This is the fifteenth annual report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the Emissions Gap. The warning is clear in 2024 that not enough is being done to reduce emissions which will result in catastrophic impacts down the line. Key take aways from the report:
It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today
Continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C
Current commitments for 2030 are not being met; even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C
What needs to be done?
Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in February 2025 – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years.
Photo Credit: Ottawa march for a Plastics Treaty coutesy FoEI via X
The United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Global Plastics Treaty is holding its fourth meeting in Ottawa, Canada from 23–29 April 2024 to prepare a treaty by the end of 2024. Global Plastics pollution is an escalating Crisis that interlinks with the Biodiversity Crisis and Climate Crisis. The Health and environmental impacts of plastics, microplastics and nanoplastics are of increasing concern as more research is done. (See Background Science).
The process for a Global Plastics Treaty was started in March 2022 at the resumed fifth session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-5.2). See my reports of INC1, INC2, INC3.
A Zero Draft of the treaty has been prepared with elements of both common rules for all parties, and a nationally driven policy framework, and many procedural issues still to sort out. Australia is a member of the High Ambition Coalitionto End Plastics Pollution, which put out this joint Ministerial statement before INC4.
INC4 wrapped up with some progess made, decision on intercessional work covering several issues but excluding polymer production and reducing production, and kicking the big decisions on plastics regulation down the road. The failure of the High Ambition Coalition to speak up and push more strongly for more ambition by including more in intercessional work at the last plenary is a lost opportunity that may knobble ambition in the treaty that results.
The next negotiation meeting - INC5 - is due in November in Busan, South Korea.
Comments on the final day and hours of negotiations:
Negotiations wrapped up at 3.17 am local time in Ottawa with the call from the dais: “Plastics may last forever, but this INC should not!”.
Miko Aliño (@mikoalino) commented on X: "The bridge getting to an ambitious #PlasticsTreaty became much more challenging after #INC4 delegates chose to exclude production reduction measures from intersessional work – a compromise that ignores the full plastics life cycle, contrary to the UNEA Resolution 5/14 mandate."
Earth Negotiations Bulletin (@IISD_ENB) commented on X: "Despite a growth of brackets and new text when #INC4 was meant to streamline, there were some signs of #PlasticTreaty progress, such as agreeing to set a legal drafting group to ensure the text of the new instrument on #plasticpollution is legally sound."
Greenpeace Canada summarised the outcome in a statement highlighting the failure in the High Ambition Coalition (that includes Canada, Australia) to push more strongly for "inclusion of any reference to plastic production or polymers in intersessional work, despite strong support by various countries, scientists and civil society groups. While Canada supported in principle a proposal from Rwanda to add a reduction of production in the intersessional work, the country and various other high ambition coalition governments did not push for it in the final plenary, resulting in a compromised outcome."
Graham Forbes, Greenpeace Head of Delegation to the Global Plastics Treaty negotiations and Global Plastics Campaign Lead at Greenpeace USA, said:
“The world is burning and member states are wasting time and opportunity. We saw some progress, aided by the continued efforts of states such as Rwanda, Peru, and the signatories of the Bridge to Busan declaration in pushing to reduce plastic production. However, compromises were made on the outcome which disregarded plastic production cuts further distancing us from reaching a treaty that science requires and justice demands. People are being harmed by plastic production every day, but states are listening more closely to petrochemical lobbyists than health scientists. Any child can see that we cannot solve the plastic crisis unless we stop making so much plastic. The entire world is watching, and if countries, particularly in the so-called ‘High Ambition Coalition’, don’t act between now and INC5 in Busan, the treaty they are likely to get is one that could have been written by ExxonMobil and their acolytes.
“We are heading towards disaster and with time running out – we need a Global Plastics Treaty that cuts plastic production and ends single-use plastic. There is no time to waste on approaches that will not solve the problem.”
Break Free from Plastics in a statement - INC-4 negotiating countries fail to respond to the magnitude of the plastics crisis - also highlighted the non-inclusion of plastics production in intercessional work as a lost opportunity making the achievement of an ambitious treaty more difficult:
"Today’s decision to exclude upstream measures from the intersessional work means it will be more daunting to include extraction or production reduction measures under the ambit of the draft plastics treaty. This compromise diminishes the ambition of this process as it ignores the central role of plastics production in fueling the climate, biodiversity and pollution crises. This is not only an utter disappointment, but also a missed opportunity to tackle the root causes comprehensively."
Indian based NGO Centre for Financial Accountability (@cfa_ind) did a thread summary of outcomes on X:
"The fourth meeting of the INC for a global agreement to end plastic pollution concluded on April 29 after a plenary full of huddles and the regrettable decision to not include discussions on primary plastic polymers in the intersessional work. "
"Countries decided to move forward with intersessional work on the financial mechanism, as well as on plastic products, chemicals of concern in plastic products, product design, reusability, and recyclability."
"Member States agreed to include observers’ participation during this work. They also decided to create a legal drafting group that will conduct a legal review of the text and provide recommendations to the plenary. "
"The exclusion of upstream measures from intersessional work, however, weakens the plastics treaty's scope. Ignoring plastics production's impact on climate, biodiversity, and pollution crises undermines comprehensive solutions."
"This compromise diminishes ambition and highlights the need for holistic solutions. It's not just disappointing; it's a severe setback in our efforts to combat the plastic pollution crisis."
WWF said in a statement while progress had been made, most of the big decisions that determine how ambitious the treaty will be are still to be made:
“Countries have made important progress in Canada with constructive discussions on what the treaty will actually do, but the big decisions still remain: will we get the strong treaty with common global rules that most of the world is calling for, or will we end up with a voluntary watered-down agreement led by least common denominator values?
"Negotiators need to recognise that plastic pollution is an accelerating global crisis that cannot be solved with fragmented national approaches. Governments must now employ all possible means to step up progress between the meetings on measures that will have the biggest impact on addressing plastic pollution across plastic’s full lifecycle, in particular, global bans on high-risk products and chemicals, global product design requirements and a robust financial package to secure a just transition,” said Eirik Lindebjerg, Global Plastics Policy Lead, WWF International.
During the closing plenary, INC Chair Luis Vayas Valdivieso (Ecuador) proposed, and delegates agreed to establish a legal drafting group to ensure legal clarity in the text of the future agreement. The Committee also established two intersessional expert groups to:
develop an analysis of potential sources and means that could be mobilized, for implementation of the objectives of the instrument, including options for the establishment of a financial mechanism, alignment of financial flows, and catalyzing finance; and
identify and analyze criteria and non-criteria based approaches with regards to plastic pollution and chemicals of concern in plastic products and product design, focusing on recyclability and reusability of plastic products and their uses and applications.
During the course of the day, delegates had considered and modified the streamlined parts of the Revised Draft Text (PDF), on issues related to just transition, the preamble, objective, scope, and the principles that will govern the new agreement, as well as the technical issues to be addressed in the future instrument.
Global Alliance Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA) Global South media conference (Starts 11 mins in):
Europe proposes to adjourn INC4 and hold an INC4.2 to further work
Delphine Levi Alvares (@delphinelevialv) comments on X At 2.16 am, "EU proposes to adjourn rather than close #INC4 and hold an INC4.2 to continue the work. GCC countries are obviously saying no. The group of 'like-minded countries' is brought up again and still has not disclosed who is part of it... Are they ashamed of working together?"
Earth Negotiations Bulletin (@IISD_ENB) on X: "Delegates at #INC4 discuss a European Union, proposal calling for additional time for negotiations before INC-5, calling to adjourn INC-4 and resume the work to identify common areas and landing spots before November 2024. "
Rwanda and Peru propose 40% by 2040 plastics production reduction target
Rwanda and Peru submitted a conference room paper calling for a compilation report of scientific and technical information on sustainable levels of consumption and production of primary plastic polymers, and an open-ended working group to consider options for primary plastic polymers including the implication of no option.
"The science tells us that current and projected levels of plastic consumption and production are unsustainable and far exceed our waste management and recycling capacities. Moreover, these levels of production are also inconsistent with the goal of ending plastic pollution and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees." said a Rwanda statement on intercessional work.
A motion submitted by Rwanda and Peru sets out a global reduction target, ambitiously termed a “north star”, to cut the production of primary plastic polymers across the world by 40% by 2040, from a 2025 baseline.
It says: “The effectiveness of both supply and demand-side measures will be assessed, in whole or in part, on their success in reducing the production of primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels.” (Guardian)
The motion was supported by 29 countries including Australia, Denmark, Nigeria, Portugal, the Netherlands and Nigeria, who signed a declaration, “the Bridge to Busan”, calling on all delegates to ensure plastic production was addressed.
Delegates arriving for the penultimate day of official negotiating time for INC-4 hunkered down, with some Subgroups spending considerable time validating streamlined texts, while others proceeded with line-by-line negotiations. Discussions had become heated in one group late Saturday evening, with some delegations noting that their considerations did not appear in the streamlined text. “Any discussions on polymers goes beyond the mandate of the INC,” charged one delegation, noting that they had made strong calls to delete that part of the text, and were concerned that it was still reflected in the Co-Facilitators’ streamlined text. In response, another delegate stated that “we must be able to discuss polymers in order to consider the full lifecycle of plastic.”
As delegates worked through the text, it was sometimes difficult to see the shape the future instrument will eventually take. “There are so many no-text options, the final document may just be one page,” joked one delegate. Others were encouraged by the proposals for intersessional work, although how to fit all the potential issues to consider into the six months before INC-5 will be challenging.
The heavy sighs among participants were palpable in the hallways and contact group rooms as many realized the sheer amount of work they will need to get through before the end of 2024. What will the output of INC-4 be? How useful will it be for their deliberations at INC-5? Will a foundation of convergence on key concerns among delegations be possible to advance an agenda leading to a robust ILBI on plastic pollution? While the somber mood spoke volumes, the path towards candid textual negotiations offered a glimmer of hope.
As the energy waned in the halls of the Shaw Center in Ottawa, delegates slogged through the Revised Zero Draft to make headway on narrowing down the options, thereby streamlining the text.
Spending a considerable amount of time during the day addressing issues of finance, the testy discussion about breaking the traditional approach to financing, that developed countries should pay, has reared its head over the past few days. If all countries are responsible for plastic pollution in the environment, all countries pay to clean it up, correct? And what about historical responsibility? Should we compel the plastics industry to pay for plastic waste generated further down the plastics value chain? Delegations grappled with these questions, as one delegate reminded others that to effectively implement the new treaty, every cent, from every source, will count.
In the corridors, and behind closed doors, many participants were involved in fevered conversations about the status of the Draft and the nature and magnitude of intersessional work ahead. “They’ve spent so much time streamlining the text that we really may not get to the heart of the textual negotiations at this meeting,” lamented one worried observer. One participant said that “at this stage, we don’t know if we are taking one step forward and two steps back, or two steps forward and one step back.” On intersessional work, one delegate was overheard saying, “this cannot be a repeat of Nairobi… the earlier we hear what is planned, the sooner we can agree.” One seasoned delegate, commenting on the sheer volume of work remaining, wondered if INC-4 would benefit from “one additional day of negotiations.” A plenary scheduled for Sunday may give additional guidance.
On a Friday that felt like a Wednesday, delegates continued streamlining the Revised Draft Text. Many were excited to discuss the issue related to fishing gear in a joint Subgroup, with some being reminded that the issue of marine litter was what kickstarted the global discussions on marine plastic which grew into these negotiations towards a plastic pollution treaty. A seasoned delegate expressed optimism that “consensus was likely achievable,” hoping that an “easy win” could infuse the rest of the process with much needed energy. But what initially appeared to be a low-hanging fruit proved to be rather more complex, with developing countries wondering who would pay for the artisanal fishing industries to obtain alternative, biodegradable fishing gear.
In the morning, some were surprised to see the daily program showing three contact groups meeting in parallel. The schedule remained fluid, with some delegates arriving in the right rooms at the wrong time, and others missing out on short sessions altogether. “My delegation cannot be in three different places at the same time, didn’t we agree we wouldn’t do that?” complained one delegate.
Meanwhile, rumors were circulating about the possibility of a resumed INC-4 (INC-4.2) that could be convened prior to INC-5. In hushed conversations, some delegations shared that convening a “jamboree” would not be as effective as holding structured intersessional talks, targeted at the most contentious issues that remain on the agenda. Unfortunately, the late-night plenary did not shed more light on the status of intersessional work.
What is abundantly clear is that delegates will have their hands full for the rest of the meeting, with three meetings running in parallel to get through another reading of the text.
26 April - Plenary Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlQDSTkbwwo Debate on whether to proceed with 3 sub-groups running in parallel to speed work in the limited time at INC4. Australia spoke in favour of this. Many small countries have small delegations and would be unable to attend 3 groups in parallel. Chair decides to proceed with two meetings in parallel.with a third stream when exceptional circumstances dictate.
26 April 2024 - Canada's First Nation declares emergency due to excessive chemicals emission (Yahoo News)
26 April 2024, Greenpeace ramps up pressure on UN delegates to cut plastic production, by delivering a “Global Plastics Factory” outside the Shaw Centre (Greenpeace)
26 April 2024, Plastics Offsetting project by Danone in Bali called into question
A plastic offsetting project backed by the food and drink giant Danone has been suspended, following allegations that a recycling facility was built illegally close to a Balinese community and without proper consultation, an Unearthed investigation has found. Danone’s project was set up as an attempt by the French multinational to offset its enormous plastic footprint in Indonesia, and part of its promise to recover more plastic than it uses in the country by 2025. (Greenpeace Unearthed)
This is the 14th Emissions Gap Report. It is published ahead of the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28). Definitely a broken record with the United Nations and scientists continually warning of the emissions gap between national policies, pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions- NDCs) and what the science says the targets we need to achieve in reducing emissions.
The report's main highlights are:
Predicted 2030 emissions must fall by 28-42 per cent for pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C
Relentless mitigation and low-carbon transformations essential to narrow emissions gap
COP28 and Global Stocktake provide an oportunity to build greater ambition for next round of climate pledges
UN Secretary General called the emissions gap "more like an emissions canyon. A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records. All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity."
Until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever according to the WMO, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. In a record first, 2 days during November exceeded 2.0C of warming based on Global average temperatures reported by .Copernicus ECMWF.
The report finds that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022.
Inger Andersen speech at the opening plenary of the 3rd conference meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to Negotiate a Global Plastics Treaty sets out the broad arguments and need for the Global Plastics Treaty. Inger Andersen is Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) released the Global Production Gap Report on 8 November 2023. Governments in aggregate are planning to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. This includes Australia.
The assessment for Australia highlighted that Ministers had rejected calls to ban new fossil fuel projects, that some 69 coal projects and 49 new oil and gas projects are in the pipeline which represent nearly 5 GtCO2eq of potential emissions. Fossil fuel production is a major source of Australia’s domestic emissions, accounting for 19% of the total in 2021.
Ozone recovery is back on track says the latest UNEP assessment report on ozone depletion and recovery.
Rogue emissions from China of ozone-depleting chemicals had threatened to delay recovery by a decade. But the emissions were stopped, says the New York Times.
“That ozone recovery is on track according to the latest quadrennial report is fantastic news. The impact the Montreal Protocol has had on climate change mitigation cannot be overstressed. Over the last 35 years, the Protocol has become a true champion for the environment,” said Meg Seki, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Ozone Secretariat. “The assessments and reviews undertaken by the Scientific Assessment Panel remain a vital component of the work of the Protocol that helps inform policy and decision makers.”
The final resolution at the United Nations Environment Assembly 21 February – 4 March 2022 was to develop a Global Plastics Treaty and to set up an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an internationally legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment.
That Negotiating Committee has now convened 28 November - 2 December 2022 at Punta del Este, Uruguay. Negotiations on the Treaty is expected to take until 2024. Australia is a member of the High Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution and is attending and have made a submission regarding processes and a statement to the Opening Plenary
UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020
The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century.
Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C.
Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target.
On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge:
"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C."
A new report on permafrost slowly thawing in the Arctic creating methane and carbon dioxide emissions highlights an approaching dangerous climate tipping point. There is a huge amount of organic matter frozen in permafrost, estimated to contain 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. And it is starting to melt. With no way to stop it except indirectly through us reducing the rate of global warming by reducing our own emissions.
"The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost," said lead author Kevin Schaefer, from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.
"Anthropogenic emissions' targets in the climate change treaty need to account for these emissions or we risk overshooting the 2°C maximum warming target," he added.
Watch this youtube interview with Lead author Professor Kevin Schaefer, Research Scientist at the University of Colorado being interviewed at the climate talks in Doha:
The report - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (PDF) - was published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and launched at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Doha on November 27. (See media release)
