Guest Post: Prof Bill Hare on Sleight of hand: Australia’s Net Zero target is being lost in accounting tricks, offsets and more gas

Bill Hare, Murdoch University

In announcing Australia’s support for fossil gas all the way to 2050 and beyond, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pushed his government’s commitment to net zero even further out of reach.

When we published our analysis in December on Climate Action Tracker, a global assessment of government climate action, we warned Australia was unlikely to achieve its net zero target, and rated its efforts as “poor.”

That’s because Australia’s long-term emissions reduction plan – released under the Morrison Coalition government and not yet revised by the Albanese Labor government – resorts to unrealistic technological fixes and emissions offsets.

Corporate 'Net Zero' BS is all the rage. Top Net Zero Corporates for greenwashing revealed

Influence Map study: Top 5 net zero greenwash companies

New InfluenceMap research published 28 November finds that corporate net zero or similar targets are rarely matched by support for government climate policy, with 58% of almost 300 companies from the Forbes 2,000 list found to be at risk of “net zero greenwash” due to their policy engagement.

Chevron, Delta Air Lines, Duke Energy, ExxonMobil, Glencore International, Nippon Steel Corporation, Repsol, Stellantis, Southern Company, and Woodside Energy Group Ltd are in the top ten dirty greenwashers. They are among the 21.5% of companies assessed to be at significant risk of “net zero greenwash” due to their policy engagement. 

The High Level Expert Group on Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities released its report to the UN Secretary-General at the UN climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November 2022. The Influence Map uses this as guidance and standards for assessing companies. Read the Climate Citizen report of the launch.

Is the petrol in your car from Ampol really carbon neutral? 'Carbon-Neutral' Fossil Fuels & State-Sponsored Greenwashing

Polly Hemming from the Australia Institute outlines the problem with Ampol's greenwashing, but also highlighting this is a problem in lack of regulation allowing the greenwashing for use of dodgy carbon credits to meet dodgy net zero targets.

Both Ampol and the Federal Government should read the Report on Addressing Greenwashing and net-zero pledges at non-state levels: the High Level Expert Group on Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities released its report to the UN Secretary-General on 9 November. 

It is Important for enforcing meaningful emissions reduction and targets by businesses, regional, city and local governments. (Addressing Greenwashing and net-zero pledges at non-state levels: New report by UN Expert group at COP27)

See also Coverge of the UN greenwashing and netzero report and its implication for business, state and local governments. at The Conversation.

Watch the video....

Addressing Greenwashing and net-zero pledges at non-state levels: New report by UN Expert group at COP27

The High Level Expert Group on Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities released its report to the UN Secretary-General today at the UN climate talks, COP27, in Egypt.

The report cracks down on greenwashing and weak net zero pledges that threaten to undermine global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.

Non-state entities are all the regional and local governments, corporations and smaller businesses who all have a carbon footprint and need to address their greenhouse gas emissions. 

The Honourable Catherine McKenna, chair of the UN-appointed expert group and former Canadian Minister of Environment and Climate Change as well as Minister of Infrastructure, said the report provides a crucial roadmap to bring integrity to net zero commitments by industry, financial institutions, cities and regions and to support a global, equitable transition to a sustainable future.

“We must have zero tolerance for net-zero greenwashing,” said the Secretary-General at the launch of the Group’s report at the UN Climate Conference (COP27) at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 8 November 2022. Calling the report “a how-to guide to ensure credible, accountable net-zero pledges,” he explained that it provides clarity in four key areas – environmental integrity, credibility, accountability, and the role of governments. 

“Solving the climate crisis requires strong political leadership. I urge all government leaders to provide non-state entities with a level playing field to transition to a just, net-zero future,” added the Secretary-General. 

The Promises Gap of Net Zero by 2050 Honest Government Ad

Half way through the UN Climate conference COP26 meeting in Glasgow, Juice Media highlight the Promises Gap of Net Zero by 2050. Features a cameo of Greta Thunberg.

Guest video: Fact-checking & Debunking Morrison's Net Zero 2050 'Plan' | Good COP Bad COP

The Australia Institute:

So Scott Morrison and Angus Taylor announced a net zero emissions by 2050 plan that projects that things will go wonderfully and that they won't need to change anything, especially not phasing out fossil fuel! How good.

However, their supposed confidence in beating their very weak 2030 target isn't enough to actually legislate any changes or increased commitments. This one is a real bin fire, and to help us along, and in honour of COP26 beginning in Glasgow very soon, we're drinking Scotland's finest scotch. Join us as we unpack loads of spin, mistruths and discuss what Australia should actually be taking to COP. (Hint: support and protection of the fossil fuel industry doesn't make the cut)

Methane Pledge debated by Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon Brookes highlighting lack of net zero transition plan

Bush Summit 2021 with Clare Armstrong, Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon-Brookes

Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce said he took credit for preventing Australia signing the Global Methane Pledge as part of Australia's Net Zero 2050 Plan. It was one of the 3 page list of demands to commit to Morrison's Net Zero by 2050 Plan.

Methane was identified in the most recent IPCC 6th Assessment report as important to reduce emissions this decade due to its high Global Warming Potential in short term time frames like 20 years. "Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH 4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality." said the report. Nature Science journal also highlighted in an editorial on 25 August 2021: Control methane to slow global warming — fast.

The issue of not signing the Global Methane pledge was raised at the Daily Telegraph Bush Summit on Friday 29 October in a discussion compared by journalist Clare Armstrong with Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce and Co-founder and CEO of Atlassian Mike Cannon-Brookes. It also highlighted the lack of any rigorous transition plan in the net zero 2050 policy, and lack of any transition plan for the agriculture sector.

Morrison Net Zero 2050 Plan a fraud, with plans to double coal exports, new gas expansion

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor with 'Net zero Plan' slide

Prime Minister Scott Morrison accompanied by Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor announced Australia's commitment to Net Zero by 2050. But there will be no change to the 26-28% emissions reduction target by 2030 that was submitted in 2015 to the Paris Agreement.

ABC political analyst Laura Tingle commented "All this time to wait for a 15 page slide set with literally nothing new in it...." and "The plan is based on our existing policies".

Australia is taking a technology not taxes meet and cheat projection to Glasgow, which is another way of climate delay and denial while expanding fossil fuel production. 

"You will be supported by our data projection that will see us exceed our 2030 target with emissions reduction of up to 35% by 2030. We will keep our commitment, though, when it comes to our pledge that we made, and took to the last election of 26 to 28%, but we will meet it, and we will beat it. And we’ll beat it with emissions reductions we believe about the 35%." said Morrison. 

Yeah the work of all the states will see Australia achieve 37-42% emissions reduction. Federal Government doing SFA according to modelling on 2030 climate targets.

"This is the right plan for Australia – to summarise the outcome from it, which we’ll see in the plan, Australians $2,000 better off on average in 2050 compared with no Australian action." says Angus Taylor. 

But acting fast with renewables with strong 2030 targets showed citizens would be $5000 better off according to Business Council of Australia report. Guardian Australia Politics Live

Find below Ministerial press release, video of the press conference, some twitter commentary, and statements by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and shadow Climate spokesperson Chris Bowen.

Australia's 2030 climate targets for COP26

Source: Climate Council: from Paris to Glasgow report, 21 October, 2021

The Nationals have now given in principle support for Net zero by 2050. But 2050 is so far in the distance it is effectively irrelevant to what commitment and ambition Australia takes to the UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, COP26. 

Ratcheting up 2030 ambition and targets is what is really at issue. This was written into the Paris Agreement that countries increase ambition after 5 years. That time is now. Senate estimate questioning on 25 October reveals Australia's 2030 target not being updated (See update at end of post)

While we wait for the Liberal Party to reflect upon the Nationals Party confidential 3 page list of demands on committing Australia to Net Zero by 2050 target, lets reflect a bit more on the 2030 target for Australia. 

According to Climate Works Australia analysis, actions by Australian state governments has already set a de facto emissions target of 37 - 42 percent by 2030 based on a 2005 baseline eclipsing the 26-28 per cent set in 2015 by Prime Minister Abbott that formed part of Australia's initial Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and updated NDC this year.

ClimateWorks Australia: defacto national target set by state actions of 37-42%

For Australia to be in the ball park for dealing and to be taken seriously at the UN climate talks it really needs to match the commitments of USA, Europe and UK. The lower end of that range is 46 to 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 on 2005 baseline. The Climate Council says a science based target is for Australia to aim to reduce emissions by 75% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2035.

At the moment Prime Minister Morrison is taking to the G20 and Glasgow COP26 a commitment for net zero by 2050, but no change in 2030 climate targets as submitted in our NDC, no plan to increase our climate finance to our fair share, and no indication we will sign on to the Global Methane Pledge.