Guest Post: After nearly 10 years of debate, COP29’s carbon trading deal is seriously flawed

 

Kate Dooley, The University of Melbourne

Negotiators at the COP29 climate conference in Baku have struck a landmark agreement on rules governing the global trade of carbon credits, bringing to a close almost a decade of debate over the controversial scheme.

The deal paves the way for a system in which countries or companies buy credits for removing or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere in the world, then count the reductions as part of their own climate efforts.

Some have argued the agreement provides crucial certainty to countries and companies trying to reach net-zero through carbon trading, and will harness billions of dollars for environmental projects.

However, the rules contain several serious flaws that years of debate have failed to fix. It means the system may essentially give countries and companies permissions to keep polluting.

Guest Post: Prof Bill Hare on Sleight of hand: Australia’s Net Zero target is being lost in accounting tricks, offsets and more gas

Bill Hare, Murdoch University

In announcing Australia’s support for fossil gas all the way to 2050 and beyond, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pushed his government’s commitment to net zero even further out of reach.

When we published our analysis in December on Climate Action Tracker, a global assessment of government climate action, we warned Australia was unlikely to achieve its net zero target, and rated its efforts as “poor.”

That’s because Australia’s long-term emissions reduction plan – released under the Morrison Coalition government and not yet revised by the Albanese Labor government – resorts to unrealistic technological fixes and emissions offsets.

Momemt of truth for Fossil Fuels: Warning from IEA that Fossil Fuel companies need to transition or die

The IEA report on The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions is worth while reading and taking note of in regards to fossil fuel production and energy transition. For many years the IEA was seen as a conservative body supportive of fossil fuels, but increasingly it has advocated for a strong energy transition based on the science and the Paris Agreement targets.

The report advocates that the Fossil Fuel Industry is at a turning point,  and must do much more to respond to the threat of climate change. The report articulates that:

• less than 1% of global clean energy investment comes from oil and gas companies
• Nations and Companies need to consider scaling back oil and gas operations over time – not expanding them. "There is no way around this." said Fatih Birol. 
• Fossil Fuel producers need to embrace the clean energy economy, and the opportunities involved.

The IEA is throwing the Fossil Fuel companies a lifeline, to be part of the clean energy transition through investment, the utilisation of skills in related areas. The report does not detail the result if companies choose to resist and are aided by corrupt and bought off governments. A very bumpy ride for the companies and all of us as the planet cooks.

While the IEA supports efforts at Carbon Capture and Storage both in the report and in comments by IEA head Fatih Birol were very pointed about the unrealistic expectations of carbon capture and storage for abating continued fossil fuels.

“The oil and gas industry is facing a moment of truth at COP28 in Dubai. With the world suffering the impacts of a worsening climate crisis, continuing with business as usual is neither socially nor environmentally responsible,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil and gas producers around the world need to make profound decisions about their future place in the global energy sector. The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution. This special report shows a fair and feasible way forward in which oil and gas companies take a real stake in the clean energy economy while helping the world avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”

Fossil Fuel lobbyists are likely to be at their peak at the Dubai climate conference. Will they listen to reason from the International Energy Agency? Will the Petro States listen to the IEA or the companies wanting to extract maximum profit in cooking the planet?

Guest Post: The unsafe Safeguard Mechanism: how carbon credits could blow up Australia’s main climate policy

 

James Adams/Unsplash

Andrew Macintosh, Australian National University and Don Butler, Australian National University

This article is part of a series by The Conversation, Getting to Zero, examining Australia’s energy transition.

A time bomb is ticking inside the Albanese government’s climate policy. When it explodes, Australia will fall short of its climate targets and leave a gaggle of investors shirtless.

The problem arises from a poorly understood aspect of the net zero transition: carbon credits or offsets.

The centrepiece of Australia’s climate policy is a carbon pricing scheme known as the Safeguard Mechanism. It places caps on the emissions of around 220 of the country’s largest mining, gas and industrial facilities, based on the emissions intensity of their operations. Every year through to 2030 these caps will decline by between 1% and nearly 5%.

The facilities have two ways to keep their emissions within the caps. They can reduce them, or they can buy and surrender one of two forms of credits, the most significant being Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) issued under Australia’s carbon offset scheme.

Guest Post: Labor’s scheme to cut industrial emissions is worryingly flexible

 

BHP steelworks at Port Kembla Phto: John Englart

Rebecca Pearse, Australian National University

The federal government today proposed new rules to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s polluting industrial sector. The rule changes apply to a measure known as the “safeguard mechanism”, and are supposed to stop Australia’s top 215 emitters, such as new coal, oil and gas projects, from emitting over certain thresholds, or “baselines”.

The safeguard mechanism was established by the Abbott Coalition government in 2016. It’s been widely criticised for lacking teeth – indeed, industrial emissions have actually increased since the mechanism began.

The safeguard mechanism was reviewed last year and Labor had promised a revamp. The fine detail of the changes is crucial, because it will determine how well Australia brings down its emissions on the path to net zero.

So would Labor’s proposed reforms, if implemented, be effective and equitable? Unfortunately, it appears no. They involve only very modest changes to a very flexible regime, and many issues plaguing the safeguard mechanism under the previous government continue.

Chubb Review into the integrity of Australian Carbon Offsets sends mixed messages

Chubb review into the integrity of carbon offsets ignores the elephant in the room argues the Climate Council: too many major emitters are buying ACCUs so that they can continue to pollute as usual.

“The Chubb Review has provided some positive recommendations for improving the integrity and transparency of carbon credits. But the most important question is: where and how will carbon credits be used?" says Climate Council Head of Advocacy Dr Jennifer Rayner

“Big polluters shouldn’t be able to keep polluting as usual by offsetting much or all of their emissions under the Safeguard Mechanism."

The Chubb Review found the carbon offsets scheme was "fundamentally" well designed when it was first introduced, but called for more data transparency which would improve integrity, recommending that "the default should be that data be made public, including carbon estimation areas" and the government should consider a national platform to share this information.

Carbon Credits & Offsets | Honest Government Ad

All the lowdown and analysis on how the Australian Government is using carbon credits and offests to undermine climate action.

Detailed analysis in this Honest Government Ad video by The Juice Media.

There is also a detailed podcast interview with Polly Hemming from the Australia Institute on the subject to further fill you in on how the Scott Morrison Government and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor have corrupted an essential and needed action to maintain fossil fuel production and profits.