Cryosphere in peril: Calls by Scientists, President of Chile, Prime Minister of Iceland, UN Chief to phase out Fossil Fuels at COP28

Before attending COP28 in Dubai, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres did a flying vist to Antarctica with Gabriel Boric, President of Chile, to see and talk with polar scientists on the changes to the Cryosphere and Antarctica in particular.

 "What happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica. " Guterres said.

"Without changing course, we’re heading towards a calamitous three-degree Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century. That means losing the West Antarctica Ice Sheet almost entirely. This alone could ultimately push up sea levels by around five meters." said the UN Chief.

The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative published its latest State of the Cryosphere report 2023 on 16 November 2023, outlining in 6 detailed chapters covering the changes and impacts of Ice Sheets, Mountain Glaciers and Snow, Sea Ice, Permafrost and Polar Oceans. The report included a forward by the President of Chile and Prime Minister of Iceland calling for a phaseout of fossil fuels to limit damages to the cryosphere, and consideration of the issue in the Global Stocktake at COP28. 

ExClimate: Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier revs up with climate change

A "glacial pace" can no longer be used to describe the speed of the Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland. The latest study of Jakobshavn Isbræ (Jakobshavn Glacier) from Greenland reveals the glacier is setting new speed records. In the summer of 2012 the glacier reached a record speed of more than 17 kilometres per year, or over 46 metres per day. This is an unprecedented speed for a glacier and appears to be the fastest ever recorded for any glacier or ice stream in Greenland or Antarctica, according to a new study published in The Cryosphere.

The glacier discharges ice bergs in calving events from West Greenland and it's calving face continues to retreat over a deep depression in the fjord, which adds to it's instability.

“We are now seeing summer speeds more than 4 times what they were in the 1990s on a glacier which at that time was believed to be one of the fastest, if not the fastest, glacier in Greenland,” says Ian Joughin, a researcher at the Polar Science Center, University of Washington and lead-author of the study: Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ.

Ice Sheets and Sea level: what the past tells us is likely.

Watch this informative video By Peter Sinclair and the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media on ice sheet collapse and sea level rise and past climates.

"We are still potentially underestimating the instability of the ice sheets" informs Stefen Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the oceans from Postdam University. "The IPCC has greatly revised it's estimates of how unstable the Greenland ice sheet was"

Dr Richard Alley in a graph illuminates that on current CO2 levels we can expect sea level rise to impact 10 per cent of the Earth's population, hundreds of millions of people. He says in the video that "Greenland is very tightly tied to temperature, and if it gets too hot, it goes away".

Greenland Melting detected during Winter a climate change concern

Satellite data for the first several weeks of 2013 is showing that melting is occurring in south east Greenland. In summer this would be expected, but January-February is the dead of winter. Some portions of Greenland have experienced more than 30 days of melting since the start of this year, a worrying trend.

According to email correspondence with Ted Scambos from National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) sent to Tom Yulsman, all of Greenland has been 2 to 6 degrees C warmer than the 30 year mean. Tom quotes Ted Scambos on his blog: "Air temperatures along the southeastern coast for the period Feb 10 – 15 are running 2 to 6 C above normal. Nuuk, the capital, on the very southern west coast, is currently just a couple of degrees below freezing."

Related: Is Climate Change causing an exponential rate of Ice sheet Mass Loss, sea level rise? | Global Warming threshold for Greenland Ice Sheet collapse reduced to 1.6 degrees C

Is Climate Change causing an exponential rate of Ice sheet Mass Loss, sea level rise?

Climate scientist James Hansen and his colleague Makiko Sato have released a new discussion paper with updated data on ice sheet mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica, with implications for possible multi-metre sea level rise this century. It makes for some interesting reading - there is a link to Hansen's website and the paper at the end.

The thesis that Hansen has put forward for several years is that Ice Sheet collapse is a non-linear process: that with the inclusion of amplifying climate feedbacks it is likely to follow an exponential rate of acceleration - a doubling rate. It might be a 10 year doubling time, or less. This will lead to extensive sea level rise, perhaps in the order of 5 metres this century.

But accurate data measurements of ice mass loss via laboriously estimating mass input and output has only been available since the early 1990s, and accurate satellite measurements (Gravimetry) via the GRACE satellites since 2000.

What these measurements show is that ice mass loss from both Greenland and Antarctica are accelerating, but the data for the time period is still too short to determine whether ice sheet mass loss will follow a somewhat linear path, or an exponential path doubling every 10 years or shorter time period.

Caption: Figure 2: Greenland (a) and Antarctic (b) mass change deduced from gravitational field measurements by Velicogna (2009) and best-fits with 5-year and 10-year mass loss doubling times. From NASA: Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow Hansen and Sato July 2011

Update 14 Jan 2013: Matt Owens from Fairfax Climate Watch had a similar idea in reviewing Hansen's discussion paper. Read his initial analysis: Sea level rise could crimp GDP; US direct losses could top 1/4 trillion per year during 2040-2050. On 11 January 2013 he updated his analysis with a new article: Surprising negative feedback could mean epic disaster. Both are worthwhile reading.

Global warming breaking records in Arctic says 2012 Report card

Records were broken in the Arctic during 2012 with rapid changes occurring in sea ice extent and surface melt of Greenland Ice sheet according to the latest Arctic Report Card. These changes happened despite air temperatures being fairly unremarkable. It was the warmest summer in the last 170 years on Greenland.

“The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, during a press briefing at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, Calif. “The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation.”

Climate change connection between Global temperatures, ice volume and sea level

There is a rapid response connection between polar temperature changes, ice volume and sea leavel according to a new method of dating of sea level records and comparing them with temperature data and ice core records for the last 150,000 years.

Previously the dating of ice-volume changes relied on the ‘Red Sea relative sea-level (RSL) record’. However this dating method did not have independent age control which inhibited detailed comparison with other well-dated climate parameters, such as temperature or CO2 records from ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. The new method of dating the RSL record used Mediterranean data from radiometric (Uranium-series) dating of cave deposits which could be applied to the last glacial cycle reaching back 150,000 years, providing a continuous sea-level record with excellent independent age control.

According to the study sea level rise reached speeds of "at least 1.2 metres per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction" in the last 150,000 years.

One of the study authors, Professor Elco Rohling from the National Oceanography Centre Southampton said: "This is the first time that these rates could be measured for any other period than the end-of-ice age 'terminations/deglaciations'. Although it is always hard to step from palaeo reconstructions to future projections, it suggests that when significant ice-volume adjustments happen, they are rarely slow."

Greenland Ice Sheet experiences unprecedented surface melt

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet reached up to 97% of the ice sheet area by July 12, an unprecedented level of melting, according to readings gathered and cross-referenced from three different satellites by several scientists.

Satellite measurements showed that about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface on July 8, but over the subsequent 4 days the melting had dramatically accelerated to cover an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface by July 12. This was the largest area seen thawing ever measured on the Greenland ice sheet by satellite measurements.

Arctic warming at more than double the global warming average

A new scientific study warns that the Arctic is warming at up to four times faster than the global average, due to the combination of melting sea ice and global atmospheric warming.

See also: July 2011 - Warming Arctic air temperatures causing less snow, more rain, faster ice melt | Jan 2011 - Albedo Feedback: Climate Models under estimate loss of reflectivity in the Arctic

Global Warming threshold for Greenland Ice Sheet collapse reduced to 1.6 degrees C

New research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Universidad Complutense de Madrid has lowered the best estimate for the irreversible collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet down to 1.6 °C, making the ice sheet more vulnerable than previously thought to global warming. The previous best estimate was 3.1 °C. As we currently have 0.8 °C of global warming, by the middle of the century we could easily pass this new threshold unleashing an ultimate sea level rise of several metres.

Already we have seen record summer melting in Greenland in 2010, and near record mass loss in 2011. According to NOAA the melt season in 2011 lasted up to 30 days longer than average and it affected 31 percent of the ice sheet surface, making 2011 one of just three years since 1979 where melt area exceeded 30 percent. Polar regions are warming much faster and to a greater degree than any other latitude on earth.

Greenland melting in 2011 well above average with near-record mass loss

Professor Marco Tedesco from the City College of New York reports that extreme melting continues from the Greenland Ice sheet this year with close-to-record simulated surface mass balance, bare ice exposure, albedo and runoff anomalies. He warned that glaciers could undergo a self-amplifying cycle of melting and warming that would be difficult to halt.

Related: Record summer melting in 2010 | Greenland sets a new melt record in 2010 - sea levels to rise

'Drawing that line in the Arctic ice' - Greenpeace CEO arrested on Arctic oil rig

In the chilly waters of Iceberg Alley off the Greenland coast a little drama played itself out today between Greenpeace and oil explorer Cairn Energy over deep sea oil exploration in the pristine Arctic environment rapidly warming through climate change. Greenpeace are demanding the oil spill response plan for the rig should be made public. Kumi Naidoo, International Executive Director of Greenpeace, personally boarded the oil rig Leiv Eiriksson today with another Greenpeace activist, Ulvar Arnkvaern to deliver this message, with both being arrested.

Related: Arctic Deep sea oil: Cairn Energy oil spill response plan missing | Greenpeace: Help us protect the Arctic

Arctic Deep sea oil: Cairn Energy oil spill response plan missing

Activists from Greenpeace have been harassing the drilling program of Cairn Energy in the Arctic off the Greenland coast citing the lack of a publicly available oil spill response plan for drilling in the sensitive Arctic environment. Cairn Energy, an Edinburgh registered company, is presently involved in exploratory deep sea oil drilling in the Arctic in the Davis Strait (Iceberg Alley).

Arctic Permafrost thawing raising CO2 levels

Global warming is not going away, and over coming decades will worsen through the earth passing tipping points for carbon feedback mechanisms. One such tipping point is the thawing of arctic permafrost which will release huge amounts of carbon dioxide and further accelerate climate change. A new study has found that up to two thirds of permafrost is likely to disappear by 2200, much of it in the next 100 years, as a result of warming arctic temperatures resulting in the release of an estimated 190 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere.

Record summer melting in Greenland 2010

I reported in January that Greenland sets a new melt record in 2010 - sea levels to rise. This image from the NASA Earth Observatory Image of the day site shows clearly the level of melting. During 2010 there was little summer snow to replenish the losses, with melting starting early and finishing much later resulting in a melting period 50 days longer than average.

The image shows 2010 compared to the average number of melt days per year between 1979 and 2009. It was assembled from microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) of the Defense Meteorological Satellites Program.

Read more at Earth Observatory: Record Melting in Greenland during 2010

Greenland sets a new melt record in 2010 - sea levels to rise

The chilly fact is that the Greenland ice cap is melting at an accelerated rate. The big melt achieved a new record in 2010 according to new research.

"This past melt season was exceptional, with melting in some areas stretching up to 50 days longer than average," said Dr. Marco Tedesco, Director of the Cryosphere Processes Laboratory at the City College of New York (CCNY - CUNY), who is leading a project studying variables that affect ice sheet melting. "Melting in 2010 started exceptionally early at the end of April and ended quite late in mid- September."

Arctic climate warming at unprecedented rate due to Global Warming

A new reportcard for 2010 highlights record temperatures across Canadian Arctic and Greenland, reduced summer sea ice cover, and record snow cover decreases, indicating rapid global warming in the arctic polar region.



The report card was produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the US Department of Commerce, and tracks recent environmental changes, with 18 essays on different parts of the environment, written by a team of 69 international authors, and supported by 176 scientific references. The report card has been produced on an annual basis since 2006.

Impacts of rising sea level a wake up call on climate change

The Federal Parliament committee report on rising sea level caused by global warming has been welcomed by Friends of the Earth (FOE). Damien Lawson, National Climate Justice Coordinator of Friends of the Earth said "The report is a wake up call about the sea level rise threat, but it may have underestimated the sea level rise problem. Around the world changes in the climate system are breaching worse case scenarios. It is likely sea level rises will be the same. The view that sea level rise may not be more than a metre is assuming no major loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. That is a dangerous assumption given the recent evidence of warming there, and the fragility of many of the ice shelves which are restraining glacier outflow."

FOE Sea level rise report may underestimate problem | Melbourne Sea level rise walk

La Niña brings some rain, as Global Climate hots up

One of the important weather factors in the Pacific basin affecting global weather but particularly Pacific Rim countries is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño and La Niña are caused by a change in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean which affects trade wind patterns which bring rain and drought to regions around the Pacific and further afield. A La Niña condition has been developing since February 2007 and is likely to last to April 2008.

Related: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

La Niña operating until April 2008

In November/December 2007 we are experiencing La Niña with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific below average, and temperatures in the western tropical Pacific above average. La Niña brings rain to Indonesia and Australia and drought to the southwest of the United States, western Mexico, Peru and Chile. Effects are typically opposite to those associated with El Niño.

The Southern Oscillation has a global impact. NASA describes the effect as:

"Globally, La Niña is characterized by wetter than normal conditions west of the equatorial central Pacific over northern Australia and Indonesia during the northern hemisphere winter, and over the Philippines during the northern hemisphere summer. Wetter than normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil, during the northern hemisphere winter season. During the northern hemisphere summer season, the Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal, especially in northwest India. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons."

Australia: Higher than average temperatures and rainfall predicted

The widespread rains in Victoria and New South Wales over the last week were probably partly induced by La Niña. The POAMA model run daily at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts "La Niña conditions to remain over the coming months, persisting until around April 2008." Read more about Australian rainfall patterns during La Niña events.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting higher than average temperatures over much of southern Australia from January to March 2008. The temperature on New Years Eve in Melbourne is predicted to be 38 degrees. There is also a greater chance for higher than the median rainfall "in a large area extending from southeast Queensland across both the northern inland and east of NSW. The southwest of WA also has similar chances, although it's a seasonally dry time of the year in this part of the country."

For North and South America "La Niña is the diva of drought,” explained Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “It keeps the Pacific jet stream farther north, toward Oregon, Washington, and Canada, so the U.S. Southwest and Southeast get less moisture.”

Warmest Decade on Record

The World Meteorology Organisation announced in a press release on 13 December that the decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record. "The global mean surface temperature for 2007 is currently estimated at 0.41°C/0.74°F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.20°F." The statement also detailed "the record-low Arctic sea ice extent...., a relatively small Antarctic Ozone Hole; development of La Niña in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific; and devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world."

"2007 global temperatures have been averaged separately for both hemispheres. Surface temperatures for the northern hemisphere are likely to be the second warmest on record, at 0.63°C above the 30-year mean (1961-90) of 14.6°C/58.3°F. The southern hemisphere temperature is 0.20°C higher than the 30-year average of 13.4°C/56.1°F, making it the ninth warmest in the instrumental record since 1850."

According to the WMO statement "Australia recorded its coldest ever June with the mean temperature dropping to 1.5°C below normal." and "while conditions were not as severely dry as in 2006, long term drought meant water resources remained extremely low in many areas. Below average rainfall over the densely populated and agricultural regions resulted in significant crop and stock losses, as well as water restrictions in most major cities."

Sea Level Rise and Greenland Ice melt Accelerating

The WMO highlighted that sea level continues to rise "substantially above the average for the 20th century of about 1.7 mm per year." According to satellite measurements "global averaged sea level has been rising at about 3 mm per year" since 1993. This comes hot on the news that the melting of the Greenland icecap is accelerating according to study by the Steffen Research Group from the University of Colorado at Boulder. "The amount of ice lost by Greenland over the last year is the equivalent of two times all the ice in the Alps, or a layer of water more than one-half mile deep covering Washington, D.C." said lead climate scientists Konrad Steffen. "The more lubrication there is under the ice, the faster that ice moves to the coast," said Steffen. "Those glaciers with floating ice 'tongues' also will increase in iceberg production." Greenland ice melt currently contributes to global sea levels by about 0.5 millimeters per year. Some climate scientists like James Hansen believe the Greenland ice sheet may disintegrate within 100 years leading to a sea level rise of several metres.

Sources:

* NASA Earth Observatory La Nina for November. See also from February 2007 El Nino May Be Morphing to La Nina and in October 2007 La Nina Strenghtens in Autumn 2007
* NASA Earth Observatory La Niña Factsheet
* Bureau of Meteorology El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
* Bureau of Meteorology Dec 17, 2007 - Warmer season favoured in southern Australia
* Bureau of Meteorology Dec 17, 2007 - Mixed March quarter rainfall outlook
* World Meteorological Organization Dec 13, 2007Press Release No 805
* NASA Earth Observatory - Media Alert Dec 11, 2007 GREENLAND MELT ACCELERATING, ACCORDING TO CU-BOULDER STUDY

Arctic Sea Ice heading for Rapid Disintegration: Greenland Ice Sheet melting

Arctic summer sea ice is headed towards rapid disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, according to 'the Big Melt' (PDF), a new review of recent scientific literature on climate change produced by www.carbonequity.info. We have gone past the tipping point for Arctic sea ice and now we watch the disintegration of the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets which will result in catastrophic changes in sea level of 5 metres or more in the next 100 years.