Cryosphere in peril: Calls by Scientists, President of Chile, Prime Minister of Iceland, UN Chief to phase out Fossil Fuels at COP28

Before attending COP28 in Dubai, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres did a flying vist to Antarctica with Gabriel Boric, President of Chile, to see and talk with polar scientists on the changes to the Cryosphere and Antarctica in particular.

 "What happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica. " Guterres said.

"Without changing course, we’re heading towards a calamitous three-degree Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century. That means losing the West Antarctica Ice Sheet almost entirely. This alone could ultimately push up sea levels by around five meters." said the UN Chief.

The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative published its latest State of the Cryosphere report 2023 on 16 November 2023, outlining in 6 detailed chapters covering the changes and impacts of Ice Sheets, Mountain Glaciers and Snow, Sea Ice, Permafrost and Polar Oceans. The report included a forward by the President of Chile and Prime Minister of Iceland calling for a phaseout of fossil fuels to limit damages to the cryosphere, and consideration of the issue in the Global Stocktake at COP28. 

Climate Signals: Record global daily temperatures, Sea Surface temperatures, and Antarctic sea ice extent decline

Across the globe we are seeing incredible anomalies in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice extent decline.

Record global daily temperatures in July

"23rd day of record global temperatures, likely the hottest 23 days in the last 100,000+ years, making much of the planet unsafe for children and other living things." Professor Eliot Jacobson

Warm ocean water melting Antarctica from below adding to sea level rise

Latest observational data from Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica confirms the retreat of ice shelf grounding lines caused by warmer water melting the underside of the ice shelves.

Warm ocean waters are melting the junction of the ice shelves where they meet the bedrock, so that the grounding line retreats. This then allows for an acceleration in glacier dischange of ice mass to the sea increasing sea level rise.

Many of the glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have topographies where they get deeper as they go further inland.

As the ice shelf grounding line retreats into deeper areas due to basal melting by warmer water, it moves much more rapidly, which then allows more warm water to continue the process of basal melting, and so the ice mass discharge from the glaciers speeds up.

Australia becoming drier, Antarctica colder due to Westerly winds speeding up

The Southern Annular Mode consists of Westerly winds that blow continuously over the southern ocean, helping to insulate the southern continent of Antarctica. In recent decades these winds have sped up and moved further south as a result of climate change. This results in drawing rain clouds to the south away from Australia particularly affecting Autumn and winter rainfall.

The Bureau of Meteorology has observed a long term trend for south-eastern and south western Australia becoming more dry. New research has identified reasons for this and why Antarctica has not experienced a warming trend like the rest of the planet.

Western Australia has suffered a 20 per cent loss in winter rainfall since the 1960s. South eastern Australia has suffered a 10 per cent reduction in winter rainfall from the 1990s.

Even during the back to back La Ninas in 2011 and 2012, the Drying trend in Australia still evident despite being the wettest two year period on record. But we have known for some time that Less rain across southern Australia is a long term climate trend due primarily to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increasing atmospheric temperatures thus changing the dynamic of the sub-tropical jet stream and thus the number and intensity of storms bringing autumn and winter rainfall to southern Australia.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures affect Antarctic climate change

A new source of warming has been found for Antarctica: the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Warm waters in the Pacific have been connected to warming in Antarctica, but this is the first time that a connection with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures has been made.

"Our findings reveal a previously unknown--and surprising--force behind climate change that is occurring deep in our southern hemisphere: the Atlantic Ocean," says Xichen Li, a doctoral student in NYU's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the study's lead author. "Moreover, the study offers further confirmation that warming in one region can have far-reaching effects in another."

Global warming in recent decades has caused dramatic warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Changes in Antarctic climate have been attributed to greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone hole , sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific warming (Qinghua Ding et al 2011) and the impact of El Nino.

Antarctic ice mass accelerating according to GRACE reanalysis, Pine Island Glacier in sustained retreat

The continent of Antarctica is a land of complexity and paradox, especially when talking about climate change. It is our driest and coldest desert on the planet but locks up an enormous amount of fresh water in it's thick ice sheets. The southern ocean surrounds the continent, insulating it from warmer latitudes, but those currents also bring warmer waters from the tropics to interact with the giant ice shelves around the continent.

And of course there is the paradox of Antarctic sea ice which is recording record sea ice extent over recent years due to the complex winds, currents and dynamics of melt water.

Sea ice growth or melt does not affect sea level rise. We need to look at what the great Ice sheets are doing to determine whether they are accelerating mass loss and contributing to sea level rise.

The GRACE satellites provide us with a remote measuring tool for ice mass balance, but like all tools it comes with certain biases built in. The job of the scientist is to analyse and correct for these biases.

The Paradox of Antarctic Sea Ice 2: Research vessel trapped by summer sea ice

I came across an article lambasting the Australian Antarctic Expedition scientists on board the MV Akademik Shokalskiy trapped by fast ice since Christmas Eve in the Commonwealth Bay region of Antarctica. Climate scientists and tourists are on board the vessel on the Spirit of Mawson voyage, retracing Sir Douglas Mawson's Antarctic expedition.

The ship found itself locked in thick ice after experiencing blizzard conditions which moved and piled up ice flows.

Ships can get trapped by pack ice in polar waters very quickly during blizzards. Pack ice moves around with wind conditions, and it is not uncommon for ships to become temporarily locked in the ice even during peak summer conditions in Antarctica.

But Daniel Greenfield seems to think a ship trapped in Antarctic summer sea ice is a negation of global warming and the science involved in climate change. He is not alone...

Related: Oliver Millman: Five basic Antarctic facts for climate change sceptics | Giles Parkinson: Australia, 'hostage to climate change madness'? To say so is madness indeed

Ice Sheets and Sea level: what the past tells us is likely.

Watch this informative video By Peter Sinclair and the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media on ice sheet collapse and sea level rise and past climates.

"We are still potentially underestimating the instability of the ice sheets" informs Stefen Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the oceans from Postdam University. "The IPCC has greatly revised it's estimates of how unstable the Greenland ice sheet was"

Dr Richard Alley in a graph illuminates that on current CO2 levels we can expect sea level rise to impact 10 per cent of the Earth's population, hundreds of millions of people. He says in the video that "Greenland is very tightly tied to temperature, and if it gets too hot, it goes away".

Southern Ozone Hole Resurgent

After two years of a reduced ozone hole over the Antarctic largely due to statospheric turbulence, the Ozone Hole is resurgent this year almost matching its record size in 2000. Southern Hemisphere peoples, particularly children, have been warned to take care outside with increased exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Changes in UV radiation can be expected from a smaller ozone hole which forms above the arctic region. There are important connections between ozone depletion and climate change.

Ozone destruction by manufactured chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromine- containing halons has been studied since the early 1980s, which led to the Montreal Protocol in 1987 - which started phasing out use of chemicals which destroy the ozone layer. Recent evidence indicates that ozone depletion may be slowing , which is attributed to the success of the Montreal Treaty. This treaty is currently under attack by US President Bush demanding exemptions for the USA to maintain use of the ozone destroying pesticide, methyl bromide.

Melbourne IMC Feature
Green Nature
Methyl Bromide Campaign

As one of the editors of the global Indymedia site this article was Originally posted at: https://indymedia.org/pt/2003/11/109937.shtml at 11 Nov 2003 11:16 GMT