Cryosphere in peril: Calls by Scientists, President of Chile, Prime Minister of Iceland, UN Chief to phase out Fossil Fuels at COP28

Before attending COP28 in Dubai, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres did a flying vist to Antarctica with Gabriel Boric, President of Chile, to see and talk with polar scientists on the changes to the Cryosphere and Antarctica in particular.

 "What happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica. " Guterres said.

"Without changing course, we’re heading towards a calamitous three-degree Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century. That means losing the West Antarctica Ice Sheet almost entirely. This alone could ultimately push up sea levels by around five meters." said the UN Chief.

The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative published its latest State of the Cryosphere report 2023 on 16 November 2023, outlining in 6 detailed chapters covering the changes and impacts of Ice Sheets, Mountain Glaciers and Snow, Sea Ice, Permafrost and Polar Oceans. The report included a forward by the President of Chile and Prime Minister of Iceland calling for a phaseout of fossil fuels to limit damages to the cryosphere, and consideration of the issue in the Global Stocktake at COP28. 

Climate Signals: Record global daily temperatures, Sea Surface temperatures, and Antarctic sea ice extent decline

Across the globe we are seeing incredible anomalies in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice extent decline.

Record global daily temperatures in July

"23rd day of record global temperatures, likely the hottest 23 days in the last 100,000+ years, making much of the planet unsafe for children and other living things." Professor Eliot Jacobson

Professor Wadhams: If we take really serious action we can survive

Professor Peter Wadhams has spent the last 40 years working on sea-ice research, polar oceanography and how the changes in Arctic and Antarctic ice are affecting climate. He has particularly warned about the impacts of the retreat and loss of Arctic sea-ice and the threat from an Arctic methane breakout to give a substantial acceleration to global warming.

In this May 2015 interview with Judy Sole, founder of the Green Party of South Africa, he outlines the reduction of Arctic sea ice, the loss of most of the multi-year ice, where he thinks more research should be devoted and what we should do for a best chance of survival for our children.

Wadhams is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge. He is also president of the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans Commission on Sea Ice and Coordinator for the International Programme for Antarctic Buoys.

He is one of the few scientists who has been prepared to publicly speak out on major climate risks associated with loss of sea-ice and the dangers in massive methane release from methane hydrates contained in the shallow continental shelves of the Arctic, and what this means for human survival. His warnings, along with those of James Hansen and Kevin Anderson should not be ignored.

Age profile of Arctic Sea Ice Change: 1987 to 2014

Arctic sea ice has been on a long downwards trend and this is projected to continue.

There are various ways to measure sea ice.

Sea Ice extent gives you the area of ice that varies between Summer and winter peaks. It is on a long downward trend. It is relatively easy to measure by satellite remote sensing.



Ice volume is a much better measure of sea ice, but it is notoriously difficult to estimate with accuracy, involving people doing actual thickness measurements which involves travel by helicopter or submarine and then estimation.



The relative age of sea ice in the Arctic, and the extent of different aged sea ice, provides an intermediary method for gauging the state of sea ice. This can be done through remote sensing, although it is not without it's own measurement problems and level of inaccuracy.

NASA has now produced this 1 minute video showing that old ice is now exceedingly rare. This affects the thickness of ice and the susceptibility to melting with summer. The animation tracks the various levels of different aged ice from 1987 to November 2014.

Each winter most of the Arctic sea freezes over and forms new ice. As winter recedes, sea ice melts and some gets pushed through the Fram Strait. This ice loss used to be replaced by new sea ice formed in the Beaufort Gyre, northeast of Alaska. But this century with warmer waters near Alaska less ice has been able to form to replace that lost through the Fram Strait. Old ice 9 years or more is now exceedingly rare.

"While perennial ice increased between 2013 and 2014, the long-term trend continues to be downward, the Report Card authors stated. In 1980s, the oldest ice (fourth-year ice and older) comprised 26 percent of the ice pack; as of March 2014, it was 10%. And as the animation above shows, very old ice (say, 7-8 years or older) has become even more rare." says the NASA article.

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Source:

• Climate.gov, 20 January 2015 - Old ice in Arctic vanishingly rare
  
• Polar Science Centre - PIOMASS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis
  
• National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Sea Ice Index - Dec 2014 Monthly Sea Ice Extent Anomaly Graph
  

The Paradox of Antarctic Sea Ice 2: Research vessel trapped by summer sea ice

I came across an article lambasting the Australian Antarctic Expedition scientists on board the MV Akademik Shokalskiy trapped by fast ice since Christmas Eve in the Commonwealth Bay region of Antarctica. Climate scientists and tourists are on board the vessel on the Spirit of Mawson voyage, retracing Sir Douglas Mawson's Antarctic expedition.

The ship found itself locked in thick ice after experiencing blizzard conditions which moved and piled up ice flows.

Ships can get trapped by pack ice in polar waters very quickly during blizzards. Pack ice moves around with wind conditions, and it is not uncommon for ships to become temporarily locked in the ice even during peak summer conditions in Antarctica.

But Daniel Greenfield seems to think a ship trapped in Antarctic summer sea ice is a negation of global warming and the science involved in climate change. He is not alone...

Related: Oliver Millman: Five basic Antarctic facts for climate change sceptics | Giles Parkinson: Australia, 'hostage to climate change madness'? To say so is madness indeed

Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral - Lord Monckton revealed as bad joke

Peter Sinclair has put together another educative video gem on the decline of Arctic Sea Ice, and indeed global sea ice. The video mixes together video footage of Lord Monckton from 2009, 2011, and 2013 to show his inconsistency, with the facts and observations from climate scientists on sea ice decline.

Climate scientists interviewed include Dr Walt Meier from the National Snow and Ice Data center, Dr Ken Dunton from University of Texas, Dr Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University, Dr Jeff Masters from the WeatherUnderground, Dr Claire Parkinson from the Goddard Space Flight Center NASA,

The video covers the recent and unusually extensive ice fractures seen in the Beaufort Sea from the beginning of February through March. This highlights that most of this sea ice is seasonal or first year ice. Sea ice extent continues to track well below model predictions for the disintegration of summer sea ice. Sea Ice volume trend is even more stark with a projection of a possible ice free summer as early as 2016.

Antarctic Paradox: ocean warming melting ice shelves causing sea ice expansion

Antarctic sea ice extent is a complex and puzzling beast, not following a simple process of rapid Arctic sea ice diminishment. A new paper in Nature Geoscience argues that warm deep ocean currents are contributing to ice shelf melt and causing Antarctic sea ice expansion. While ice mass loss from Antarctica is presently at 250 Gigatonnes per year and accelerating, sea ice is also expanding slowly but to record levels. What a paradox!

The trend for a gradual increase in Antarctic Sea ice has puzzled scientists for some time. The expansion is at odds with general climate model results. I reported on the puzzle of Record Antarctic Sea Ice Growth in November 2012. In that article I explained that (Holland et al 2012) argued that atmospheric variability in the form of local winds was pushing the ice northwards creating space for new sea ice to form. While climate deniers claimed record Antarctic sea-ice was a refutation of climate change, in reality it showed they could not fathom that the cryosphere and the planet's climate are complex processes which we are still trying to understand, with some surprising processees not readily open to be modelled.

Sea ice reduction disturbs Arctic greenhouse gas balance

The diminishing Arctic sea-ice extent is resulting in changes in how greenhouse gases interact between the land, ocean and atmosphere according to a new study.

"Changes in the balance of greenhouse gases can have major consequences because, globally, plants and the oceans absorb around half of the carbon dioxide that humans release into the air through the use of fossil fuels. If the Arctic component of this buffer changes, so will the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere", says Dr Frans-Jan Parmentier, a researcher at Lund University, Sweden, and lead author of the study..

Reduced white sea ice and expanded dark ocean surface results in a change to the surface albedo feedback or reflectivity, resulting in increased light absorption and ocean warming which then warms the atmosphere affecting the rate of interchange of CO2.

The decline of summer sea ice has been dramatic with the Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent Minimum record smashed in 2012.

Climate Feedback: Arctic sea ice changes increase light absorption and ocean warming

A new study has examined the impact of changing sea ice and light absorption in the Arctic to reveal another climate feedback mechanism.

As multi-year sea ice is replaced with thinner first year sea ice, the properties of the sea ice change to allow more light through to the water beneath increasing ocean warming and more melting of sea ice.

Global warming breaking records in Arctic says 2012 Report card

Records were broken in the Arctic during 2012 with rapid changes occurring in sea ice extent and surface melt of Greenland Ice sheet according to the latest Arctic Report Card. These changes happened despite air temperatures being fairly unremarkable. It was the warmest summer in the last 170 years on Greenland.

“The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, during a press briefing at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, Calif. “The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation.”

Study: Winds driving Record Antarctic Sea ice growth, global sea ice extent still declining

While the Arctic sea-ice has experienced a dramatic reduction, Antarctic sea ice continues to increase in extent hitting a new record in October this year. So what's going on?

The trend for a gradual increase in Antarctic Sea ice has puzzled scientists. Firstly, the gradual increase in Antarctic sea ice is far less than the amount of sea ice vanishing in the Arctic Sea. Global sea ice trend still shows a marked retreat.

But in the Antarctic working out why the sea ice trend has seen a one percent increase per decade since the 1970s has bamboozled the scientists. A new study based upon 18 years of detailed satellite ice motion measurements has put forward that it is primarily local winds pushing ice mainly north creating polyanas in the ice flows where more ice can easily form.

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent Minimum record smashed in 2012

Arctic summer sea ice is at a new record low level since satellite measurements began recording data in 1979. The summer minimum is down to about 1.32 million square miles (3.41 million square kilometers), half the average summer ice between 1979 and 2000. The minimum record was last set in 2007 with this year's sea-ice extent being about 18% lower than 2007. Some scientists predict we may see summer sea ice vanish by 2015-16, well ahead of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Report predictions.

"The polar meltdown shows we're teetering on the brink of climate-change catastrophe," said Shaye Wolf, climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity's Climate Law Institute. "Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating the planet's climate. As man-made global warming shrinks the ice, our risk of droughts and other extreme weather goes up. We can't wait any longer to cut carbon pollution."

See also: Arctic sea ice Extent drops to lowest on record and still shrinking | Arctic warming at more than double the global warming average | Sea ice volume: Multi-year arctic sea ice reducing dramatically | Radio Ecoshock: ARCTIC MELT DOWN Scientists Speak Out | Climate Code Red: How British government's climate forecasting MET Office gets the Arctic wrong

Arctic sea ice Extent drops to lowest on record and still shrinking

On August 26 it was announced that arctic sea ice extent this summer has dropped to it's lowest level ever recorded, surpassing the previous record in 2007. And summer sea ice melt still has further to go this season with ice extent usually reaching a minimum area in mid September.

"This is a profound — and profoundly depressing — moment in the history of our planet," said Shaye Wolf, climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute. "The sea-ice death spiral, coming during one of the warmest summers in American history, is just one more clear sign of the deepening climate crisis that we ignore at our own peril."

Related: Sea ice volume: Multi-year arctic sea ice reducing dramatically | Climate Code Red Blog: Big call: Cambridge prof. predicts Arctic summer sea ice "all gone by 2015"

Arctic warming at more than double the global warming average

A new scientific study warns that the Arctic is warming at up to four times faster than the global average, due to the combination of melting sea ice and global atmospheric warming.

See also: July 2011 - Warming Arctic air temperatures causing less snow, more rain, faster ice melt | Jan 2011 - Albedo Feedback: Climate Models under estimate loss of reflectivity in the Arctic

Sea ice volume: Multi-year arctic sea ice reducing dramatically

A new study has noted a substantial decadal decline in the Arctic Multiyear ice cover. While ice extent has been shrinking, much of this is seasonal ice that reforms each winter and can grow with variable weather factors such as changes in temperature, wind, weather and ocean currents. A reduction in the thicker multiyear ice indicates a much greater impact and collapse of sea ice is evident.

2011 hottest year globally with a La Niña event, 10th warmest on record

2011 is likely to be the world's tenth warmest year on record. This is despite a particularly strong La Niña which usually acts to dampen global temperatures, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO has released its summary and status of the global climate and weather for 2011 at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change talks taking place in Durban South Africa.

"Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2 to 2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

Global Warming in Antarctica: Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers accelerating, West Antarctic Ice Sheet losing mass

Scientists have been studying the climate change impacts on ice shelfs and glaciers for some time in Antarctica, and particularly around the Antarctic Peninsula where there is substantial warming occurring increasing ice shelf melt and the speed and discharge of glaciers. The most recent studies predict a faster retreat for the Thwaites Glacier and that warm ocean currents are already speeding the melting of the Pine Island Glacier and Ice Shelf and Getz Ice Shelf. A NASA Icebridge flight detected a major new rift in the Pine Island ice shelf on October 14 - the start of the calving of a massive iceberg. A recent paper in Nature Geoscience discusses the Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world and the likelihood of collapse that would raise sea level by more than three metres over the course of several centuries or less.

Related: The Wilkins ice Bridge collapsed in April 2009 as Polar regions felt the heat of climate change. I reported as far back as 2004 that warming in Antarctica was cause for concern with ocean food chain crashing due to Antarctic warming. More recently in April 2011 I discussed Penguin numbers suffering with krill decline due to Global Warming.

Warming Arctic air temperatures causing less snow, more rain, faster ice melt

Arctic air temperatures are warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Although the level of precipitation is remaining unchanged, there is reduced snowfall in summer which is being replaced by increasing rain. The loss of summer snow and increase in rain is resulting in a positive feedback mechanism increasing warming and melting of the Arctic ice.

We are already witnessing an increase in the Albedo feedback mechanism - loss of reflectivity in the arctic leading to more warming and greater ice melt. Research published early in 2011 revealed Loss of reflectivity in the Arctic is double the estimate used in climate models. With the change in precipitation we have a further feedback mechanism contributing to Arctic warming and melting of snow and sea ice.

Penguin numbers suffering with krill decline due to Global Warming

A new study of declining penguin populations shows a strong correlation between penguin numbers and krill availability. Krill availability is affected by reduced sea ice conditions due to global warming and climate change.

"For penguins and other species, krill is the linchpin in the food web. Regardless of their environmental preferences, we see a connection between climate change and penguin populations through the loss of habitat for their main food source," said Dr. Wayne Trivelpiece, lead author and seabird researcher of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division. "As warming continues, the loss of krill will have a profound effect throughout the Antarctic ecosystem."

Related: On the brink: Penguins face an uncertain climate future (Oct 2010)

Arctic Sea Ice extent winter maximum continues sea ice decline

Arctic sea ice extent has just passed it's maximum - estimated to be March 7 this year. Only this year it has tied with 2006-2007 as the lowest on record according to satellite records that began in 1979.

The seven lowest maximum Arctic sea ice extents measured by satellites all have occurred in the last seven years, according to Colorado University-Boulder Research Scientist Walt Meier from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "I'm not surprised by the new data because we've seen a downward trend in winter sea ice extent for some time now." he said.