Guest Post: What's your heatwave plan?

Australia's 'deadliest natural hazard': what's your heatwave plan?

Andrew Gissing, Macquarie University and Lucinda Coates, Macquarie University

Heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard, but a recent survey has found that many vulnerable people do not have plans to cope with extreme heat.

Working with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre and the Bureau of Meteorology, my colleagues and I surveyed 250 residents and 60 business managers in Western Sydney and the NSW North Coast.

We found that 45% of those at risk – including the elderly, ill and very young – did not proactively respond to heatwave warnings as they did not think it necessary or did not know what to do.

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Read more:
Cities need more than air conditioning to get through heat waves

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Few at-risk people reported moving to cooler locations, and more than 20% of people in Western Sydney were concerned about the impacts of energy prices on their ability to use air-conditioning. For most people, extreme heat left them feeling hot and uncomfortable or unable to sleep, though around 15% felt unwell. Few people reported checking on vulnerable family members, friends or family during heatwaves.

Businesses also suffered disruption, and most companies with employees working on machinery or outdoors reported lower than normal productivity.

Many people said that they didn’t need to take any further actions to adjust to future extreme temperatures. However, for some extreme heat is already impacting their living preferences, with around 10% of people indicating that they are considering moving to a cooler town or suburb.

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Read more:
Are heatwaves 'worsening' and have 'hot days' doubled in Australia in the last 50 years?

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A history of deadly heatwaves

Australia has a long history of deadly heatwaves. The table below shows numbers of deaths and death rates per 100,000 population from episodes of extreme heat in Australia by decade, reaching back to 1844. The information comes from PerilAUS, a database that records the impact of natural hazards reaching back to the early days of Australia’s European settlement

The death rate is the number of deaths per head of population in the country at that time, and was consistently, significantly higher between 1890 and 1939 than for any period before or since.

An extraordinary heatwave occurred between October 1895 to January 1896 that impacted nearly the entire continent but especially the interior. PerilAUS records 435 deaths, 89% of them within New South Wales. Deaths also occurred in South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland. Bourke, in NSW, lost 1.6% of its population to the heat: temperatures of 40℃ in the shade were already being recorded in October, mid-spring.

During the disastrous 1939 Black Friday bushfires, 71 people died in Victoria. But at least 420 people died in the heatwaves which preceded the fires, largely in New South Wales. The heatwaves were accompanied by strong northerly winds and followed a very dry six months, increasing the severity of the subsequent fires.

Most will remember the catastrophic bushfires that destroyed several towns in Victoria in 2009 but not many will remember that these fires also followed two heatwave events across Victoria and South Australia, where at least 432 people died.

In 2009, new records of three consecutive days over 43℃ in Melbourne and eight over 40℃ in Adelaide were set. A feature of these heatwaves was the very hot minimum temperatures, with Melbourne’s temperature falling to between 20-25℃ overnight and Adelaide to just 30℃.

We must all plan ahead

There is no reason why a deadly heatwave could not strike Australia again this summer, and there’s at least some evidence that the frequency of heatwaves in Australia is increasing. Sudden peaks in air-conditioning use also creates the risk of overloading electricity grids and prompting blackouts, so it’s important to think about how you can stay cool without power.

Some easy ways to stay safe include tuning into heatwave and emergency warnings by listening to radio broadcasts or searching emergency websites.

Simple measures, like rescheduling outdoor activities to cooler parts of the day, closing curtains and blinds and staying indoors are always sensible. Research suggests that elderly people may be particularly reluctant to use air conditioners, but if your household contains vulnerable people it’s important to use every cooling option available.

It may be possible for some people to use an app or timer to turn on their air conditioners during the afternoon to cool their house, then turn it off after 6pm to avoid contributing to peak demand.

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Read more:
High energy costs make vulnerable households reluctant to use air conditioning: study

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If you have friends or family who are elderly, sick or very young, make sure to check in on them. Consider selecting a cooler place, like a shopping centre or library, you can visit during peak temperatures.

Make a plan for pets and animals, particularly those who will be left outside during the day while the household is at work or school. Ensure they have shade and access to plenty of water.

On a larger scale, better urban planning and house design – and even planting shade trees near houses – are needed. Unfortunately, deadly heatwaves are part of Australia’s summer, and it’s likely they will worsen under climate change. Planning ahead can literally be a life saver.

Andrew Gissing, Adjunct Fellow, Macquarie University and Lucinda Coates, Risk Scientist, Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

March for climate justice in Bonn at COP23 calls for end to coal

Latest report from Nofibs reporter John Englart in Bonn Germany for the UN Climate Change Conference:

In the immediate vicinity of the latest UN climate change conference COP23 and the largest lignite mining area of Europe, twenty five thousand people demonstrated for the immediate implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement in the city of Bonn, Germany, calling for climate justice and an end to coal.

Just ahead of the 23rd World UN Climate Conference (COP23) a broad alliance of civil society groups made clear that the Paris climate agreement needs to be followed by further action to phase out fossil fuels such as coal.

More than 100 climate, environmental and development organisations, citizen initiatives and churches from all over world supported the march and the call to action.

The regulars were at the march: including young communists from Belgium who were a very vocal and colourful group calling for system change. Die Grunen, Greenpeace, and Friends of the Earth were also there in abundance. I saw a banner for Germanwatch NGO (they do some powerful climate policy research and writing much in English) But there were also thousands of ordinary folk from Bonn and further afield who came to say it's long past time for action on climate change.

Somewhere between 800 and 1000 people participated in a cycling critical mass to attend the protest. I spoke to a person, originally from Manchester but currently living in Belgium, who had cycled to the event.

Though predominantly German and European, it had a fair share of internationals like myself attending, and speeches from the stage were in Deutsch and English. There were some powerful speakers in both languages.

It took quite some time for the march to leave MunsterPlatz and wind it's way through the streets Bonn to an end rally

Marshallese poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner recited one of her famous poems from the stage at the end rally. There were also activists with a soup kitchen feeding people hot food.

The Climate March sends a strong signal to the world’s leaders to take rapid action on fossil fuels and to step out of coal.

• For Australia, the Adani Carmichael coal mine needs to be stopped. It would be the largest coal mine in the southern hemisphere, and if this mine goes ahead, several more coal mines in the Galilee basin are likely. Australia needs to start a just transition phaseout of coal mining for local production and consumption and the global export market. Read previous report: Australia and Coal at Bonn
• Without further action, the world is on track for dangerous global warming. The lives and livelihoods of millions of people are under threat, entire island states are in danger of disappearing from rising sea-levels. Only decisive and rapid action in all countries can deliver a safe climate for all. Tackling climate change means a rapid phase out of fossil fuels, including the burning of coal and sufficient support for poor countries suffering from the impacts of climate change.
• Globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain under the ground in order to stay below 2°C, according to Ekins and McGlade (2015) See my 2015 article: 95 percent of Australian coal, 88 percent of Global Fossil Fuel reserves need to remain unburned - Implications for Queensland.
  
• Coal has no future and is already in structural decline. All over the world, renewables are rapidly expanding, being cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels. To date, six countries, states, provinces or cities have completely phased out coal power since 2014, and an additional 17 have announced a coal power phase-out date of 2030 or sooner, advises Greenpeace.
• Our governments need to stop financing coal and fossil fuels and take concrete actions to foster the transition to a 100% renewable energy future. This is the only way we'll keep global warming below 1.5c.
• We need clean energy systems in the hands of people and a just transition which ensures no one is left behind. Coal workers and their communities are already in steep decline. They need strong support, now, to build new lives with clean renewable jobs and other economic opportunities.

Australia and coal at Bonn Climate conference #COP23

First published at nofibs.com.au

On an international level, the politics around climate action have moved substantially since 2015 and the signing of the Paris Agreement. I was at the UN climate change conference in Paris – COP21 – and it was a significant moment.

But the politics in Australia is still heavily mired in the past, and the vested interests that make up our energy and mining sector. The Federal climate and energy policy of the Abbott/Turnbull government, including the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) is all built around prolonging coal use, impeding the growth of renewables and the energy transition, and doing as little as possible to meet Australia’s already ‘insufficient’ climate targets, let alone more ambituous targets needed for our fair share of global action.

Guest Post: Liz Hanna on the reality of living with 50℃ temperatures in our major cities

I have been very concerned about rising temperatures and the urban heat island effect on the people in our cities, particularly Melbourne and the City of Moreland where I live. See Climate change and heatwaves in Melbourne - a Review. Moreland Council have been one of the more pro-active local governments in reducing emissions, ameliorating the urban heat island effect through an urban forest strategy, and in working towards adaptive changes by the population of Moreland in dealing with impacts of extreme heat. Liz Hanna puts this together in the dilemmas we will face in future years as temperatures continue to rise.

The reality of living with 50℃ temperatures in our major cities

Sydney is facing 50℃ summer days by 2040, new research says.
Andy/Flickr/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Liz Hanna, Australian National University

Australia is hot. But future extreme hot weather will be worse still, with new research predicting that Sydney and Melbourne are on course for 50℃ summer days by the 2040s if high greenhouse emissions continue. That means that places such as Perth, Adelaide and various regional towns could conceivably hit that mark even sooner.

This trend is worrying, but not particularly surprising given the fact that Australia is setting hot weather records at 12 times the pace of cold ones. But it does call for an urgent response.

Most of us are used to hot weather, but temperatures of 50℃ present unprecedented challenges to our health, work, transport habits, leisure and exercise.

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Read more: Health Check: how to exercise safely in the heat

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Humans have an upper limit to heat tolerance, beyond which we suffer heat stress and even death. Death rates do climb on extremely cold days, but increase much more steeply on extremely hot ones. While cold weather can be tackled with warm clothes, avoiding heat stress requires access to fans or air conditioning, which is not always available.

The death rate in heat ramps up more rapidly than in cold.
Data from Li et al., Sci. Rep. (2016); Baccini et al., Epidemiol. (2008); McMichael et al., Int. J. Epidemiol. (2008), Author provided

Even with air conditioning, simply staying indoors is not necessarily an option. People must venture outside to commute and shop. Many essential services have to be done in the open air, such as essential services and maintaining public infrastructure.

Roughly 80% of the energy produced during muscular activity is heat, which must be dissipated to the environment, largely through perspiration. This process is far less effective in hot and humid conditions, and as a result the body’s core temperature begins to climb.

We can cope with increased temperatures for short periods – up to about half an hour – particularly those people who are fit, well hydrated and used to hot conditions. But if body temperature breaches 40-42℃ for an extended time, heat stress and death are likely. In hot enough weather, even going for a walk can be deadly.

Air conditioning may not save lives

We expect air conditioning to take the strain, but may not realise just how much strain is involved. Shade temperatures of 50℃ mean that direct sunlight can raise the temperature to 60℃ or 70℃. Bringing that back to a comfortable 22℃ or even a warm 27℃ is not always possible and requires a lot of energy – putting serious strain on the electricity grid.

Electricity transmission systems are inherently vulnerable to extreme heat. This means they can potentially fail simply due to the weather, let alone the increased demand on the grid from power consumers.

Power cuts can cause chaos, including the disruption to traffic signals on roads that may already be made less safe as their surfaces soften in the heat. Interruptions to essential services such as power and transport hamper access to lifesaving health care.

Myopic planning

It’s a dangerous game to use past extremes as a benchmark when planning for the future. The new research shows that our climate future will be very different from the past.

Melbourne’s 2014 heatwave triggered a surge in demand for ambulances that greatly exceeded the number available. Many of those in distress waited hours for help, and the death toll was estimated at 203.

Just last month, parts of New South Wales and Victoria experienced temperatures 16 degrees warmer than the September average, and 2017 is tracking as the world’s second-warmest year on record.

Preparing ourselves

Last year, the Australian Summit on Extreme Heat and Health warned that the health sector is underprepared to face existing heat extremes.

The health sector is concerned about Australia’s slow progress and is responding with the launch of a national strategy for climate, health and well-being. Reinstating climate and health research, health workforce training and health promotion are key recommendations.

There is much more to be done, and the prospect of major cities sweltering through 50℃ days escalates the urgency.

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Read more: Climate policy needs a new lens: health and well-being

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Two key messages arise from this. The first is that Australia urgently needs to adapt to the extra warming. Heat-wise communities (or “heat-safe communities” in some states) – where people understand the risks, protect themselves and look after each other – are vital to limit harm from heat exposure. The health sector must have the resources to respond to those who succumb. Research, training and health promotion are central.

The second message is that nations across the world need to improve their efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, so as to meet the Paris climate goal of holding global warming to 1.5℃.

If we can do that, we can stave off some of the worst impacts. We have been warned.

Liz Hanna, Honorary Senior Fellow, Australian National University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Large and vocal protest to Stop Adani outside Queensland Labor conference in Townsville

Photo by StopAdani

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten talk about addressing inequality inside the Queensland State Conference of the Labor Party in Townsville. Yet one of the greatest drivers of inequality is climate change driven by fossil fuels and coal mining.

Outside the state convention about 200 people turned up on Saturday morning to press the point that developing more fossil fuels, especially the Adani Carmichael coal mine, will further drive climate change. Climate change is a driver of political destabilisation, food insecurity, and inequality at a global level.

Queensland's commitment to 50 percent renewables by 2030 and zero emissions by 2050 mean little if coal and gas is continued to be exploited and exported overseas. Politicians often say that if we don't export it , then some other country will. But this is an immoral defence, with this justification known as the Drug Pusher's defence. That's what Premier Palaszczuk is arguing: an immoral case that if Queensland doesn't drive climate change by exporting coal, then some other nation will do so.

But even the Drug Pusher's defence for developing the Adani mine falls flat when you take into account there is a global energy transition occurring, and the global coal market is in structural decline. Developing any new coal mine risks becoming a stranded asset, failing at plain economics.

Stop sitting on the fence Bill Shorten on Adani coal

Photo by Julian Meehan Copyright: Creative Commons CC-by-SA

Bill Shorten has been sitting on the fence regarding the Adani Carmichael coal mine. Well, it doesn't stack up according to any social justice morality, or on it's economics or according to environmental and climate criteria.

In April Bill Shorten, interviewed for the ABC 7.30 Report, opposed the NAIF loan while hedging his bets on support for the mine. He said "I support the Adani coal mine so long as it stacks up. I hope it stacks up, by the way. But it's got to stack up commercially. It's got to stack up environmentally."

I attended Bill Shorten's Moonee Ponds office to give him a message to stop sitting on the fence over Adani's Carmichael coal mine. I met with Bill Shorten with other members of civil society during COP21 in Paris, so he knows how serious climate change is, and how important it is to reduce emissions.

Coalition parties have heads in the sand on Victorian climate and energy policy

The Victorian opposition released a statement on energy security on Tuesday. It was tweeted out by Shadow Minister for Innovation, Energy and Resources, and Renewables David Southwick MP.

The first thing to note is that it doesn't mention climate change, not even once. Even though climate change contributes to extreme heat events and severe storm events that imperils the safety of Victorians, with the threat increasing over time as temperatures rise.

The second thing to note is it doesn't include energy security in the context of an energy transition already taking place. Energy security, reliability and affordability are all important considerations, but need to be discussed in the context of broad energy transition to a zero carbon economy driven by the imperative of addressing climate change. The statement patently fails Victorians in this regard.

With the threat of protected industrial action against AGL Energy at Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B Power Stations and a counter threat by AGL Energy to lock out workers, the Victorian energy minister Lily D'Ambrosio made the right call with an application to the Fair Work Commission to seek a termination of the industrial action at AGL Loy Yang.

Reports Adani's Abbot Point coal terminal exceeded pollution limits 8 fold

Remember that story on Adani's Abbot Point export coal terminal contaminating the Caley Valley wetlands next door? And the ruckus of denial from Adani, Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce and Queensland Resources Council CEO Ian MacFarlane?


The latest update is a news report on the ABC that reveals that at one monitoring point the contaminated liquids and sediment from Abbot Point were at 8 times the legal limit.

Adani had applied and was issued an authority to release contaminated water, but with a limit of total suspended solids up to 100 milligrams per litre. The report provided by Adani Abbot Point Bulkcoal on the water release advised that the water discharged on 30 March from a licensed point on the northern side of the terminal contained 806mg/L of sediment.

Mark Butler endorses Westpac's policy assessment that excludes Adani Project while ALP policy remains mute on export coal

Shadow minister for Energy and Climate Mark Butler was on ABC Insiders program on Sunday and was critical of the Government criticising Westpac over a business policy decision, when the Government has refused to implement a Banking Royal Commission to look at financial practices that hurt lots of ordinary Australians and small businesses.

It was a very competent interview and attack on the Government, while adroitly not answering the question of opposing the mine if Adani does manage to get the financial investment required sorted. (19 international banks have now ruled out financing the mine)

All Butler's points were valid and important facts: that the demand for thermal coal imports from Australia is in decline, that the Adani project would hurt coal jobs in both Queensland and New South Wales, and that the economics of the mine simply don't stack up.

Then there is the climate risk which Butler did not emphasise but is at the heart of Westpac Bank's business climate policy and future investments in coal.

I don't fully agree with Westpac's policy, but it is a nuanced approach to supporting only new investment in metallurgical coal or high quality Newcastle benchmark thermal coal from existing basins. The Adani coal from the Carmichael mine fails the energy benchmark, and has a high ash content. It is a low to medium quality thermal coal.

I read the ALP's climate policy it took to the last election in 2016. It was a positive policy overall, but one of it's huge failings was the silence on coal and fossil fuel export, particularly the low grade Adani coal in the Galilee Basin, unconventional gas, and offshore oil exploration in the Great Australian Bight.

The ALP are happy to play both sides of the coal equation and leave the outcome as a commercial decision as they think this resolves them from responsibility of good policy.

It may be good politics, but it is bad policy when the science says we need to keep 95 percent of Australia's coal unexploited.

The fact is Westpac's climate business policy (PDF) on export coal is now more aligned to the Paris Agreement climate targets, and superior to both the Government and opposition parties policies on export coal.

That is a sad state of affairs. Here are the interview snippets from Insiders between Barry Cassidy and Mark Butler.

►@Mark_Butler_MP: the demand for thermal coal imports from Australia is actually in decline #Insiders #auspol pic.twitter.com/BKGwz6s4ax

— Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) April 29, 2017

►@Mark_Butler_MP: The economics of the Adani project don’t stack up #Westpac #Insiders #auspol pic.twitter.com/25VEolokJn

— Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) April 29, 2017

►@Mark_Butler_MP: the assessment of Westpac I’ll back any day over the assessment of Matt Canavan #Insiders #auspol pic.twitter.com/yHvr0WeWzh

— Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) April 29, 2017

Resources minister Matt Canavan's Jobs, jobs, jobs Adani coal mantra is bullshit

Jobs, jobs, and more jobs, that's the mantra by both the Liberal National Coalition Federal Government and the Queensland State Labor Government, and bugger the reef and the rising temperatures of climate change.

On Friday Westpac Bank released their climate change Position statement and 2020 action Plan. This effectively rules out any funding of Adani for the Carmichael coal project.

Matt Canavan, and Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce on Lateline, continue this mantra, to peddle the myth that 10,000 or more jobs will be generated, when in court Adani admitted only 1464 jobs would be created. In fact, Adani hope to fully automate much of the mining and transport, so jobs could be even less than stated in court.

If the Adani Carmichael coal mine proceeds, it is also likely to hurt existing coal jobs in Queensland and New South Wales.