Earth's hottest 12 month period with most of the temperature increase due to burning fossil fuels

Analysis by climate scientists at Climate Central has highlighted we have just gone through the hottest 12 month period in recorded history (November 2022-October 2023), with an average global  temperature of 1.3C above pre-industrial temperatures.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) also reported that 2023 is on track to become the warmest year after record October. They report that October 2023 was 1.7°C above the average for 1850-1900, designated as the pre-industrial reference period. October marked the fifth consecutive month of record temperatures globally.

"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated. We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43°C above the preindustrial average. The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher," said Samantha Burgess, C3S’ Deputy Director.

Climate signals: June 2023 heat records. We have a climate emergency

Have you been watching earth's vital signs recently. I have. They are very concerning. But minimal mainstream reporting of all the signals and temperature records being broken.

Jeff Berardelli, Florida based WFLA News Channel 8’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist described the situation:

"In my 3 decade-long career being a weather forecaster, and now Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist, I have never observed so many of Earth’s vital signs blinking red. Meteorologists and climate scientists all around the world are in awe by the simultaneous literal “off the charts” records being broken. Yes, it’s climate change."

Let us start with this twitter thread by Assaad Razzouk (@AssaadRazzouk)

2016 hottest year on record globally, 4th warmest for Australia

This article by John Englart was first published at Climate Action Moreland.

The official reports are in. 2016 was the hottest year on record according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology declared 2016 the 4th warmest on record, but with record sea surface temperatures around the continent.

Australia's record Autumn temperatures: 1.86C temperature anomaly

The latest Climate Council report has outlined that Australia has set new record temperatures for Autumn 2016. This is to be expected given the strong El Nino this year, but it comes on escalating yearly global average temperatures from climate change.

According to the Climate Council report, Australia experienced its warmest March, second warmest April and second warmest May on record.

The Bureau of Meteorology said that autumn 2016 is the warmest autumn on record for Australia with the mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.86 °C - the largest anomaly for any season since spring 2014 when it was 1.67 °C. They argue that while El Niño and other climate drivers were a factor in warmer temperatures, "it is the background trend which now largely explains the more frequent high temperature records."

Balmy Sea Surface Temperatures off south east Australia

It is not only warm temperatures over land that have been abnormally high. Sea Surface Temperatures of eastern and south eastern Australian coast have also been above average for this time of year.

The ENSO wrap up from the BOM for February describes:
"The SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly map for February 2016 shows warm SST anomalies extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Compared to January, warm anomalies have decreased along the equator, but have increased to the east of Australia and near the South American coast."

For the week ending 13 March 2016 it describes:
"Warm anomalies continue to surround most of the Australian continent, with large regions greater than +1 °C to the north and south. Strong anomalies occur near Tasmania, with values of +2 °C surrounding much of the island. Warm anomalies continue to cover much of the Indian Ocean."

Taking the earth's temperature and the influence of ocean sea surface temperature cycles

I had a go at charting the global mean temperature trend. An interesting thing to do as it gives you an insight into all those global mean temperature graphs you see.

I started off with the GISS temperature anomaly dataset that goes from 1880 up to the present. The temperature anomaly data is provided in monthly intervals based upon a 1951-1980 baseline of 14.0 deg-C, but I really only used the data from 1970 to the present.

Using monthly data you see the extremes that sometimes occurr, both on the warm side and the cold side. I added a 12 month running average trend line (red) and a 5 year running average trendline (dark blue) to make the temperature trend clearer.

Here is the result:

Jellyfish and #climate change: Abbott's CSIRO budget cuts halt Queensland marine stinger forecasting research

Jellyfish, jellyfish. I hope you love jellyfish! We are creating just the right conditions in our oceans for more jellyfish, including the deadly species of Box jellyfish and Irukandji. We are changing our marine environment giving an advantage to jellyfish over the fish we love to catch and eat, and also giving jellyfish a chance to roam further with warming sea surface temperatures due to climate change.

Some of those jellyfish are also very venomous and can deliver lethal stings requiring emergency treatment and hospitalisation that cost our health system and the reputation of our tourism industry. Australian marine scientists have developed a proto-type method for Northern Queensland for forecasting peak times for marine stingers, especially the deadly Irukandji species. But the Abbott Government budget cuts to CSIRO funding in 2014 have brought this research to a stand-still. The reduced funding and employment in marine science comes just as these venomous jellyfish are also spreading their range with warming seas creating a wider Australian, and indeed global health problem.

Jellyfish population blooms are trending upwards (Brotz et al 2012), an indicator of marine ecosystems out of balance due to oceans changing much more rapidly due to human influences over the last century.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures affect Antarctic climate change

A new source of warming has been found for Antarctica: the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Warm waters in the Pacific have been connected to warming in Antarctica, but this is the first time that a connection with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures has been made.

"Our findings reveal a previously unknown--and surprising--force behind climate change that is occurring deep in our southern hemisphere: the Atlantic Ocean," says Xichen Li, a doctoral student in NYU's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the study's lead author. "Moreover, the study offers further confirmation that warming in one region can have far-reaching effects in another."

Global warming in recent decades has caused dramatic warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Changes in Antarctic climate have been attributed to greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone hole , sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific warming (Qinghua Ding et al 2011) and the impact of El Nino.

Warming may spike when Pacific Decadal Oscillation moves to a positive phase

We are currently in a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a cycle with phases that can last between 15 to 30 years. During a negative phase waters are cooler and heat mixes into deeper levels of the north Pacific ocean. When the next phase change ocurrs to a positive PDO we are likely to see some of the stored ocean heat released spiking atmospheric temperatures.

The Pacific Decadal oscillation was only identified by scientists in the 1990s, and we only have accurate observational data for identifying it going back some 50-60 years. Nathan J Mantua and SR Hare from the University of Washington in Seattle described the operation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Journal of Oceanography in 2002 (Mantua & Hare 2002 PDF). Read more about the PDO from the Climate Impacts Group from University of Washington.

Global Warming imperils coral reefs: 2 degrees warming is too hot say scientists

Increasing sea surface temperatures are imperilling coral reef ecosystems say scientists. A new scientific paper with extensive modelling reveals that atmospheric warming of 2 degrees celsius is too much for nearly all the world's coral reef ecosystems. They argue that to preserve greater than 10 per cent of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C. This equates to the goal of reducing carbon in the atmosphere to 350ppm, rather than a 2 degree rise or 450ppm that the UN Framwework Convention on Climate Change has adopted as the safe limit at several meetings. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 currently stands at 392.41ppm.

Arctic warming at more than double the global warming average

A new scientific study warns that the Arctic is warming at up to four times faster than the global average, due to the combination of melting sea ice and global atmospheric warming.

See also: July 2011 - Warming Arctic air temperatures causing less snow, more rain, faster ice melt | Jan 2011 - Albedo Feedback: Climate Models under estimate loss of reflectivity in the Arctic

Sea Surface Temperatures around Australia remain elevated, La Niña builds slowly

The Sea Surface temperature Anomaly around Australia in November 2011 remains elevated. A slow cooling in the tropical mid Pacific indicates that La Niña is also slowly building. A persistently warm Indian Ocean is also a main driver for forecast wetter conditions in Australia this summer.

Sea Surface temperatures continue to climb around Australia

According to the The Bureau of Meteorology in the annual climate statement for 2010 released on January 5, 2010:

Based on preliminary data (to November 30), sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were +0.54 °C above the 1961 to 1990 average. This is the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October and November. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring. The most recent decade (2001−2010) was also the warmest decade on record for sea surface temperatures following the pattern observed over land.

According to the European Environment Agency "Global sea surface temperature is approximately 1 degree C higher now than 140 years ago, and is one of the primary physical impacts of climate change."