant towns and cities. More people are dying from smoke related conditions.

Guest Post: CSIRO must ensure climate science is maintained says Sea level Rise expert John Church

This is a guest post from the Conversation by John Church, CSIRO on the savage cuts to climate science and public good research by the management team at Australia's premier research institution: the Commonwealth Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). See my previous article from February: Climate science CSIRO job cuts labelled as science vandalism.

Parts of CSIRO’s climate science capability axed from the organisation could be absorbed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, according to media reports this week.

Under cuts announced in early February by chief executive Larry Marshall and Oceans and Atmosphere Director Ken Lee, CSIRO could lose 100 staff from the Oceans and Atmosphere business unit, mostly in the climate area, as part of a total of 350 job losses across the organisation. The cuts represent a reduction in CSIRO’s role in doing science for the public good. Marshall stated that the research focus would shift towards mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Climate science CSIRO job cuts labelled as science vandalism

The announced staff cuts and restructure announced by CSIRO CEO Larry Marshall have been labelled as science vandalism and an abandonment of Australia's scientific commitments under the Paris Agreement signed by Australia less than 2 months ago.

Australian climate science is essential for collecting data and provide good modelling and projections for Australia's variable but warming climate for agricultural, economic and health impacts. It is also vital for studying the southern hemisphere impacts of a changing Antarctica and Southern Ocean on the global climate. Our climate research from the southern hemisphere is highly important to global research programs and climate models.

The Abbott/Turnbull Government cut $112 million from CSIRO's budget in 2014. Turnbull promised $90 million in December 2015 to support innovation and increased commercialisation of research. A further $28 million was allocated to marketing the Government innovation policy.

Jellyfish and #climate change: Abbott's CSIRO budget cuts halt Queensland marine stinger forecasting research

Jellyfish, jellyfish. I hope you love jellyfish! We are creating just the right conditions in our oceans for more jellyfish, including the deadly species of Box jellyfish and Irukandji. We are changing our marine environment giving an advantage to jellyfish over the fish we love to catch and eat, and also giving jellyfish a chance to roam further with warming sea surface temperatures due to climate change.

Some of those jellyfish are also very venomous and can deliver lethal stings requiring emergency treatment and hospitalisation that cost our health system and the reputation of our tourism industry. Australian marine scientists have developed a proto-type method for Northern Queensland for forecasting peak times for marine stingers, especially the deadly Irukandji species. But the Abbott Government budget cuts to CSIRO funding in 2014 have brought this research to a stand-still. The reduced funding and employment in marine science comes just as these venomous jellyfish are also spreading their range with warming seas creating a wider Australian, and indeed global health problem.

Jellyfish population blooms are trending upwards (Brotz et al 2012), an indicator of marine ecosystems out of balance due to oceans changing much more rapidly due to human influences over the last century.

Climate change gives a clear signal in 2014 State of the climate Australia report

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO have published their latest State of the Climate report for Australia for 2014 which shows a clear signal of anthropogenic climate change for the Australian region.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott says that climate change is occurring but refuses to acknowledge that this is overwhelmingly caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. He says he believes in the science and then continues dismantling the small amount of climate mitigation policies we have in place in the carbon price, Clean Energy Finance Corporation, Climate Change Authority, and appointing Dick Warbuton an advowed climate sceptic and anti-wind advocate to chair the Renewable Energy Target review panel.

Professor Neville Nicholls from Monash University, writing in a post at the Conversation, clearly articulated the dangers in not taking appropriate climate action:

"...we are already seeing the impact of more severe heat events and more weather conducive to fire activity.

Heat events and bushfires already cause increased death and illness, as well as destroying property and damaging infrastructure. The recent increases in the climate drivers of severe heat events and bushfires have exacerbated the risks.

These heatwaves and bushfires are bringing home the reality of climate change. They affect Australian families and their homes – they are not something that happens to other people a long way away, or will happen to us a long time in the future. They are a clear and present danger to us, right now.

The Climate Change Authority last week, after extensive analysis of scientific conclusions, economic modelling and examining climate action happening on an international scale recommended that our greenhouse gas emissions target be lifted to 19 per cent by 2020 from 5 per cent on 2000 levels.

Pacific climate change: temperatures rise, sea levels increase, rainfall changing

A major new report on climate change in the Pacific Ocean region reports that the region is getter hotter, sea levels are rising, rainfall is changing and equatorial winds have weakened. While cyclone may tend to decrease slightly in the future, cyclone intensity is likely to be greater.

The report launched today - Climate change in the Pacific, scientific assessment and new research - contains 530 pages in 2 volumes with over 100 authors. The research was led by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) with strong input from 15 National Meteorological Services, Geoscience Australia, and from universities in the region. The report includes observations and climate projections for 15 partner countries involved : Cook Islands, East Timor, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

Flooding rains now burning plains - Bushfire risk and climate change

Grass fires and bushfires are starting already, and it is only early October - with bushfire season officially still nearly a month away. The extremely wet season Australia had at the end of 2010 and start of 2011, brought on by one of the strongest La Niña on record, has stimulated vegetation growth and is set to cause great concern as it dries and cures in the summer heat with the onset of the summer bushfire season.

Bushfire CRC | CSIRO - Climate change impacts on fire weather

Sea Level Rise and Australia

Average global sea level is rising at the fastest rate in 2000 years according to scientists, and north and western Australia is copping more than double the global average in sea level rise. The rate of increase has accelerated in the last 20 years which has been attributed by scientists to thermal expansion, small glacier melt and accelerating ice sheet loss from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice caps caused by climate change and global warming. A peer reviewed scientific study published in June 2011 from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has shown the rate of Sea level rise is connected to global temperature rise.

According to the CSIRO (PDF) "From 1870 to 2007, the global average sea level rose by close to 200mm. Sea levels rose at an average of 1.7mm per year during the 20th century and about 3.0mm per year from 1993-2009. These levels are global averages and because of the differing movements of ocean currents around the globe, results vary from place to place. This is true for Australia where since 1993 levels have risen 7-10mm per year in the north and west, and 1.5-3mm in the south and east."

Forests play a major role as carbon sink say scientists

The world's forests remove over one quarter of current annual human carbon emissions from the atmosphere each year, the equivalent of about 2.4 billion tonnes of carbon according to the latest published scientific research. An international team of scientists, including from the US Forests Service and the Australian CSIRO, have quantified the greenhouse gas carbon sink provided by the world's tropical, temperate and boreal forests.

"This is really a timely breakthrough with which we can now clearly demonstrate how forests and changes in landscape such as wildfire or forest regrowth impact the removal or release of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)," says Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO co-author of the paper: A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests. "What this research tells us is that forests play a much larger role as carbon sinks as a result of tree growth and forest expansion."

4 Degrees or More? Climate Change: The Critical Decade - a speech by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

This was the 1st keynote address to the Four degrees or more? conference Australia in a hot world which is currently meeting in Melbourne. After a day and a half of listening to climate scientists detailing the present climate impacts and future projections, understandably I, and many others, felt a little depressed.

But most of these scientists and other delegates are possessed of a human optimism that the challenge can be overcome. That human society has the technical and engineering capability to avoiding a 4 degree or higher world, to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius as agreed to in Copenhagen in 2009 and affirmed in Cancun in 2010.

Scientist: Less rain across southern Australia a long term climate trend

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is increasing atmospheric temperatures changing the dynamic of the sub-tropical jet stream and thus the number and intensity of storms bringing autumn and winter rainfall to southern Australia, according to CSIRO climate scientist Dr Jorgen Frederiksen. He was addressing the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics conference in Melbourne this week regarding recent research on changes to atmospheric circulation, storm intensity and reduction in winter rainfall in Australia.

Cape Grim Greenhouse gas website launched by CSIRO

The CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology have launched a website showing the monthly data for greenhouse gases measured at the windswept Cape Grim Station located in the path of the roaring forties on the west coast of Tasmania. Cape Grim is one of three important baseline atmospheric stations for measuring background greenhouse gases, the other two being Mauna Loa in the middle of the Pacific and Alert Weather Station on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic. About 15 other stations around the world also collect and track atmospheric emissions data.

Scientist warns against global warming complacency due to cold spells, floods

An Australian scientist has warned against misinterpreting the cold spells in Europe and North America and the heavy rains and flooding in Australia as climate change not occurring. Barrie Hunt, an Honorary Research Fellow with the CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, said that seasonal cold spells will still be expected under enhanced greenhouse conditions and that the long term trend is that the global climate is warming.

“Despite 2010 being a very warm year globally, the severity of the 2009-2010 northern winter and a wetter and cooler Australia in 2010 relative to the past few years have been misinterpreted by some to imply that climate change is not occurring,” said Mr Hunt.

“Recent wet conditions in eastern Australia mainly reflect short-term climate variability and weather events, not longer-term climate change trends. Conclusions that climate is not changing are based on a misunderstanding of the roles of climatic change caused by increasing greenhouse gases and climatic variability due to natural processes in the climatic system."

Brayton Cycle Solar Thermal power under development by CSIRO

Image: CSIRO

The CSIRO has begun installing 450 large heliostats (mirrors) for a Brayton Cycle solar thermal tower system, the largest of it type in the world, located at the CSIRO National Solar Energy Centre in Newcastle.

The mirrors are manufactured locally at Wyong on the Central Coast by Performance Engineering, a company specialising in automotive manufacturing. The panels are manufactured with a lightweight steel frame with a simple design highly suited for mass production for commercialisation of the technology.

Climate scepticism, anthropogenic global warming and drought in south east Australia

With the release of the CSIRO report on Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia (CSIRO: South East Australia becoming drier, Global Warming implicated) CSIRO hydrologist and lead author Dr David Post has come under criticism for comments on whether anthropogenic global warming has contributed to drought conditions in south east Australia.

Dr David Post said in a CSIRO media release on October 22 that "The research indicates that these changes can be linked to global warming, making it a likely contributor to the recent drought."

In January 2010 David Post released a report on the potential climate impacts regarding Water Yield availability in Tasmania. He was interviewed in regard to this report in the Canberra Times and was attributed with saying there was "no evidence" linking drought to climate change in eastern Australia: "At this stage, we'd prefer to say we're talking about natural variability. The science is not sufficiently advanced to say it's climate change, one way or the other. The jury is still out on that," (Canberra Times, Jan 19, 2010 - Jury still out on climate change: CSIRO.

CSIRO: South East Australia becoming drier, Global Warming implicated

Caption: Figure 1. Rainfall deciles across Australia for 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2009; deciles based on climatology from 1900 to 2009 (Bureau of Meteorology) - from the report

A new report into the changing climate of South East Australia and particularly the Murray Darling Basin indicates an increasing risk of below average rainfall and runoff into streams and generally drier conditions. The change in the climate has, at least in part, been attributed to an increase in atmospheric anthropogenic greenhouse gases associated with global warming.

The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) report: Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia, highlights the effects of climate variability and change on the water resources of the south-east which should have major implications for water allocations planning currently under consideration by the Murray Darling Basin Authority and in community hearings. The research was undertaken by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology.

New Solar Power station to run on sun and air say CSIRO scientists

A brief ray of sunshine in the gloomy reports of impending climate disaster. CSIRO is about to build a new research solar power tower at it's National Solar Energy Centre in Newcastle that uses just the sun's energy and heated air in a Brayton turbine to produce electricity. This is innovative renewable technology - the largest of its type in the world - to combat use of fossil fuels and climate change, to be built and fully operational by March 2011.

Most solar thermal power plants utilise the sun's energy to heat water to steam to turn turbines to make electricity. Often this is problematic as the best places for capturing solar energy are arid environments where water is often scarce. The CSIRO's new solar power tower eliminates use of water and uses air in a Brayton turbine to produce electricity.

The project has received $5million in funding for building and two years research from the Australian Solar Institute (ASI), a Federal Government initiative.

"The new technology will pave the way for solar power of the future - solar power that only requires the sun and air to create electricity," said the Director of CSIRO's Energy Transformed Flagship, Dr Alex Wonhas. "The field will be used to refine the technology in order to make it a cheaper, more efficient energy source that is suitable for many desert locations in Australia, and the world."

"This new facility will allow us to improve our science by using a real-world, operating solar thermal field to test ways to make the process more efficient and reduce the cost of this clean technology." said Dr Alex Wonhas.

The power station facility will consist of around 450 mirrors (heliostats) that will direct solar heat onto a 30 metre high tower to produce super-heated compressed air for a Brayton Cycle turbine. The facility will have a thermal capacity of about one megawatt, with the brayton cycle turbine rated at about 200kw which could provide electricity to about 100 homes.

The heliostat field will cover an area of 4,000 square metres and the tower will operate at temperatures above 900 degrees Celsius.

Research is also being conducted on site in thermal storage techniques, particularly using molten salts. During the day when the facility is producing heat and power, some of the energy would be used for super heating salt which would be stored in tanks and could be utilised overnight or during peak load demand times to drive the turbine generating electricity on demand.

The new solar tower and it's heliostat field will be located next to an existing solar tower field that creates SolarGas - a combination of water and natural gas - at the National Solar Energy Centre site at Newcastle, New South Wales.

SolarGas is a solar thermal technology that combines natural gas and solar energy to boost the efficiency of natural gas by about 25 per cent, which results in reduced emissions when used to produce electricity. The Queensland Government has committed $7.5 million towards the CSIRO SolarGas One project - a 4 megawatt power plant of 5 solar towers and mirror fields which will be the world's first multi-tower solar array system using SolarGas technology.

Australia has been a significant innovator in early research and development of solar technologies particularly during the 1970s, but Government and industry support for commercialisation was sadly lacking with industrial development and commercialisation often going offshore. According to Australia Solar Energy Society chairman John Grimes "Our golden opportunity was in the '70s. We led all solar fields but we squandered it. It's heartbreaking really." he said in this article on Government neglect for the solar power industry from the Courier Mail.

Visit the CSIRO for a 5 minute podcast explaining the innovative nature of this new solar power tower and storage system: Time to shine for CSIRO's new solar thermal field



Takver is a citizen journalist from Melbourne who has been writing on Climate Change issues and protests including Rising Sea Level, Ocean acidification, Environmental and social Impacts since 2004.

Scientists affirm Australia's climate already changing

Caption: Temperature trend 1960-2009 - BOM

In a joint statement released on Monday by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology the stark facts on global warming were outlined: that Australia's climate has already changed with more extremely hot days, fewer cold ones, wetter in the north and drier in the south-east and south-west.The statement outlined in five sections a snapshot of temperature, rainfall, oceans, atmosphere, and what this means for Australia in coming decades.

At the launch of the statement Dr Greg Ayers, Director of the Bureau of Meteorology said that climate change is real with impeccable data being collected for more than 100 years: "Australia holds one of the best national climate records in the world," Dr Ayers said. "It's there for anyone and everyone to see, use and analyse."

CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Megan Clark said "With this snapshot, Australians will be better prepared for the next step of planning for how to adapt to a changing climate and how to also take action to reduce the impacts of climate change. CSIRO has been working with industry and in sectors of the economy such as agriculture to prepare for and implement necessary changes."

The veracity of human caused climate change has been under attack from climate sceptics and denialists in recent months. Professor Peter Coaldrake, Chair of Universities Australia, commented that "Climate science has taken the brunt of the attack. Now is the time to stand up for the quality of Australian science and research and to emphasise the need for evidence-based policy outcomes that recognise the lessons from science." he said about the statement which "confirms the clear view of top Australian scientists, expert in the field, that Australia's climate is changing."



Caption: annual rainfall trend 1960-2009 - BOM

The statement details that the mean temperature has increased by 0.7 degrees from 1960 to 2009, but with some areas experiencing 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming. The greatest warming has ocurred during spring - a mean average of 0.9 degrees.

While annual rainfall has remained stable averaged out across the continent, there is a strong trend for more rain in central and northern Australia, and less in the southwest, south, southeast, and east coasts, where much of the population is located.

Rising global sea level has ocurred at a global average of 3mm per year from 1993-2009, but actual sea level changes will vary based upon local ocean currents. Around Australia's coasts sea level has risen 1.5-3mm in the south and east and 7-10mm per year in the north and west. The global average for the 20th century was 1.7mm per year. Mean Sea surface temperatures around Australia have increased by about 0.4°C in the past 50 years.

The oceans of the world currently absorb about 25% of the human generated carbon emissions resulting in ocean acidification. Carbon dioxide is more easily dissolved by cold water - shelled marine life are particularly under threat in the Southern Ocean and the Arctic with far reaching implications for the whole food chain, ocean ecology and biodiversity threatening a major marine extinction.




Caption: atmospheric CO2 measured at Cape Grim - BOM

The Cape Grim baseline air pollution station, operated jointly by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology in an isolated spot on north-western Tasmania, provides vital information about changes to the atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere.These air pollution stations tend to be isolated from urban areas to avoid industrial contamination. Similar stations are based at Baring Head near Wellington, New Zealand, and on top of Mauna Loa, Hawai. The data from Cape Grim shows atmospheric CO2 increasing to 386ppm in 2009. Atmospheric methane, an even stronger greenhouse gas, is also increasing.

Over the last 50 years each decade has been warmer than the one before, with 2000 - 2009 being the warmest decade on record with Australia's Climate sizzling.

So what are the projections for the future? An average temperature rise by 0.6 to 1.5 ºC by 2030. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at business as usual levels, warming is projected to be in the range of 2.2 to 5.0 ºC by 2070. Temperatures will be moderated near the coast and in Tasmania and higher in central and north-western Australia. Most of this temperature increase will be felt through an increase in the number of hot days. Expect less rainfall southern areas of Australia during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and in south-west Western Australia during autumn. An increase in the number of dry days is expected across the country. It is likely that there will be an increase in intense rainfall events in many areas, like the one in March which extended from Northern Territory to Victoria, including a major hail storm.

Now we just need action to curtail carbon emissions while the Federal Government continues to push it's amended and flawed CPRS scheme and the Opposition it's pitiful direct action plan. Both clear examples of talking green and doing next to nothing - greenwashing - while State Governments continue to subsidise polluting electricity generators, coal export and development of new mines such as the World's largest coal mine: the Waratah Coal Galilee mine in central Queensland.

Background

• CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology Statement, March 15, 2010 - State of the Climate

Takver is a citizen journalist from Melbourne who has been writing on Climate Change issues and protests including Rising Sea Level, Ocean acidification, Environmental and social Impacts since 2004.

Can Perth become the first geothermally cooled city?

While the world debates emissions targets and climate funding amounts for developing countries in Copenhagen, a new research centre was launched in Perth on December 3 dedicated to developing technologies designed to help establish sustainable, low-emission, geothermal cities. At the same time the State Government is planning to double the number of coal-fired power stations at Collie.

Marine Scientists call for climate action over Ocean Warming and Acidification

A Marine Climate Change reportcard released by Australian Scientists has warned that: ocean temperatures have warmed; the flow of the East Australian Current has strengthened, and will likely increase a further 20% by 2100; Marine biodiversity is changing in south-east Australia in response; and declines of over 10% in growth rates of massive corals on the Great Barrier Reef are likely due to ocean acidification and thermal stress.

This reportcard is the first-ever Australian benchmark of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and options for adaptation. The report identifies key adaption measures but emphasises the needd for "immediate and vigorous international diplomacy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

"The objective of compiling this information is to consider options available to environmental and resource managers in their response to changes in ecosystem balance," said project leader, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship scientist Dr Elvira Poloczanska.

"On both sides of the continent there is clear evidence of ocean warming and this is already bringing sub-tropical species south into temperate waters, and in the case of the giant kelp forests in Tasmania, appears to be having a severe impact in just a few years."