Australia at COP29 Climate Diary

The UN climate conference, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP28) is ocurring in Baku in the Azerbaijan from Monday November 11 to Friday November 22, 2024 (but may also go into overtime). 

This is my digital diary of Australia at COP29 in Baku. I will be following whats going on at in Baku online. Follow with me. I'll be updating this blog post regularly up to the end of November 2024. 

President-Designate for COP 29 is Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan's Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources. Azerbaijan is a repressive state with a poor human rights record according to Human Rights Watch in leadup to a meeting in Bonn in June.

Australia will likely be represented at the ministerial level by Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. See Tracking Australian Ministers and Australian pledges at COP29. Australia is lobbying to hold COP31 in 2026, and an announcement of host is likely in Baku. The city of Belem in Brazil is holding COP30 in 2025.

I'll be including detail from IISD Earth Negotiating Bulletin for each day. I might pluck details from the full report, especially relevant to Australia, and will post the 'In the Corridors" section which provides a concise  'vibe' summary on the negotiations. I might include details from other sources as needed.

Links: UNFCCC COP29 website for documents. Azerbaijan COP29 website. Civil Society COP28 Climate Justice Hub, DCCEEW international climate action page. Australia at COP29. Carbon Brief Negotiating Text Tracker | Fossil of the Day awards leader Board

8 October 2024 - Latest science assessment says World is in deep peril with the Climate Crisis. "We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis." William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Jillian W Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning, Cássio Cardoso Pereira, Beverly E Law, Thomas W Crowther, The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth, BioScience, 2024;, biae087, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087 Summary at (The Conversation)

8 October 2024 - Environment Minister announces ‘Huge environmental win’: Australia to protect 52% of its oceans, more than any other country, Plibersek says. Sub-Antarctic marine park expansion welcomed but scientists say some areas important to penguins and seals missed out on sanctuary-level protection (Guardian), and under the Biodiversity convention definition only about 25% is now adequately protected according to Dr Ian Cresswell.(Guardian)  Meanwhile 400km from the Nature Positive Summit The NSW Forestry Corporation has started logging in Bulga state forest, inland from Port Macquarie,in habitat of threatened species including endangered koalas and the endangered greater glider. (Guardian) 

7 October 2024 - Australian Government spends around 50 times more on subsidising activities that harm the environment than it spends on helping biodiversity each year argues the Biodiversity Council. The assessment found that around 4% of the federal budget goes to subsidising activities that are likely to have a medium to high adverse impact on biodiversity; a total of $26.3 billion per year. (Biodiversity Council)

7 October 224 - Japan backs fossil fuels in Southeast Asian “zero emission” initiative. Japan’s Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) supported 56 projects using fossil fuel technologies in Southeast Asia — including LNG and carbon capture (Climate Change News) Zero emissions or fossil fuels? Tracking Japan’s AZEC projects (Zero Carbon Analytics)

7 October 2024 - Australian Security Leaders Climate Group calls for overhaul of federal government's climate threat preparedness strategy (ABC News)

6 October 2024 - Australia claims progress in climate action, while fossil fuel expansion for export continues under Labor claims Energy analyst Ketan Joshi - The blurred self image of progressive climate villains. It includes some analysis of the effectiveness of the Safeguard Mechanism: "there hasn’t been any change in total emissions since the time it became active in July 2023" (KetanJoshi)

4 October 2024 - Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds. Research challenges idea that sending liquefied natural gas around the world is cleaner alternative to burning coal (Guardian) "Overall, the greenhouse gas footprint for LNG as a fuel source is 33% greater than that for coal when analyzed using GWP20 (160 g CO2-equivalent/MJ vs. 120 g CO2-equivalent/MJ). Even considered on the time frame of 100 years after emission (GWP100), which severely understates the climatic damage of methane, the LNG footprint equals or exceeds that of coal." (Energy, Science and Engineering Journal) Debunked: All those speeches rolled out over the last decade, especially by Labor politicians, justifying gas expansion as a lower emissions 'transition fuel'.

4 October 2024 - Ex-carbon offsetting boss charged in New York with multimillion-dollar fraud (Guardian) Wonder if the same could happen in Australia? Given integrity issues and supervision of Carbon Offsets? See The Age 16 Sep 2024, ‘Extreme risk’: Carbon watchdog mismanaged conflicts, ‘intimidated’ scientists 

3 October 2024 - Australia sees a rise in "greenhushing," where carbon-neutral firms underreport their sustainability efforts. This silence stems from fears of scrutiny and low consumer interest. (Groundreport.In)

3 October 2024 - Gas power in future grid will be “tiny” and its cost exorbitant, IEEFA report finds (RenewEconomy). IEEFA claims while the capacity of gas generating capacity increases, its use in the generation mix actually falls significantly. Future role of gas in the NEM is likely overstated (IEEFA)

2 October 2024 - Two cancer doctors highlight Beetaloo gas fracking and Middlearm petrochemical hub could generate a 'cancer alley' in the Northern Territory in a letter to the Medical Journal of Australia. "Australia risks creating its own “sacrifice zone”, harming the health of its people and contributing irrevocably to the climate crisis." (MJA)

2 October 2024 - WA Labor government accused of shelving climate laws as emissions continue to rise (Guardian) "WA is the only Australian state without a 2030 emissions reduction target. National data says climate pollution in the five eastern states fell by at least 27% between 2005 and 2022 while rising 8% in WA, largely due to the state’s expanding liquified natural gas (LNG) export industry"

1 October 2024 - Tuvalu climate minister declares Australia’s coalmine decision ‘immoral’, akin to drowning Pacific neighbours (Guardian) “I have made my view on new coal projects very clear at last month’s Pacific Islands Forum: fossil fuels are killing us, all of us. It is therefore immoral and unacceptable to any country to open new fossil fuel projects, as Australia has recently done with the three coalmine expansion projects it has just approved,” Talia told Guardian Australia.

1 October 2024 - Azerbaijan is using Cop29 to ‘peacewash’ its global image (The Conversation) See also Climate Action Tracker 25 September assessment rating Azerbaijan as Critically Insufficient. "Azerbaijan appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward on climate action. Its renewable energy targets remain weak. Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on fossil fuel production and the government plans to increase fossil gas extraction by more than 30% over the coming decade. Emissions from exported fossil fuels are twice as high as domestic emissions. (Climate Action Tracker)

1 October 2024 - Highest Annual Growth of Renewables Jobs in 2023, Reaching 16.2 Million (IRENA) The levelised cost of electricity produced from most forms of renewable power continued to fall year-on-year in 2023, with solar PV leading the cost reductions, followed by offshore wind according to a new report on renewable generation costs (IRENA)

30 September 2024 - Nature Positive market? Economics editor Ross Gittins nails the problem of nature market offsets and credits and the solution: "how else can we pursue nature positive? Well, here’s a radical thought: governments could stop logging native forests, stop further land clearing, stop subsidising fossil fuels, stop permitting new mines and gas fields, and start spending a lot of money restoring land and habitat." (The Age)

Statements by Foreign Minister Senator Wong on Climate at UN General Assembly September 2024

Australian Foreign Minister Senator Penny Wong is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.  She represented Australia on the Palestine/Gaza/Israel debates, but also on climate action in various forums including Australia's National Statement to the General Assembly.

Climate action was part of her speech of Australia's National Statrement to the General Assembly, including advocacy to hold COP31 in 2026, while back in Australia Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved three thermal coal projects on 24 September 2024 in a move criticised as ‘the opposite of climate action’ (Guardian) Merri-bek outrage over coal mines decision- coal approval last straw. (CAMerribek) Rising Tide blocks Newcastle coal train (ABC News)

Video: The Tipping Points of Climate Change and Where We Stand in 2024 | Johan Rockström (TED talk)

I came across this TED talk by accident, produced mid August 2024.

"We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure."

This 20 minute video really is worth watching to inform you to step up climate action.

Australia experiences record breaking winter heatwave; Rapid snow season decline; Global Snapshot of news reveals climate crisis extent

Australia experiencing a late winter season  heatwave breaking temperature recotds.

Australia is in the grip of a late winter season heatwave with temperature records falling across most states. Southern States are experiencing storm fronts with strong winds some times in excess of 100km/hr.

Australia: late Winter #heatwave temperature records broken for Queensland, New South Wales, Northern Territory and South Australia. In Qld, Birdsville’s running maximum temperature at 3:30pm AEST on Friday was 39.6°C. This is roughly 15°C above average for this time of year and Qld’s highest winter temperature on record. (Weatherzone)

Sydney Airport has broken its winter record of 31.1°C this Friday, reaching 31.6°C at 2:48pm. In August 2024 to date, Sydney's running average maximum has been 21°C, some 3.1 above the long-term average. (Weatherzone)

In Queensland, Rental advocates warn heat-related deaths will increase if Queensland regulations aren't tightened. The ABC News report summarises that:

• Parts of Queensland are predicted to see a record-breaking 36-degree end to winter.
• Advocates want efficiency regulations to protect renters and public housing tenants.
• The state government says their reforms have made renting fairer and lifted housing standards.
• See associated VIDEO: Growing risk of heat-related deaths as Queensland temperatures soar

See climatologist Andrew King explain at the Conversation, published 26 August 2024: 40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

Surging seas driven by the climate crisis already impacting Island nations says UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

The Pacific Islands Forum is underway in Tonga. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a speech to the opening of the forum. 

He highlighted in his speech (see below) the need for a just transition for the phaseout of fossil fuels and called for all members of the G20 to step up and lead, by phasing out the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately. 

While Australia was not explicitly named, we are the only member state of the Forum involved in fossil fuel expansion and export.

"When governments sign new oil and gas licenses, they are signing away our future." said Guterres.

He also called for national climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions – to be submitted by next year, aligning with the 1.5-degree upper limit of global heating.

Guterres also launched two new reports from Tonga highlighting the acceleration of sea level rise and the impacts already occurring on low lying Pacific Nations.

Cruise ships are getting larger and emissions are growing says new report

There is a new report on Cruise ship emissions. Cruise ships are getting larger and more numerous. This is a problem for the environment, according to Transport NGO Transport and Environment.

They argue that the cruise ship sector:

• The world’s biggest cruise ships are now twice as big as they were in 2000
• At the current rate of growth, the biggest cruise ships in 2050 could become almost eight times bigger than the Titanic and carry nearly 11,000 passengers
• Twentyfold increase in the number of cruise ships from only 21 in 1970 to 515 today
• Cruise ship CO2 emissions were already nearly 20% higher in 2022 than in 2019 before the pandemic
• Cruise ships are currently exempt from fuel duties as well as most corporate and consumer taxes. A €50 tax on a typical cruise journey ticket would bring in €1.6 billion globally, €410 million of which would be raised in Europe.

Extreme Heat: World sets new daily temperature records as UN Secretary-General issues Call to Action on Extreme Heat

The European Copernicus Agency early this week identified that Sunday, Monday and Tuesday set new global daily average temperature records. This Thursday UN Secretary General highlighted Extreme Heat with a call to action, including an end to new fossil fuel extraction. He highlighted a new International Labor Organisation report on extreme heat safety and health for workers.

22 July 2024 was confirmed as warmest day globally in recent history. July 23 and July 21 also broke the record set in July 2023.

Yet Australia is still approving new coal and gas projects, allowing offshore #Fossilfuel exploration exacerbating the #ClimateCrisis. We need a #ClimateTrigger in National Environment laws

Sunday Monday and Tuesday this week all exceeded Global Daily Average Temperature Record set in July 2023. Welcome to the Anthropocene.

Guest Post: Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ may blow out by 40% under the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan – and that’s the best case

 

Sven Teske, University of Technology Sydney

The Coalition’s pledge to build seven nuclear reactors, if elected, would represent a huge shift in energy policy for Australia. It also poses serious questions about whether this nation can meet its international climate obligations.

If Australia is to honour the Paris Agreement to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5˚C by mid-century, it can emit about 3 billion tonnes, or gigatonnes, of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over the next 25 years. This remaining allowance is what’s known as our “carbon budget”.

My colleagues and I recently outlined the technological options for Australia to remain within its carbon budget. We did this using a tool we developed over many years, the “One Earth Climate Model”. It’s a detailed study of pathways for various countries to meet the 1.5˚C goal.

So what happens if we feed the Coalition’s nuclear strategy into the model? As I outline below, even if the reactors are built, the negative impact on Australia’s carbon emissions would be huge. Over the next decade, the renewables transition would stall and coal and gas emissions would rise – possibly leading to a 40% blowout in Australia’s carbon budget.

Antonio Guterres calls out the Godfathers of Climate Chaos on World Environment Day

 

Blistering speech by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on World Evironment Day urging leaders take the right decisions taking urgent climate action, particularly over the next eighteen months, with concerning temperature trends and increasing climate damage impacts

Antonio Guterres highlighted that

• The European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reported May 2024 as the hottest May in recorded history.   
• This marks twelve straight months of the hottest months ever. 
• The World Meteorological Organisation reports today that there is an eighty per cent chance the global annual average temperature will exceed the 1.5 degree limit in at least one of the next five years.
• In 2015, the chance of such a breach was near zero.
• There’s a fifty-fifty chance that the average temperature for the entire next five-year period will be 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial times.
• Urged financial institutions to stop bankrolling fossil fuel destruction and start investing in a global renewables revolution; To present public, credible and detailed plans to transition [funding] from fossil fuels to clean energy with clear targets for 2025 and 2030;
• Called for advertising and PR companies  to "stop acting as enablers to planetary destruction. Stop taking on new fossil fuel clients, from today, and set out plans to drop your existing ones. Fossil fuels are not only poisoning our planet – they’re toxic for your brand."
• Highlighted that  "the Godfathers of climate chaos – the fossil fuel industry – rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies.
• Called for an effective price on carbon and tax the windfall profits of fossil fuel companies.
• He proposed: "We do have a choice: Creating tipping points for climate progress – or careening to tipping points for climate disaster."

He advised that "We are playing Russian roulette with our planet. We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell. And the truth is… we have control of the wheel. The 1.5 degree limit is still just about possible."

It is amazing he still holds hope as governments continue to approve new coal and gas. Like the Victorian Government  approving the Beach Energy Fossil Gas field inder the 12 Apsostles National Marine Sancturay on 6 June..

Watch full speech, or read speech transcription below.

Shipping emissions: Route optimisation using ocean currents and eddies may save 10% fuel use globally

An Australian scientist proposes freight and container ships optimise their routes based upon satellite data and a AI algorithm based upon the mapping of ocean currents and ocean eddies. 

This could save a freight route between Sydney and Wellington in New Zealand about 17 percent fuel use, with minimal deviation and change in delivery time. It could achieve these savings by tracking the flow of a large anticlockwise eddy in the Tasman Sea.

Projecting this globally: global shipping industry could potentially cut its total fuel usage by 10 per cent with his route optimisation algorithm, Estimated savings are projected to be nearly US$50 billion and 237 million tonnes of CO2 emissions every year.

Shane Keating is an oceanographer and associate professor of applied mathematics at UNSW Sydney. He has developed an application and is offering it through his just-launched UNSW spin-off company named Ocean Intelligence. 

“It’s essentially Google Maps for the sea, which offers the most efficient route in real time based on the behaviour of ocean eddies,” Keating said in this article in the Saturday Paper.