Australia on track for 82 percent renewables target by 2030; IEA notes global acceleration in Renewables

Looking at 2023 renewables achieved a 38.4 percent average share of the electricity grid in Australia. This puts Australia just about on track to meet the 82 per cent renewables by 2030 target. 

Keep in mind Utility scale solar is still ramping up. New onshore wind farms are in the development pipeline. Offshore wind will only start coming into the system around 2030 but will rapidly ramp up in subsequent years. 

The IEA has also released a new report on the acceleration of renewasbles, which puts the target of tripling renewables globally by 2030 within reach if governments implement key policy measures.

Andrew Forrest's Squadron Energy’s has turned the shovel on the 414 MW 69 turbine Uungula Wind Farm near Wellington in NSW on Thursday, within the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone and has an approved connection to the existing transmission grid. Squadron Energy has a commitment to delivering 14GW of green electricity, powering the equivalent of six million homes. There is a further 6GW in Squadron’s development pipeline to follow.

2023 set new global temperatures record at 1.48C anomaly above pre-industrial: Copernicus

Last year, 2023, at 1.48C anomaly averaged over the whole year, came within a whisker of being 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures. The Eurpean Copernicus Climate Change Service has released its latest analysis for the year past. Have no doubt we have a climate emergency. This year, 2024, is likely to build upon the land and ocean warming, particularly with an El Nino in play, to produce an even hotter year, with more extreme weather events.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service said "2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes. Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.”  

Meanwhile, Fossil Fuel producers like Australia, Norway, US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China UAE, Azerbijan are expanding production to cook the planet and all of us, when the science based assessments clearly say we have too much fossil fuels already in production.

70% chance that global greenhouse gas emissions start falling in 2024 if clean energy and EV trends continue.

Ahead of the UN Climate Conference in Dubai, COP28, Climate Analytics researched when global greenhouse gas emissions may peak. There is a 70% chance global emissions may peak in 2023.  COP28 needs to push strongly for tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions, and phasing out fossil fuels.

Based on the science, The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. 

Emissions are set to rise again in 2023.

The analysis shows there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions. 

This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions – meeting the IPCC deadline.

The report says that the "continued explosive growth of wind and solar in particular would push fossil fuels out of the power sector, leading to peak coal in 2023 and peak gas in 2024. Meanwhile, continued growth in electric vehicles could lead to peak oil in 2025.

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Emissions dangerously increasing and heading for 2.9 degrees C global warming on current policies

This is the 14th Emissions Gap Report. It is published ahead of the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28).  Definitely a broken record with the United Nations and scientists continually warning of the emissions gap between national policies, pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions- NDCs) and what the science says the targets we need to achieve in reducing emissions.

The report's main highlights are:

• Predicted 2030 emissions must fall by 28-42 per cent for pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C 
• Relentless mitigation and low-carbon transformations essential to narrow emissions gap 
• COP28 and Global Stocktake provide an oportunity to build greater ambition for next round of climate pledges 

UN Secretary General called the emissions gap "more like an emissions canyon.  A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records.  All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity."

Until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever according to the WMO, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.  In a record first, 2 days during November exceeded 2.0C of warming based on Global average temperatures reported by .Copernicus ECMWF.

The report finds that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022.

State of Climate Action Report 2023 finds World behind on almost every policy required to cut carbon emissions

This is a major science based assessment of global efforts for climate action to reduce emissions. It found that Coal must be phased out seven times faster, Deforestation must be reduced four times faster, public transport around the world built out six times faster than at present, to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown. Altogether it found that 41 of 42 indicators assessed were not on track to achieve their 2030 targets. 

Progress for more than half of these indicators remains well off track, such that recent efforts must accelerate at least twofold this decade. Worse still, another six indicators are heading in the wrong direction entirely.

Production Gap 2023 Report: Australia's disconnect on net zero emissions while expanding fossil fuel production

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) released the Global Production Gap Report on 8 November 2023. Governments in aggregate are planning to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. This includes Australia.

The assessment for Australia highlighted that Ministers had rejected calls to ban new fossil fuel projects, that some 69 coal projects and 49 new oil and gas projects are in the pipeline which represent nearly 5 GtCO2eq of potential emissions. Fossil fuel production is a major source of Australia’s domestic emissions, accounting for 19% of the total in 2021.

The Federal Labor Government has approved 10 new or extended coal or gas projects since coming to power in May 2022.

At the launch UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called it "a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness." 

Earth's hottest 12 month period with most of the temperature increase due to burning fossil fuels

Analysis by climate scientists at Climate Central has highlighted we have just gone through the hottest 12 month period in recorded history (November 2022-October 2023), with an average global  temperature of 1.3C above pre-industrial temperatures.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) also reported that 2023 is on track to become the warmest year after record October. They report that October 2023 was 1.7°C above the average for 1850-1900, designated as the pre-industrial reference period. October marked the fifth consecutive month of record temperatures globally.

"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated. We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43°C above the preindustrial average. The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher," said Samantha Burgess, C3S’ Deputy Director.

Global Forests action failing says report with increase in deforestation in 2022 putting at risk 2030 Forests target

In 2022, global gross deforestation reached 6.6 million hectares worldwide and was 21 percent higher than needed to eliminate deforestation by 2030 says a new report..

The loss of primary tropical forests reached 4.1 million hectares and is even further off track—the loss was 33 percent higher than the needed trajectory to halt primary forest loss by the end of the decade.

This backslide puts forest goals even farther out of reach after the small but insufficient progress made in 2021.

Nothing less than a radical transformation of development pathways, finance flows, and governance effectiveness and enforcement is required to shift the world’s trajectory to achieve the 2030 forest goals advises the report.

Turning a corner on fossil fuels, but energy transition needs still to ramp up further to keep 1.5C alive says IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2023 (IEA report) 

Quick summary:

• Just based on current policy settings, by 2030 clean technologies play a significantly greater role.
• This includes almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide;
• Solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system does currently;
• Renewables’ share of the global electricity mix nearing 50%, up from around 30% today;
• Heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally;
• Three times as much investment going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal- and gas-fired power plants.

But stronger measures would still be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

The report projects the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply, declines from around 80% to 73% by 2030, with global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions peaking by 2025.

Without an acceleration in action, Global emissions would still push up global average temperatures by around 2.4 °C this century, well above the key threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.

Climate Breakdown has begun warns UN Secretary General as world experiences hottest June-August period on record.

You know things are serious  when the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres escalates the rhetoric. On 6th September he commented on the latest World Meteorological Organisation report saying that Climate Breakdown has begun.

"The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting.

"Our planet has just endured a season of simmering — the hottest summer on record.  Climate breakdown has begun.

"Scientists have long warned what our fossil fuel addiction will unleash.  Our climate is imploding faster than we can cope with extreme weather events hitting every corner of the planet.

"Surging temperatures demand a surge in action.  Leaders must turn up the heat now for climate solutions.  We can still avoid the worst of climate chaos — and we don’t have a moment to lose."

Climate signals: June 2023 heat records. We have a climate emergency

Have you been watching earth's vital signs recently. I have. They are very concerning. But minimal mainstream reporting of all the signals and temperature records being broken.

Jeff Berardelli, Florida based WFLA News Channel 8’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist described the situation:

"In my 3 decade-long career being a weather forecaster, and now Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist, I have never observed so many of Earth’s vital signs blinking red. Meteorologists and climate scientists all around the world are in awe by the simultaneous literal “off the charts” records being broken. Yes, it’s climate change."

Let us start with this twitter thread by Assaad Razzouk (@AssaadRazzouk)

Guest Post: Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead

 

Marcin Jozwiak/Unsplash, CC BY

Pep Canadell, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Judith Hauck, Universität Bremen; Julia Pongratz, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; Philippe Ciais, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA); Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter; Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, and Rob Jackson, Stanford University

Global carbon dioxide emissions from all human activities remain at record highs in 2022, and fossil fuel emissions have risen above pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by an international body of scientists.

The analysis, by the Global Carbon Project, calculates Earth’s “carbon budget”, which is how much CO₂ humans have released, and how much has been removed from the atmosphere by the oceans and land ecosystems. From there, we calculate how much carbon can still be emitted into the atmosphere before Earth exceeds the crucial 1.5℃ global warming threshold.

This year, the world is projected to emit 40.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ from all human activities, leaving 380 billion tonnes of CO₂ as the remaining carbon budget. This amount of emissions is disastrous for the climate – at current levels, there is a 50% chance the planet will reach the 1.5℃ global average temperature rise in just nine years.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Urea production Locking in Fossil Fuels greenhouse gas emissions for industrial Food production

A new international report identifies Fossil Fuel fertilisers as an important growth area for coal and gas sectors  as part of the petrochemical industry. Plastics and Nitrogen fertilisers are both products of fossil fuels that continue to lock us in to systemic fossil fuel consumption. 

Fossil fertilisers create greenhouse gas emissions at every stage of production to their use in industrial agriculture. They lock our food system productivity into continued greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal or Gas are major sources for nitrogen fertiliser, turning methane into Ammonia through steam reformation, and then into Urea and water. 

Here in Victoria the recently published Victorian Greenhouse Gas emissions report to 2020 highlighted the increased Urea use, while this detail was buried very deeply in the report and few have commented on the massive expansion of Urea use in Victorian agriculture over the last thirty years. (See lead graph for Victoria Urea application.)

"The total area of crop cultivation almost doubled, from 1.8 to 3.5 million hectares between 1990 and 2020, while the application of fertilisers increased from just under 50,000 to 328,000 tonnes of nitrogen (an increase of 561%) over this period. This also contributed to a significant increase in urea application emissions which grew nearly seven-fold between 1990 and 2020 (Figure 40), with particularly strong growth in the last decade (DCCEEW 2022a)." said the Victoria report.

Time to wake up to the climate emergency says Christina Figueres

Extinction Rebellion and student climate strike movement civil disobedience actions receives support from Christiana Figueres to wake us up to the climate emergency.

Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Christiana Figueres, is an important architect of the Paris Agreement negotiated in 2015.

She has released a video statement on the importance of civil disobedience and protests by #ExtinctionRebellion and the Student #climatestrike in waking us up to the #climateemergency and need for political action on climate change.

Australian politicians and #climateelection candidates should all watch, take note, and undertake ambitious action if elected. There is no more time for delay or denial.

Here in Australia the student climate strike has 3 simple basic demands:

* Stop Adani coal mine
* No new coal or gas projects
* 100 percent renewables by 2030 target

Anything less than this, does not respect the science and the threat to society from climate breakdown.

Paris Agreement Rulebook (mostly) delivered at COP24 but ambition still lacking

Well The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Katowice - COP24 - did give us a deal, it did provide the Paris Rulebook (mostly), but it failed to substantially increase ambition.

For the moment it kept the momentum of the Paris Agreement Moment alive, despite the climate denial of the Trump administration, and despite Brazil's new President elect Jair Bolsanaro.

The negotiations were highly technical focusing on the detail of the Paris Agreement, the so called rule book for how to apply, implement and operationalize the agreement signed in Paris three years ago. The UNFCCC works by consensus by the 197 parties, so achieving agreement is always difficult, and when it gets down to the fine details even more so.

The science has become very clear that we need to rapidly act to reduce emissions, so the glacial pace of negotiations is very frustrating. Delays and incremental advancement is as good as failure.

Climate policies on the rise globally, but ambition level still lacking

The latest assessment of country emissions and climate policies aggregated globally shows that there is still a substantial gap to meet, according to Climate Analytics, who have been analysing and tracking country climate policies and global emissions for the last decade on their Climate Action Tracker website.

If all governments achieve their largely insufficient climate targets, the world will see 3.0˚C of warming by 2100, twice the 1.5˚C limit they agreed in Paris three years ago their latest analysis shows. This analysis does not include the potential for climate feedbacks and tipping points in the climate system that might boost the level of global warming to 'Hothouse Earth' conditions (Study).

Current Government pledges in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would lead to warming of 3.3˚C.

If governments were to implement the planned or additional policies they have in the pipeline, warming would also be limited to 3.0°C by 2100.

Guest Post: Carbon emissions will reach 37 billion tonnes in 2018, a record high

Pep Canadell, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, and Rob Jackson, Stanford University

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to rise more than 2% (range 1.8% to 3.7%) in 2018, taking global fossil CO₂ emissions to a new record high of 37.1 billion tonnes.

The strong growth is the second consecutive year of increasing emissions since the 2014-16 period when emissions stabilised, further slowing progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement that require a peak in greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. Strong growth in emissions from the use of coal, oil and natural gas suggests CO₂ emissions are likely to increase further in 2019.

Ambitious plan to bend global emissions curve by 2020, while Australia continues Adani coal push

At Google HQ in London an ambitious plan was launched by former UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres to accelerate climate action and bend the global emissions curve down by 2020.

Figueres outlined six areas where action was needed to make 2020 a real turning point in the global emissions trend. For the last 3 years global emissions have been flat despite rising global GDP, a sign that economies are increasingly becoming disengaged from processes of carbon pollution.

While in Australia the Liberal National Party Federal Government lead by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is keenly supporting the Adani Carmichael coal mine development, supported by the Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Guest Post: “We’ll always have Paris”

This detailed, but succinct analysis of the United Nations climate conference at Marrakech, COP22, by the Heinrich Boll Foundation is well worth reading. The authors are Lili Fuhr, Liane Schalatek, and Simon Ilse. The original was published 1 December 2016 and is reproduced here under a Creative Commons- Share-Alike licence.

At the UN’s COP 22 climate conference in Marrakech, the international community closed ranks despite (or perhaps because of?) the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president. Thanks to its swift ratification by currently more than 110 countries, negotiations on the technical implementation of the Paris Agreement could begin. The pace must increase significantly, however, if the 1.5°C limit is still to be met.[1]

The Paris Agreement entered into force on the 4th of November, two days before the opening of the climate conference in Marrakech. A majority of states had ratified the agreement in their national parliaments. Never before have so many countries joined an international agreement in such a short time – a mere ten months. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon praised the determination of the states in the last speech of his tenure at the conference in Marrakech. Shortly thereafter – two days into the summit – the elation vanished abruptly. The clear election victory of Donald Trump – who has called climate change a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese and questioned the gamut of U.S. international commitments – depressed the mood in Marrakech. The well-founded fear that Trump would back out of the Paris Agreement and reverse all of the achievements of his predecessor Barack Obama, or even cancel U.S. membership in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), dominated almost all discussions. The intended broad theme of the conference – climate change in Africa – thus took a back seat.

A lot is at stake for the continent: Africa already suffers heavily from the impacts of climate change. African governments are calling for financial and technological support as well assistance in building their capacity for the implementation of their national climate plans – and not just with regard to climate protection, but especially on the much more urgent issue of climate change adaptation.

Guest Post: Global climate talks move to Marrakesh: Here's what they need to achieve

As the Paris Agreement enters into force on November 4, 2016 this article provides a good summary of what the UN climate talks at Marrakech COP22 needs to do to be broadly seen as successful.

Adil Najam, Boston University and Henrik Selin, Boston University

Even though evidence on an ever-worsening global climate keeps pouring in with alarming frequency, the last 12 months have, in fact, been a relatively good year for global climate policy. Next week, the world’s countries meet in Marrakesh, Morocco, to follow up on the gains made at Paris last year, and to try to reconcile these two facts.