Australia's methane emissions, the Global Methane Pledge and COP27

Image: Karryos
Methane inventories in select fossil fuel basins (size of bubble = Mt CH4/yr), coverage of satellite data (x-axis, relative to total country emissions) and annual trend rate since 2019 (y-axis).

A report on global methane emissions by Karryos shows the only country to make headway on the Global Methane Pledge this year is Australia, thanks to a sharp reduction in methane from the Bowen Basin coal mines, as reported by Renew Economy.

The report says in the last year methane emissions from the globe’s largest oil, gas and coal basins, which are responsible for a tenth of the world’s methane, were largely unchanged in the 2022 year to date compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.

“Emissions from Australia’s Bowen basin have declined by approximately 11 per cent per annum,” Karryos said in its pre-COP27 report.

In stark contrast the Advancing Global Methane Pledge Presidency event on 11 November at COP27 appeared to be endorsing fossil gas as a transition fuel, with the possibility of rorting finance to install well known established technology to reduce flaring and leaks for an industry that is already highly profitable and will likely earn income from the methane saved.

.See also the international action on methane reduction by the USA, Canada and Nigeria. 

On 11 November the US State department announced another methane pledge relating to import and export of fossil fuels, which has been criticised as diverting focus from what they should do to tackle methane emissions.

15 November: Climate and Clean Air Ministerial at COP 27 | Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt reported by ENB/IISD. "The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) saw ministers and leaders step up implementation efforts during the Climate and Clean Air Ministerial Roundtable, which took place on the sidelines of COP 27 and serves as the CCAC’s highest level political body to advance the Coalition’s work."

17 November: Very informative Ministerial on 17 November on the Global Methane pledge with an announcement that 150 countries have now signed. Methane action plans are being developed by many countries. Earlier in the day Methane action held a side-event on Methane matters: towards a global methane agreeement..

Climate Trace: tool shows global origin of emissions launched by Al Gore at COP27

 

Australia’s emissions are almost double those of Egypt, according to a new global emissions tracker - Climate Trace - launched at COP27.

The Climate TRACE platform tracks greenhouse gas emissions from around the world, providing maps and data on 72,000 power plants, oil refineries, airports, and more. 

This tool adds substantially to global transparency of reporting emissions and effectiveness of nations at reducing emissions.

The Application was launched by Former US Vice President Al Gore, with an introduction by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

Australia commits to signing Global Methane Pledge

Australia committed today to sign on to the Global Methane Pledge to cut methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030 based on 2020 levels. Australia will join 122 other countries in signing the pledge. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen released a statement this afternoon of this commitment and putting in place measures to support the farming sector to reduce methane. No mention of addressing under-reporting of methane emissions and addressing mining fugitive emissions was more nebulous.

Signing the pledge was supported by many environmental groups and the National Farmers Federation.

Victoria cut emissions by 29.8% on 2005 levels by 2020. There is a pathway to decarbonisation by 2035 to meet 1.5C target.

The Victorian Premier, Dan Andrews, announced on 20 September that Victoria Smashes Emissions Targets. Victoria achieved a 29.8 per cent emissions cut on 2005 levels up to and including 2020. Victoria had set an Emissions Reduction Target of 15 to 20 per cent reduction by 2020.

Last year i reported that Victoria reduced emissions by 24.8%, on track for 45-50% reduction by 2030

The Andrews Government rebuilt Victoria's Climate Act and set a number of interim targets. 

Energy was the top sector that needed to start the decarbonisation transition process, and the Andrews Government has tackled this with growing renewables and energy storage as a proportion of our electricity production.

Victoria’s energy sector is still the state’s largest source of emissions, but continues to see deep cuts made due to the rapid upscaling of renewable energy. The sector saw renewable electricity production increase from 21.7% of total electricity generation in 2019 to 24.8% in 2020.

Natural gas, Methane emissions reduction and the need to implement methane removal

Image: large scale methane removal possible via atmospheric solar photocatalysis wind chimney

What was I doing at 4am on a Friday morning? Watching a Methane Action (US NGO) organised webinar (1) on methane reduction and methane removal.

This webinar had Sir David King, a former chief scientist for the UK, doing a presentation. I first came across Sir David King's statements on the approaching climate crisis around 2004.(2)

Methane, coal transition, transport and forest pledges at COP26 still leave substantial emissions gap - Climate Action Tracker

 

I'd like to say the various pledges made these last two weeks have eliminated the emissions gap, but they haven't. If they are implemented and garner more signatories they will shrink the gap. New analysis by Climate Action Tracker shows that for the countries that have signed the pledges, they have closed the 2030 emissions gap between a 1.5°C path and government targets by around 9% - or 2.2 GtCO2e.

The UN Environment Program Emissions Gap report published late October showed that the planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

"Even with all new pledges and such sectoral initiatives for 2030, global emissions are still

expected to be almost twice as high in 2030 as necessary to for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Therefore, all governments need to reconsider their targets towards COP27 in 2022 to jointly

enhance mitigation ambition." says Climate Action Tracker.

The final decision of the conference is presently being worked through. There is a draft clause which  give nations that have not submitted “new or updated” 2030 targets another 12 months to “revisit and strengthen” their emissions reduction effort in their Nationally Determined contributions. 

USA-China Glasgow Declaration at COP26 maintains ambition on CO2 and methane

China and US Climate Envoys take the stage at COP26 announcing Joint Declaration

There has been a lot of pressure on China, with the lack of presence of President Xi Jingping at the Leaders summit last week. The US called out China for the lack of this presence. 

But today Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry stunned observers by announcing the China-US Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s. 

This adds to the feeling that although the outcome of COP26 may be mixed, lacking in ambition in some areas according to the Draft cover text, and still not resolving the Emissions Gap or Production Gap, there is still substantial movement going forward.

As background, China only offered a very minor update to it's NDC commitment at COP26. 

But this was after it had increased ambition at the Biden summit in April which included commitment to  join the Kigali Amendment, strengthen control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and phase down coal consumption.

In September China committed to stop funding overseas coal projects at the UN General Assembly. September. 

Even though President Xi did not attend COP26, China does have a substantial delegation at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, COP26. 

On Wednesday the USA and China announced their declaration, and outlined what actions both countries would be taking together into the 2020s. This will give a boost to those negotiators arguing for more ambition in the draft textxs for the final COP decision on mitigation, adaptation, Common timeframes and finance.

Over 100 countries sign on to Global Methane Pledge launched at COP26

Well over 100 nations have joined the pledge said United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry in articulating that reduction in the powerful greenhouse gas could prevent 0.2C of warming from being locked in by 2050. 

"Countries coming in to the pledge in the last hour. We are now up to 105 countries" says John Kerry.

Methane is is very powerful greenhouse gas, and it is one of the gases we can reduce quickly.

President Joe Biden said "One of the most important things you can do this decade is to keep 1.5 degrees within reach, is to reduce our methane emissions as quickly as possible. It amounts to about half the warming we are experiencing today. Just methane."

Victoria reduces emissions by 24.8%, on track for 45-50% reduction by 2030

Victoria achieved a 24.8 per cent emissions reduction between 2005 and 2019 and the state’s annual emissions dropped below 100 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for the first time since 1994. This are pre-pandemic 2019 figures, and it is likely emissions have further declined during the pandemic. 

The results were contained in a report tabled in the Victorian parliament .

The Andrews government has met its legislated pledge to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 ahead of schedule, and is on track to meet its target of a 28 to 33 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2025, and 45-50 per cent by 2030.

Methane Pledge debated by Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon Brookes highlighting lack of net zero transition plan

Bush Summit 2021 with Clare Armstrong, Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon-Brookes

Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce said he took credit for preventing Australia signing the Global Methane Pledge as part of Australia's Net Zero 2050 Plan. It was one of the 3 page list of demands to commit to Morrison's Net Zero by 2050 Plan.

Methane was identified in the most recent IPCC 6th Assessment report as important to reduce emissions this decade due to its high Global Warming Potential in short term time frames like 20 years. "Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH 4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality." said the report. Nature Science journal also highlighted in an editorial on 25 August 2021: Control methane to slow global warming — fast.

The issue of not signing the Global Methane pledge was raised at the Daily Telegraph Bush Summit on Friday 29 October in a discussion compared by journalist Clare Armstrong with Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce and Co-founder and CEO of Atlassian Mike Cannon-Brookes. It also highlighted the lack of any rigorous transition plan in the net zero 2050 policy, and lack of any transition plan for the agriculture sector.

UNEP Emissions Gap: planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020

The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C. 

Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target. 

Australia also falling short on our fair share of climate finance.

On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge: 

"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C." 

Global Methane Pledge aims for 30 percent methane emissions cut from 2020 levels by 2030

A global Methane Pledge will be launched at the UN Climate Change Conference at Glasgow COP26 in November. The pledge will commit countries to a collective goal of reducing global methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030 and moving towards using best available inventory methodologies to quantify methane emissions, with a particular focus on high emission sources. The pledge is an initiative of the USA and European Union.

Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas. Methane (CH4)  emissions need to be reigned in along with carbon dioxide to meet the Paris climate agreement temperature targets. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment report on climate change warns that "Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality."

Update 28 October: The Nationals carved out agriculture and any methane emissions reduction as part of commitment to support Net Zero by 2050 plan. Australia will not sign the Global Methane Pledge at COP26.

Climate activists stage protest outside #LNG18 in Perth

The Gas Industry and all the big fossil fuel companies have come to Perth to talk exploitation of fossil fuels regardless of the climate imperative agreed to in Paris in December 2015. They were greeted on the opening night by climate activists.

The 18th International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas has brought together the fossil fuel industry to discuss production efficiencies with the current low prices in LNG, and work out how they can continue to maximise drilling and exploitation into the future. There was a Welcome to Country and headline speeches by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett.

Major companies at the conference include Chevron, Shell, Inpex, ConocoPhillips, Total and Woodside Petroleum.

Professor Wadhams: If we take really serious action we can survive

Professor Peter Wadhams has spent the last 40 years working on sea-ice research, polar oceanography and how the changes in Arctic and Antarctic ice are affecting climate. He has particularly warned about the impacts of the retreat and loss of Arctic sea-ice and the threat from an Arctic methane breakout to give a substantial acceleration to global warming.

In this May 2015 interview with Judy Sole, founder of the Green Party of South Africa, he outlines the reduction of Arctic sea ice, the loss of most of the multi-year ice, where he thinks more research should be devoted and what we should do for a best chance of survival for our children.

Wadhams is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge. He is also president of the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans Commission on Sea Ice and Coordinator for the International Programme for Antarctic Buoys.

He is one of the few scientists who has been prepared to publicly speak out on major climate risks associated with loss of sea-ice and the dangers in massive methane release from methane hydrates contained in the shallow continental shelves of the Arctic, and what this means for human survival. His warnings, along with those of James Hansen and Kevin Anderson should not be ignored.

Mitigating Climate Change: Kangaroos, conservation management and sustainable harvesting at NMIT?

Could NMIT provide a model of kangaroo conservation management and sustainable harvesting? Northern Melbourne Institute of TAFE (NMIT) is in financial trouble and needs to innovate and focus on it's educational strengths. I outline one modest innovative proposal which utilises the expertise from several academic and vocational disciplines and could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate mitigation through conservation management, while utilising our unique Australian food resources for a more healthy lifestyle.

The issue of how we deal with our native fauna, particularly kangaroos, has been raised by the announcement on 19 March 2014 by the Victorian Minister for Agriculture Peter Walsh that kangaroos culled under Wildlife control permits in certain areas of the state will now be supplied to the commercial pet food market. Formerly, kangaroos shot had to be buried by landowners.

Some animal welfare activists and conservationists have criticised the measure, and queried the ethical necessity for animal culls, even raising that this may impinge on the income of traditional beef and sheep farming.(Barber 2014) Over recent decades animal welfare and prevention of cruelty to animals have become important public debates. Standards for ethical treatment of animals - both wild and domesticated - have increased due to this debate, as exemplified in the public sentiment expressed over the live animal export trade.

Guest Post: Andrew Glikson on Methane and the risk of runaway global warming

Methane and the risk of runaway global warming

By Andrew Glikson

Research was published this week showing the financial cost of methane being released from Earth’s permafrosts. But the risks go beyond financial – Earth’s history shows that releasing these stores could set off a series of events with calamitous consequences.

The sediments and bottom water beneath the world’s shallow oceans and lakes contain vast amounts of greenhouse gases: methane hydrates and methane clathrates (see Figure 1). In particular methane is concentrated in Arctic permafrost where the accumulation of organic matter in frozen soils covers about 24% of northern hemisphere continents (see Figure 2a) and is estimated to contain more than 900 billion tons of carbon.

Methane, a greenhouse gas more than 30 times more potent than CO₂, is released from previously frozen soils when organic matter thaws and decomposes under anaerobic conditions (that is, without oxygen present).

Coal Seam Gas fugitive emissions monitoring to be tightened

Updated: 17 April, 2013.
The Minister for Climate Change, Greg Combet today unveiled proposals for better monitoring of emissions from coal seam gas (CSG) production. A discussion paper sets out proposals to introduce new CSG-specific measurement and estimation methods into Australia’s greenhouse gas reporting framework.

This comes at a time of rising widespread concern on fugitive CSG emissions of methane released during CSG extraction and production. Methane over short time periods of 20 years is 100 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas contributing to climate change, while for longer time periods it is about 21 times as powerful.

"We do have an emergency" - Arctic Methane Feedback amplifying warming

As James Hansen in this video says "We DO have an emergency". He talks about climate tipping points such as the loss of summer Arctic sea ice amplifying the release of methane in permafrost on tundra landscapes and methane hydrates in the shallow East Siberian and Alaskan continental shelves. These tipping points have catastrophic consequences for our climate.

Climate tipping points are processes we don't want to launch. They are climate feedback mechanisms which take any sort of control over global warming out of our hands and threaten widespread species extinction and threaten the viability of civilisation and perhaps even human survival.

They could act either as slowly accelerating feedback mechanisms which keep increasing global temperatures by several degrees or a relatively sudden 'methane bomb' in which a large abrupt release of methane occurs. In either case, it would be disastrous for human civilisation, although in the first instance we would be like the frog in a pot of water being brought slowly to the boil, not having the where-with-all to notice the incremental changes before it is way too late.

Related: The United Nations Environment Program released a scientific report - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost - at the Doha climate talks highlighting the threat from methane from melting permafrost. See Methane and CO2 in thawing Arctic permafrost a climate tipping point | Radio Ecoshock: Climate: Arctic Thermostat Blows Up , particularly the Interview with Paul Beckwith (MP3) from the Arctic Emergency Methane Group

Global warming breaking records in Arctic says 2012 Report card

Records were broken in the Arctic during 2012 with rapid changes occurring in sea ice extent and surface melt of Greenland Ice sheet according to the latest Arctic Report Card. These changes happened despite air temperatures being fairly unremarkable. It was the warmest summer in the last 170 years on Greenland.

“The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, during a press briefing at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, Calif. “The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation.”

Methane and CO2 in thawing Arctic permafrost a climate tipping point

A new report on permafrost slowly thawing in the Arctic creating methane and carbon dioxide emissions highlights an approaching dangerous climate tipping point. There is a huge amount of organic matter frozen in permafrost, estimated to contain 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. And it is starting to melt. With no way to stop it except indirectly through us reducing the rate of global warming by reducing our own emissions.

"The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost," said lead author Kevin Schaefer, from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

"Anthropogenic emissions' targets in the climate change treaty need to account for these emissions or we risk overshooting the 2°C maximum warming target," he added.

Watch this youtube interview with Lead author Professor Kevin Schaefer, Research Scientist at the University of Colorado being interviewed at the climate talks in Doha:

The report - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (PDF) - was published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and launched at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Doha on November 27. (See media release)