Aviation growth disrupted, time for a moratorium on airport expansion, reassesment of aviation climate impact

IATA forward projections for aviation due to the pandemic

There should be an immediate moratorium on the Melbourne Airport 3rd runway design and construction due to aviation forward growth projections being now out of date due to the impact of the Covid19 pandemic.

Melbourne Airport today (14 May) put out a notice they are still committed to building the 3rd runway.

"However, our public exhibition period and community engagement activities for the Draft Major Development Plan will be postponed as we adhere to current strict social distancing measures."

Melbourne airport failed to include any business risk management plan in their latest Airport Masterplan on high impact low occurrence situations such as black swan events (such as the pandemic) or forseeable but unlikely impacts such as increased climate regulatory action by government, or building a high speed east coast rail network for competition. This was poor risk management. (see Climate Action Moreland 2018 submission to the Melbourne Airport Draft Masterplan)

The International Airline Industry in a press release on 13 May forecasts that due to the pandemic domestic travel may not recover till 2023 and international long haul aviation 2025.

The pandemic is already changing recreational travel behaviours in the short and medium term, and business travel will also be less in future as video-conferencing reduces need to travel while also reducing travel expense to business.

Add to this growing concern and action over climate impact of aviation when we need to be reducing emissions. The need for the 3rd runway based on prepandemic travel projections should be reassessed.

The airline industry also want to remove international quarantine measures as rapidly as possible, replacing with temperature and other health checks in a layered approach.

As up to 50 percent of Covid19 infection transmission is asymptomatic or pre symptomatic, these checks will almost certainly fail to be enough in preventing continued spread of the Corona Virus.

Mass Aviation enabled the rapid global spread of this virus in the first place. Opening up international aviation without quarantine or a vaccine is highly problematic.

Brian Pearce Chief Economist for IATA in his 5 year projections provided this chart. I suspect even this projection by IATA is very rosy forecasting showing a V rebound when consumer confidence will likely take much longer and with airlines subject to much more regulatory action over emissions as the climate emergency comes to the fore again as we learn to live in post pandemic times.


Sources:
IATA press release, 13 May 2020, Don’t Make A Slow Recovery More Difficult with Quarantine Measures
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-13-03/

Nordic Countries pursuing short haul electric aviation at COP25

It’s a flying Shame – Nordic efforts towards Sustainable Aviation, December 13.

I attended this presentation at #COP25 in Madrid which entailed a video hookup with a panel of people in Stockholm.

Attitudes are changing to flying, given the level of emissions it causes. This is especially the case from people who use an ethical and value-based model to drive their behaviour.

Biofuels are being investigated, but there are biomass limits to use of these fuels, and they do not address climate impacts at high altitudes. Electric short haul flight is a realistic possibility in the next 10 years, and the Nordic countries are actively pursing this.

Climate change and the Victorian bushfire crisis

The science and warnings for this Bushfire crisis were well known and ignored. This was criminal negligence by our political leaders of the highest order.

See my twitter thread on #bushfires to Darren Chester MP interview on BBC on 30/12 #climateemergency

Nationals @DarrenChesterMP (Gippsland) on BBC on #bushfire emergency "Whether they are worse in years to come is a debateable point I suppose. One of the challenges we have is trying to reduce fuel loads in the months leading up to the summer period"

I call bullshit #Auspol 1/10

Angus Taylor addresses international community at COP25 without mentioning bushfire climate crisis

On Tuesday 10 December Australian Energy Minister delivered Australia's national statement to the United Nations climate conference COP25 in Madrid. While bushfires raged in the state of New Soutrh Wales and across Australia, and even in Angus's own southern Tablands electorate of Hume, there was not a mention of the bushfirers in his address to the international community.

Lots of hype about meeting and beating climate targets, but the reality is the Morrison Government advocated strongly for using Kyoto Prorocol carryover credits to meet Australia's already too low Paris Agreement climate targets.

The advicacy for this met pushback. But it was one of the destabilising factors in the conference that provided distraction and prevented the conference reaching more ambiituos outcomes.

Madrid Climate Conference COP25 enters overtime as many countries raise lack of ambition amid blockers

The United Nations Climate Conference meeting in Madrid under a Chilean Presidency was due to close on Friday 13 December, 2019, but negotiators have been working overnight trying to overcome multiple issues and blockages on Article 6 on carbon markets, on Loss and Damages, on Finance, on calling for ambition in NDCs that need to be submitted in 2020, in the acceptance of the IPCC Land and Oceans reports.

The Chilean Presidency attempted to reach a balanced approach with updated decision texts on Saturday morning, but was criticised by the blocking countries like Australia, USA and Brazil, while a great many countries and negotiating blocs called for much greater ambition in the textx, highlighting that people are marching in the streets, demanding action, watching the negotiators in this time of climate crisis and climate emergency.

Blunt statement from Mohammed Adow from Powershift Africa: "I would say here in Madrid the governments fucked up..."

This is a live blog....

Brazil wins Colossal Fossil Award at COP25 for Amazon deforestation, land grabbing

The UN climate conference is scheduled to finish on Friday December 13, but almost certainly it will not, held to ransom in particular by a few countries doing much of the blocking. Those countries include Australia, USA and Brazil.

The Final day of COP is the day when Climate Action Network award the Colossal Fossil award for being the worst of the worst./ While Australia was leading the tally scoreboard for daily Fossilof the Day Awards, by acclimation the Climate Action Network decided to use it's perogative and and appoint another country, although one that has been given Fossil awards at COP25. Step forward Brazil. A country that has been doing an extrarordinary amount of blocking in the negotiations in the climate conference, but also a country reversing gains that have been made in previous years with allowing more land grabbing, deforrestation f the Amazon disrupting indigenous communities, and allowing the murder of environmental defenders.

The one light of the day, highlighted by a Ray of the Year award, is the continuing resistance by indigenous people from the Amazon to Australia against fossil fuel extractivism and land clearing, upholding traditional culture and knowledge and environmental integity. Similarly, the youth uprising with Fridays for Future and climate strike provides a measure of hope in action.

Australia received 5th and 6th Fossil awards at COP25 showing lack of climate policy

Australia received two Fossil awards on Thusday night, 12 December, the second last scheduled day of the UN climate conference in Madrid.

The first award was a stand alone for pushing use of Kyoto Protocol credits as carryover to the Paris Agreement which helped undermine negotiations. The second was as part of the Developed nations for lack of ambition in resolving Loss and Damage for vulnerable countries at COP25. This was supposed to be the Loss and Damage COP with the Warsaw Implementation Mechanism on Loss and Damage Review.

That puts Australia with 6 Fossil Awards for COP25 from Nine Fossil Award Ceremonies. Not a good record to have and illustrates the extent of climate policy in-action both at home and internationally.

Fossil Awards to Japan, Brazil and a Ray of the Year to the IPCC

Wednesday Fossil of the Day ceremony was a tough one to organise. Half the Fossil of the Day Team had been locked out of the conference centre by the heavy handed tactics of UN Security. First prize went to Japan for continuing to shun ambition and lock in coal addiction. @nd Fossil award to Brazil for land grabbing and deforestation of the Amazon. We also had a ray of light - a Ray of the Year presented to Youba Sokona, the IPCC Vice-Chair, who presnted two copies of one of the IPCC reports as a gift in return.

A civil society protest action at 2.45pm had occurred outside the Baker Plenary hall, but resulted in between 200-300 people being pushed and shoved out a side door outside the hall and locked out. Read more: UNFCCC closes the door literally on civil society demanding climate justice at COP25.

UNFCCC closes the door literally on civil society demanding climate justice at COP25

Multiple civil society organisations including indigenous and environmental groups co-ordinated a protest outside the main Plenary - Baker Room this afternoon, to protest the lack of action during this COP on multiple fronts, and the continuing attack on the space the civil society. The intention was to protest peacefully for 30 minutes outside Plenary Baker.

The protest was noisy, with chanting and singing. A few banners and small paper and cardboard signs. Security cordoned off the front of the plenary. It was a bit of a crush. and some people sat down. After5 about 20 miniues security pushed people to a rollerdoor to the outside, and then cordoned the door for several minutes before closing it. Locking all those people outside, many without their coats or bags, in the Madrid winter weather.

4th Fossil Award to Australia at COP25 over 0/100 on climate policy, Kyoto carryover credits, climate inaction

Sydney student climate striker Daisy accepts Fossil award for Australia

Australia received it's 4th Fossil of the Day award of the UN climate Conference COP25 on Tuesday 10 December, 2019. Seventeen year old student climate striker accepted the award with great sadness and frustration and calling for action (Transcript below)