Australia at COP29 Climate Diary

The UN climate conference, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP28) is ocurring in Baku in the Azerbaijan from Monday November 11 to Friday November 22, 2024 (but may also go into overtime). 

This is my digital diary of Australia at COP29 in Baku. I will be following whats going on at in Baku online. Follow with me. I'll be updating this blog post regularly up to the end of November 2024. 

President-Designate for COP 29 is Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan's Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources. Azerbaijan is a repressive state with a poor human rights record according to Human Rights Watch in leadup to a meeting in Bonn in June.

Australia will likely be represented at the ministerial level by Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. See Tracking Australian Ministers and Australian pledges at COP29. Australia is lobbying to hold COP31 in 2026, and an announcement of host is likely in Baku. The city of Belem in Brazil is holding COP30 in 2025.

I'll be including detail from IISD Earth Negotiating Bulletin for each day. I might pluck details from the full report, especially relevant to Australia, and will post the 'In the Corridors" section which provides a concise  'vibe' summary on the negotiations. I might include details from other sources as needed.

Links: UNFCCC COP29 website for documents. Azerbaijan COP29 website. Civil Society COP28 Climate Justice Hub, DCCEEW international climate action page. Australia at COP29. Carbon Brief Negotiating Text Tracker | Fossil of the Day awards leader Board

20 September 2024 - The Coalition’s Nuclear Plan and proposal to cap large-scale renewable energy would lead to “massive” electricity supply shortages risking blackouts, according to analysis by the federal government Energy Department. Electricity supply could be at least 18% less than what will be needed in 2035 under a scenario that reflects the few details of the Coalition plan. (Guardian) Further an IEEFA report says Coalition’s nuclear plan will add $665 a year to average power bill. The cost of electricity generated from nuclear plants would likely be 1.5 to 3.8 times the current cost of electricity generation in eastern Australia. (Guardian)

19 September 2024 - Western Australia’s decision to lift onshore gas export ban will drive up emissions, say conservationists (Guardian) 

18 September 2024 - a zombie gas project rears its head off the NSW Coast. Albanese government issues ‘preliminary refusal’ of Pep11 gas project previously vetoed by Scott Morrison (Guardian)

18 September 2024 - The world is spending at least $2.6tn (£2tn) a year on subsidies that drive global heating and destroy nature, according to new analysis by Earth Track. (Guardian) Report: Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: An Update (Earth Track) 

Another report by Action Aid - How the Finance Flows: The banks fuelling the climate crisis - says that more than $650bn (£494bn) a year in public subsidies goes to fossil fuel companies, intensive agriculture and other harmful industries in the developing world. Many of the subsidies were owing to “corporate capture” of the government and public institutions, while climate finance to enable transition is lacking. (Guardian | Action Aid Report)

18 September 2024 - Fossil fuel companies sponsor $5.6bn in global ‘sportswashing’ deals, and this is likely an underestimate. (Guardian) Top sports sponsors include Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company ($1.3 billion); British oil major Shell ($469 million); petrochemicals giant Ineos ($776 million); and French oil company TotalEnergies ($327 million), the study by the New Weather Institute found.(Desmog) This includes some $80 million by Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting into Olympic sports since 2012. (SMH) Action: Climate Council developed in 2023 a fossil fuel free sponsorship code, Calling Time: How to Remove Fossil Fuel Sponsorships from Sports, Arts and Events. (Climate Council)

17 September 2024 - The big Labor fail in updating Australia's Nature laws to include climate impacts and beefed compliance. Adam Morton on The environment was meant to be ‘back on the priority list’ under Labor. Instead we’ve seen a familiar story (Guardian) "Every year since the act came into force in 2000, Austalia’s threatened species populations have actually fallen 2-3%. When development, agriculture and infrastructure projects do get assessed under these laws, about 99% are approved. Experts have found the laws permit ongoing destruction of critical habitat for threatened species.... our government is showing worrying signs of letting industry and developers control their environmental agenda." (The Conversation) Biodiversity Council has urged Labor Government to establish a robust EPA and EIA (Biodiversity Council).

14 September 2024 - Environment Minister refers NT Beetaloo Basin fracking for scientific assessment of impact on water resources, but fails to use her powers under the Water Trigger to 'call-in' the projects to halt fracking while the assessment is underway. (Guardian). Request for advice is far too little too late says Lock the Gate.

14 September 2024 -  The Hague becomes world’s first city to pass law banning fossil fuel-related ads. Legislation makes it illegal to advertise fossil fuel products and services with a high carbon footprint. (Guardian) Australia should do the same and implement a Fossil Ad Ban.

13 September 2024 - Labor’s new ‘renewable hydrogen’ targets aim for Australia to produce 15m tonnes by 2050, and a stretch goal of 30m tonnes. The plan aims for annual exports of 200,000 tonnes of exports by 2030, with a “stretch” goal of 1.2mt/year. (Guardian | Hydrogen Energy Plan 2024 PDF | Chris Bowen Speech to the APAC Hydrogen Summit, Brisbane) The strategy does not Mention The Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain project converting brown coal to hydrogen, jointly funded by Commonwealth and State Governments along with Japanese energy companies. (See Environment Victoria)  For background see also Hope and hydrogen – Australia’s hydrogen export charade. Australia needs to produce 500,000 tonnes just to replace current fossil fuel hydrogen use, before considering new use in road, rail, ship and aviation transport and for export.  (Australia Institute)

13 September 2024 - Federal Minister approves Melbourne Airport 3rd runway costing $3 billion to be constructed by 2031, ignoring the greenhouse gas emissions this will induce, estimated at a 55% increase in emissions by Flight Free Australia (Minister statement | Flight Free Australia)

12 September 2024 - Rich nations stay silent on future climate finance says Climate Action Network.  Parties to the United Nations climate negotiations ended their final technical meeting ahead of November’s COP29 climate summit in Baku with little progress on an agreed new climate finance goal, known as the NCQG. (CANi)

12 September 2024 - Legal action against fossil fuel companies has tripled since 2015.  86 climate lawsuits have been filed against the world’s largest oil, gas, and coal producing corporations – including BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies – with two in five cases involving claims for compensation for climate change damages linked to fossil fuels. (Oil Change International)

11 September 2024 - Climate Council report on how Australia hosting a UN Climate Conference, COP31 in 2026, would bring impetus to decarbonistion and economic benefits. Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide are in the running as city hosts. The decision likely to be made this November at COP29. (Climate Council)

10 September 2024 - Fossil Fuel Subsidies: The Fuel Tax Credits Scheme, also called the Diesel Fuel Rebate, is a subsidy for fossil fuel use valued at $10.2 billion in 2024-25. It works by refunding fuel tax paid by certain fuel users. The Scheme largely benefits coal and iron ore miners. The subsidy is estimated to be worth $4.8 billion to the mining industry, and $1.3 billion to farmers in 2024-25, with $1.4 billion going to the coal industry alone, The Report recommends scrapping fuel tax rebates for mining, not farmers (Australia Institute).

9 September 2024 - Almost 68% of Australia’s tourism sites at major risk if climate crisis continues, report says.  At least half of 178 tourism assets around the country – from national parks to city attractions and airports – are facing major climate risks. And as the heat rises, so do the disruptions. Many of the country’s 620,000 tourism jobs will be under threat (Guardian | Zurich media release and report link)

8 September 2024 - Report of Second Meeting of U.S.-China Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s, 4-6 Sep (US State Dept)

1. Meeting reaffirmed their intention to jointly host, with the COP 29 Presidency of Azerbaijan, a Methane and Other Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Summit at COP 29; 
2. advance efforts to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, and continue collaborative efforts to enforce their respective laws on banning illegal imports, and promote global forest conservation and sustainable management; 
3. strengthen dialogue, collaborative efforts, and working with other Parties to support the Azerbaijan Presidency for a successful outcome of COP 29, including on, inter alia, the new collective quantified goal (WRI Explainer: new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG)) and Article 6 (Carbon Markets) under the Paris Agreement (Pollination Explainer: Article 6 developments for COP29)

8 September 2024 - South Australia is aiming for 100% renewable energy by 2027. It’s already internationally ‘remarkable’ for a grid serving 2 million people. Bipartisanship was a key enabler, along with substantial uptake of rooftop solar, providing a lesson for other states and Federal sphere of Australian Politics (Guardian)

7 September 2024 - Global heat: Summer 2024 sweltered to Earth’s hottest on record, making it even more likely that this year will end up as the warmest humanity has measured, says Copernicus (Copernicus | Guardian) Heatwave across US west breaks records for highest temperatures. Hottest summer on record continues, with millions from Phoenix to Los Angeles to Seattle under heat alerts (Guardian) While in the UK Soggy summers and warmer winters are hitting sales as climate crisis blurs seasons (Guardian) Australia: Temperatures surge in south-eastern Australia as windy weather blasts NSW and Victoria (Guardian)

6 September 2024 - Dusky Sea Snake on threatened species list undermines Woodside Energy's Browse gas project around Scott Reef (Guardian) But it seems the Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has already ruled out reassessment of the $29bn gas project based on the threat to the sea snake. (Australian Business Review) It is shocking enough that the climate impacts of a new gas field aren't enough to stop it, reason why we need a Climate Trigger in National Environment Laws.

5 September 2024 - University funding from fossil fuels slowing switch to green energy (Guardian) Study: Fossil fuel industry influence in higher education: A review and a research agenda. One key site of ongoing climate obstructionism identified by researchers, journalists, and advocates is higher education.  (Wires)

5 September 2024 - new report on Japanese fossil fuel finance around the world - $93 billion over 10 years. Japan is purchasing Australian LNG and onselling to Asia. Billions Off Course: Japan's Oil and Gas Financing Fueling the Climate Crisis (For Our Climate)

5 September 2024. New report on the gas sector. With proposals to import gas this new report shows the farce and political failure in managing and regulating gas industry. Around 80% of Australia’s gas is exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Over half (56%) of gas exported from Australia attracts zero royalty payments, effectively giving a public resource to multinational corporations for free. Across the country, gas and oil extraction employs just 21,200 workers — less than half of one percent (0.15%) of the 14 million people employed in Australia. (Australia Institute)

5 September 2024 - The Australian government may delay the announcement of a 2035 climate target until after the February deadline and beyond the next election, in part due to uncertainty about the ramifications of the US presidential election. Climate Change Authority suggests Australia could meet an “ambitious” target of cutting emissions by at least 65% and up to 75% below 2005 levels by 2035 (See CCA Targets paper, April 2024), but is yet to make its final recommendation. (Guardian)

4 September 2024 - Climate Council releases The Race to the Top report, which compares states and territories’ progress on important shifts like rooftop solar, home batteries, electric vehicle registrations and more, has found the most populous states are enhancing their plans to cut climate pollution, while South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT are already powered by close to 100% clean electricity.  (Climate Council) 

4 September 2024 - 600 new zero emission battery electric buses by 2035 for Victoria (Premier media release | The Driven) Also of note: Volvo releases 600km range heavy duty battery electric truck (The Driven)

4 September 2024 - Companies that received federal environmental approvals made $54.8 million in political donations in the 24 years to 2022, analysis shows. (Lock The Gate)

• Woodside and Santos donated nearly $3 million each to Labor and the Coalition during the 24 year period. 
• Santos projects received eight federal environmental approvals and Woodside projects received nine federal environmental approvals during this time.
• Coal companies including Adani, Whitehaven, and Glencore collectively donated $3.1 million dollars over the 24 year period and received 24 project approvals under the EPBC Act.
• Lobby groups representing the interests of mining companies such as the Minerals Council of Australia and NSW Minerals Council collectively donated more than $1 million to the two major parties.

3 September 2024 - New Report from IPEN: Waste Incineration Drives the Triple Planetary Crisis. Report argues Incineration is an outdated, unsustainable method for waste disposal, as burning waste, especially plastics, produces dangerous air emissions and high amounts of toxic ash. IPEN finds that burning waste, especially plastics, produces unsustainable and unmanageable hazardous air emissions and large amounts of highly toxic solid residues (ash), concluding that alternatives to incineration should be implemented globally. Given the challenges faced by the triple planetary crisis of biodiversity loss, climate change, and toxic pollution, the report finds that waste incineration contributes to all three of these interlinked problems. (IPEN) Note: Victorian state government is planning 5 Waste to Energy incinerators around Melbourne. 

3 September 2024 - 20 more species added to Australia’s threatened wildlife and flora list, including a species of Waratah. One ecological community – the King Island scrub complex, was also added.The fresh listings bring the total number of endangered plants, animals and ecosystems to 2,245. This listing comes days after the Albanese Government suggested watering down new EPA legislation. (Guardian)

2 September 2024 - offshore wind zone declared off the coast of Bunbury, Western Australia. After engagement and consultation the Bunbury offshore wind zone has been amended to be at least 30km from shore at its closest point, excludes more than 60% of the recreational fishing areas requested for exclusion including Naturaliste Reef and provides further separation from breeding areas and migratory paths for Southern Right Whales. The final area covers 4,000km2 – reducing the zone by about half. It will create close to 7,000 jobs during construction and around 3,500 ongoing jobs for engineers, electrical technicians, cable installers, boilermakers, crane operators, riggers, seafarers, dockworkers and administrators. (DCCEEW - Chris Bowen media release)

2 September - Albanese Government looking to water down new EPA powers in national environment laws. Still no action to insert Climate Trigger in these laws. (Guardian)

2 September 2024 - Australia sweats through hottest August on record with temperatures 3C above average (Guardian) See also BOM: Australia in August 2024

1 September 2024 - Australian emissions rise by 0.6% in March 2024 Quarter as emissions reduction flatlines for past 3 years (Climate Action Merribek) See also Adam Moreton raising  the same issues relating to emissions reduction on 4 Sep: Let’s be honest: Australia’s claim to have cut climate pollution isn’t as good as it seems (Guardian)

Video: The Tipping Points of Climate Change and Where We Stand in 2024 | Johan Rockström (TED talk)

I came across this TED talk by accident, produced mid August 2024.

"We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure."

This 20 minute video really is worth watching to inform you to step up climate action.

Australia experiences record breaking winter heatwave; Rapid snow season decline; Global Snapshot of news reveals climate crisis extent

Australia experiencing a late winter season  heatwave breaking temperature recotds.

Australia is in the grip of a late winter season heatwave with temperature records falling across most states. Southern States are experiencing storm fronts with strong winds some times in excess of 100km/hr.

Australia: late Winter #heatwave temperature records broken for Queensland, New South Wales, Northern Territory and South Australia. In Qld, Birdsville’s running maximum temperature at 3:30pm AEST on Friday was 39.6°C. This is roughly 15°C above average for this time of year and Qld’s highest winter temperature on record. (Weatherzone)

Sydney Airport has broken its winter record of 31.1°C this Friday, reaching 31.6°C at 2:48pm. In August 2024 to date, Sydney's running average maximum has been 21°C, some 3.1 above the long-term average. (Weatherzone)

In Queensland, Rental advocates warn heat-related deaths will increase if Queensland regulations aren't tightened. The ABC News report summarises that:

• Parts of Queensland are predicted to see a record-breaking 36-degree end to winter.
• Advocates want efficiency regulations to protect renters and public housing tenants.
• The state government says their reforms have made renting fairer and lifted housing standards.
• See associated VIDEO: Growing risk of heat-related deaths as Queensland temperatures soar

See climatologist Andrew King explain at the Conversation, published 26 August 2024: 40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

Surging seas driven by the climate crisis already impacting Island nations says UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

The Pacific Islands Forum is underway in Tonga. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a speech to the opening of the forum. 

He highlighted in his speech (see below) the need for a just transition for the phaseout of fossil fuels and called for all members of the G20 to step up and lead, by phasing out the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately. 

While Australia was not explicitly named, we are the only member state of the Forum involved in fossil fuel expansion and export.

"When governments sign new oil and gas licenses, they are signing away our future." said Guterres.

He also called for national climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions – to be submitted by next year, aligning with the 1.5-degree upper limit of global heating.

Guterres also launched two new reports from Tonga highlighting the acceleration of sea level rise and the impacts already occurring on low lying Pacific Nations.

Cruise ships are getting larger and emissions are growing says new report

There is a new report on Cruise ship emissions. Cruise ships are getting larger and more numerous. This is a problem for the environment, according to Transport NGO Transport and Environment.

They argue that the cruise ship sector:

• The world’s biggest cruise ships are now twice as big as they were in 2000
• At the current rate of growth, the biggest cruise ships in 2050 could become almost eight times bigger than the Titanic and carry nearly 11,000 passengers
• Twentyfold increase in the number of cruise ships from only 21 in 1970 to 515 today
• Cruise ship CO2 emissions were already nearly 20% higher in 2022 than in 2019 before the pandemic
• Cruise ships are currently exempt from fuel duties as well as most corporate and consumer taxes. A €50 tax on a typical cruise journey ticket would bring in €1.6 billion globally, €410 million of which would be raised in Europe.

Extreme Heat: World sets new daily temperature records as UN Secretary-General issues Call to Action on Extreme Heat

The European Copernicus Agency early this week identified that Sunday, Monday and Tuesday set new global daily average temperature records. This Thursday UN Secretary General highlighted Extreme Heat with a call to action, including an end to new fossil fuel extraction. He highlighted a new International Labor Organisation report on extreme heat safety and health for workers.

22 July 2024 was confirmed as warmest day globally in recent history. July 23 and July 21 also broke the record set in July 2023.

Yet Australia is still approving new coal and gas projects, allowing offshore #Fossilfuel exploration exacerbating the #ClimateCrisis. We need a #ClimateTrigger in National Environment laws

Sunday Monday and Tuesday this week all exceeded Global Daily Average Temperature Record set in July 2023. Welcome to the Anthropocene.

Guest Post: Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ may blow out by 40% under the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan – and that’s the best case

 

Sven Teske, University of Technology Sydney

The Coalition’s pledge to build seven nuclear reactors, if elected, would represent a huge shift in energy policy for Australia. It also poses serious questions about whether this nation can meet its international climate obligations.

If Australia is to honour the Paris Agreement to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5˚C by mid-century, it can emit about 3 billion tonnes, or gigatonnes, of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over the next 25 years. This remaining allowance is what’s known as our “carbon budget”.

My colleagues and I recently outlined the technological options for Australia to remain within its carbon budget. We did this using a tool we developed over many years, the “One Earth Climate Model”. It’s a detailed study of pathways for various countries to meet the 1.5˚C goal.

So what happens if we feed the Coalition’s nuclear strategy into the model? As I outline below, even if the reactors are built, the negative impact on Australia’s carbon emissions would be huge. Over the next decade, the renewables transition would stall and coal and gas emissions would rise – possibly leading to a 40% blowout in Australia’s carbon budget.

Antonio Guterres calls out the Godfathers of Climate Chaos on World Environment Day

 

Blistering speech by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on World Evironment Day urging leaders take the right decisions taking urgent climate action, particularly over the next eighteen months, with concerning temperature trends and increasing climate damage impacts

Antonio Guterres highlighted that

• The European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reported May 2024 as the hottest May in recorded history.   
• This marks twelve straight months of the hottest months ever. 
• The World Meteorological Organisation reports today that there is an eighty per cent chance the global annual average temperature will exceed the 1.5 degree limit in at least one of the next five years.
• In 2015, the chance of such a breach was near zero.
• There’s a fifty-fifty chance that the average temperature for the entire next five-year period will be 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial times.
• Urged financial institutions to stop bankrolling fossil fuel destruction and start investing in a global renewables revolution; To present public, credible and detailed plans to transition [funding] from fossil fuels to clean energy with clear targets for 2025 and 2030;
• Called for advertising and PR companies  to "stop acting as enablers to planetary destruction. Stop taking on new fossil fuel clients, from today, and set out plans to drop your existing ones. Fossil fuels are not only poisoning our planet – they’re toxic for your brand."
• Highlighted that  "the Godfathers of climate chaos – the fossil fuel industry – rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies.
• Called for an effective price on carbon and tax the windfall profits of fossil fuel companies.
• He proposed: "We do have a choice: Creating tipping points for climate progress – or careening to tipping points for climate disaster."

He advised that "We are playing Russian roulette with our planet. We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell. And the truth is… we have control of the wheel. The 1.5 degree limit is still just about possible."

It is amazing he still holds hope as governments continue to approve new coal and gas. Like the Victorian Government  approving the Beach Energy Fossil Gas field inder the 12 Apsostles National Marine Sancturay on 6 June..

Watch full speech, or read speech transcription below.

Shipping emissions: Route optimisation using ocean currents and eddies may save 10% fuel use globally

An Australian scientist proposes freight and container ships optimise their routes based upon satellite data and a AI algorithm based upon the mapping of ocean currents and ocean eddies. 

This could save a freight route between Sydney and Wellington in New Zealand about 17 percent fuel use, with minimal deviation and change in delivery time. It could achieve these savings by tracking the flow of a large anticlockwise eddy in the Tasman Sea.

Projecting this globally: global shipping industry could potentially cut its total fuel usage by 10 per cent with his route optimisation algorithm, Estimated savings are projected to be nearly US$50 billion and 237 million tonnes of CO2 emissions every year.

Shane Keating is an oceanographer and associate professor of applied mathematics at UNSW Sydney. He has developed an application and is offering it through his just-launched UNSW spin-off company named Ocean Intelligence. 

“It’s essentially Google Maps for the sea, which offers the most efficient route in real time based on the behaviour of ocean eddies,” Keating said in this article in the Saturday Paper.

An Open letter to Telstra Super on fossil fuel investments, particularly Santos and Woodside Energy

The following email to one of my superannuation funds, Telstra Super, was partly generated from the latest Market Forces Climate Wreckers Report. It is easy to generate a letter with specific information to your Super Fund. I added substantially more contextual information to my email. But a short personal note with reasons on the necessity for divesting for our future can also have an impact. 

Every Super member has an opportunity to change how their superannuation is invested, divesting away from fossil fuels to clean energy solutions.

To TelstraSuper,

Time to End all investments in the world’s worst fossil fuel expanders

I’m contacting you to demand that you end the fossil fuel expansion plans of companies you invest my retirement savings in, and publicly divest from them if this fails.

I have particular concerns that your engagement with Woodside and Santos to adopt a change in business, has failed. These companies are almost entirely dedicated to Fossil fuel production and expansion. Your continued investment of member superannuation money  in these companies under the rubric that you can engage and get them to adopt net zero emissions by 2050 is fatally flawed and is not in keeping with your fiduciary duty to act for members long term behalf.