Coral, climate change, storm surges and #CycloneDebbie

Article originally published at nofibs.com.au

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross Central Queensland coast on Tuesday morning as a Category 4 Severe tropical cyclone. It will bring destructive winds greater than 200km per hour plus a storm surge with a king tide innundating low lying coastal properties, and torrential rain causing flooding. It is also cooling sections of the Great Barrier Reef reducing coral bleaching from an extensive and long lasting marine heatwave.

Update: 25,000 people in Mackay ordered to evacuate due to storm surge threat.
Update: Coal mines and coal ports affected.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie draws heat from the unusually warm waters of the Coral Sea. This will help it increase in intensity to achieve possibly Category 4, and an outside chance as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone before it strikes land.

It is the first tropical cyclone to strike the north Queensland coast since Cyclone Nathan in March 2015. Although it may not be as strong, it is being compared in size and extent to the Category 5 cyclone Yasi from 2011.

Great Barrier Reef facing back to back coral bleaching from elevated sea surface temperatures

Record sea surface temperatures in the coral sea are again threatening massive coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef for the second year in a row. If sea surface temperatures don't cool in the next few weeks, this will be the first time there has been back to back bleaching on this scale.

“In the last week, divers and scientists have reported bleached corals on popular tourist reefs around Cairns and on reefs near Townsville.” said Imogen Zethoven Australian Marine Conservation Society Great Barrier Reef Campaign Director.

Vast swathes of the Great Barrier Reef have also been placed on red alert (Alert Level 1) for the next four weeks, as an indicator that coral bleaching is likely. Parts of the Far Northern, Northern and Central Reef are on the even higher Alert Level 2, indicating mortality is likely.

Corals south of Cairns, in the Whitsundays and in parts of the Far Northern Reef, that were badly hit last year, are at mortal risk.

Shining a light in Melbourne on Reef not Coal

Originally posted at Climate Action Moreland

Last night I ventured to Federation Square. I had heard that Nemo and Dory were in town.

The Climate Guardian angels were also there poignantly making a statement with a piece of the redline ribbon from Paris COP21 last year. The redline derives from diplomatic symbolism for a boundary or limit which should not be crossed. No new coal mines or other fossil fuels is one such boundary for a safe climate, backed up by research by McGlade and Ekins (2015) (See Unburnable carbon: why we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground). Two of the Angels present are from our Climate Action Moreland group.

Seems the East Australian current is warmer and going further south. The Tasman sea has warmed by over 2 degrees C in the last 70 years - it's a global sea surface temperature hotspot. That's climate change for you.

Love in the Time of Coral Reefs

A powerful song by singer songwriter Ruth Mundy - Love in the Time of Coral Reefs

Thank you Ruth. It made me cry, and it made me angry.

Human induced Ocean warming and ocean acidification have doomed coral reef ecosystems and the Great Barrier Reef.

AYCC #CoralnotCoal protest during Indian Finance Minister visit

The Indian Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, was in Australia for 4 days trying to wrangle investment money for infrastructure projects India, but also potentially including the the giant Adani Carmichael coal mine in the Galilee Basin of Queensland. Read the original article at nofibs.com.au

It was reported in Indian media (1, 2) before Jaitley left India that he was meeting with Australian Finance Minister Matthias Cormann and the $120 billion sovereign wealth Future Fund Chairman Peter Costello, in regard to sourcing investment funding in Indian projects, possibly including Adani's Carmichael mine.

When asked in Sydney if he would discuss the issue of Adani's Carmichael coal mine project in Queensland with Australian leaders and investors he replied with "not really", then elaborated slightly, "This is a subject which is internal to Australia and this is not the purpose of my visit," he said, reported The Press Trust of India.

So Adani was not the purpose of the Minister's visit, but it wasn't a full rejection that the subjection may be discussed either.

Massive coral bleaching on Great Barrier Reef while Environment Minister applies bandaid funding

There have been many reports of extensive coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. Here are the sea surface temperature anomaly for the 14 day period to 1st March 2016, as provided by BOM's Reeftemp application. Unusual and extensive ocean warming has extended down the eastern Australian coast.



Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Tyrone Ridgway in an article at The Conversation identify that "The bleaching is currently focused on the pristine reefs north of Cooktown, driven by water temperatures that have persisted at 1.0-1.5℃ above seasonal averages since mid to late January 2016, and calm and still weather conditions over recent weeks."

Coral reef ecosystems acidifying 3 times faster than open ocean

New research shows that the rate of ocean acidification in coral reef ecosystems is more than three times faster than in the open ocean, much more than previously thought. This has big implications for reef ecosystems around the globe suffering under multiple stressers of increased sea surface temperatures, nutrient and other pollution and commercial fishing pressures.

Biogeochemist researchers from Southern Cross University Led by recent graduate Dr Tyler Cyronak detailed this new insight in a study published in Geophysical Research Letters titled Enhanced coral reef acidification driven by regional biogeochemical feedbacks.

Ocean acidification is well documented in open waters. Cold waters like in the southern ocean can more readily absorb carbon dioxide, so ocean acidification was thought to be proceeding more rapidly in marine ecosystems in cooler waters (see my 2007 article: Scientists say Ocean Acidity Increasing at Faster Rate)

This new research highlights that coral reef waters are also rapidly acidifying. This research examined studies done in coral reefs since the 1960s and found that the rate of acidification in coral reef ecosystems was more than three times faster than in the open ocean.

Marine heatwaves continue decimating corals in the Pilbara

Marine heatwaves are having a marked impact on coral reef systems off the Pilbara coast. A CSIRO and University of Western Australia study in progress found bleaching and decimation of ancient porite corals - many up to 400 years old - in a recent visit to Barrow Island. The oceans around Australia were unusually warm in 2013. Globally the deep oceans are also continuing to warm.

“We suspect this bleaching event was due to marine heatwaves that occurred in the region over the past few summers, and to see it up close was sobering,” said Dr Russ Babcock, CSIRO lead scientist, “But to offset this loss, some reefs only a short distance north showed much less damage and will continue to contribute to a healthy ecosystem."

A marine heatwave extreme bleaching event ocurred in 2011 that was widely spread along the Western Australian coast. Preliminary results from the study show that further damage was done in the 2012-2013 summer with elevated water temperatures.

ExClimate: Experiment shows coral reefs in peril in a high CO2 world

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg takes us through and explains a controlled experiment his Institute is conducting in coral reef ecosystem reaction to various temperature and carbon dioxide environments.

Hoegh-Guldberg is Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland and an important authority on tropical marine biology, coral reef ecosystems and climate change.

He argues that Coral Reef ecosystems have already changed significantly from pre-industrial times, and will change even further as human carbon emissions increase in the atmosphere with many species likely to be pushed to extinction due to heat stress and ocean acidification from anthropogenic climate change.

Warming may spike when Pacific Decadal Oscillation moves to a positive phase

We are currently in a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a cycle with phases that can last between 15 to 30 years. During a negative phase waters are cooler and heat mixes into deeper levels of the north Pacific ocean. When the next phase change ocurrs to a positive PDO we are likely to see some of the stored ocean heat released spiking atmospheric temperatures.

The Pacific Decadal oscillation was only identified by scientists in the 1990s, and we only have accurate observational data for identifying it going back some 50-60 years. Nathan J Mantua and SR Hare from the University of Washington in Seattle described the operation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Journal of Oceanography in 2002 (Mantua & Hare 2002 PDF). Read more about the PDO from the Climate Impacts Group from University of Washington.

China's coral reef ecosystems suffer devastating 80 per cent decline

In the last 30 years the coral reef ecosystems off the coast of mainland China and Hainan Island have suffered an 80 per cent decline largely due to unrestrained economic development driving coastal development, pollution and overfishing.

The study, published in the journal Conservation Biology - The Wicked Problem of China's Disappearing Coral Reefs - was conducted jointly by scientists from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and James Cook University, and from the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"A wicked problem is one that is very hard to solve without having a whole lot of other foreseen and unforeseen consequences to people, industries and to the environment itself," said lead author Professor Terry Hughes.

Guest Post: Calls for climate action as Great Barrier Reef suffers major coral loss

By Charis Palmer, The Conversation

The Great Barrier Reef has lost half its coral cover in the last 27 years, and it could halve again by 2022 say researchers from the Australian Institute of Marine Science.
A study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found storm damage drove 48% of the loss, the crown of thorns starfish 42%, and bleaching 10%.

Global Warming imperils coral reefs: 2 degrees warming is too hot say scientists

Increasing sea surface temperatures are imperilling coral reef ecosystems say scientists. A new scientific paper with extensive modelling reveals that atmospheric warming of 2 degrees celsius is too much for nearly all the world's coral reef ecosystems. They argue that to preserve greater than 10 per cent of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C. This equates to the goal of reducing carbon in the atmosphere to 350ppm, rather than a 2 degree rise or 450ppm that the UN Framwework Convention on Climate Change has adopted as the safe limit at several meetings. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 currently stands at 392.41ppm.

Queensland climate becoming more extreme according to coral reef record

The Queensland climate is becoming more extreme with more frequent rain and drought events since the nineteenth century according to research on coral reef cores published in the scientific journal, Paleoceanography by Dr Janice Lough from the Australian Institute of Marine Science in April 2011.

Sigourney Weaver highlights threat from Ocean Acidification in Video Documentary

Just finished watching The Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification short documentary on Ocean Acidification produced by the US based Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). It explains the issue and connection with global warming and climate change - but a little too simply for my preference - but the videography and production is excellent. 21:35 long. The actress Sigourney Weaver does the narration in this doco. For something a bit more in depth see marine chemist Dr Andrew Dickson from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography (56 min) presentation near the end of this article.

Marine Extinction looms with Ocean Acidification increasing

Scientiists from Bristol University say that ocean acidification is ocurring at a faster pace than anytime in the last 65 million years, raising the possibility of a mass marine extinction event similar to what ocurred about 55 million years ago.

Related: Dr Jeremy Mathis on CO2 acidification threatens northern oceans - (KFSK Public radio audio) | European Project on Ocean Acidification Blog | The Ocean in a High CO2 World

Queensland Climate Change Minister spins Climate Destruction of Great Barrier Reef

In December Kate Jones, the Queensland Climate Change Minister, stated "Queenslanders are by per capita the highest emitters of carbon in the world." and said the Queensland Government was "committed to world action on climate change." Spoken at the Copenhagen climate talks on December 15, they illuminate the greenwashing, spin and hypocrisy that our politicians are engaging in.

"We as a State are already taking action. We are home to the world's largest reef, the Great Barrier Reef, and that is why we are committing here today to reduce runoff into the reef by 50% in four years." she stated to the crowd of climate bureaucrats and fellow politicians.

Bradley Smith from Friends of the Earth Brisbane said that "If the Queensland government were serious about protecting the Great Barrier reef, they wouldn't be expanding the coal industry. Without deep and urgent emissions reductions, reducing runoff to the Great Barrier Reef is like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic."

Scientist: Extinction threatens Coral Reefs unless CO2 limited to 350ppm

COPENHAGEN. Dec 9, 2009. Extinction of Coral reefs and 10-20% of marine species is likely if greehouse gases aren't brought down to 350ppm, warned Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg from the University of Queensland. He gave a presentation at the US Pavilion at the COP15 climate negotiations in Copenhagen about the threat of climate change to the world's coral reefs. Over 500 million people living in approximately 90 nations are dependant in some way on coral reefs.

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg was a contributing author to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007, which shared the Nobel Prize with Al Gore.

Scientists call for emissions slashed to save Great Barrier Reef

Marine and climate scientists have called for at least a 25% cut in carbon emissions from developed countries like Australia to save the Great Barrier Reef. A 25% cut in emissions would amount to peaking at less than 450ppm atmospheric CO2 and a 50/50 chance of staying below 2 degrees Centigrade. And by 2050, emissions would have to decline by up to 90 percent below 2000 levels. Even with this scenario tropical reefs may be substantially degraded.

Related: Marine Scientists report: Ocean Acidification Accelerating; Severe Damages Imminent | Coral Reefs and Ocean Biodiversity threatened by Climate Change | Climate Change: Marine Scientists Demand Action on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Coral Reefs and Ocean Biodiversity threatened by Climate Change

Australian marine scientists have issued a warning on the increasing acidity of the world's oceans and its impact on coral reefs, and through the food web, the productivity and biodiversity of oceans. There has been an unprecedented decline in coral growth since 1990 caused by a combination of rising sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification. At the current rate of decline, coral will be unable to grow by 2050, scientists warn.