Emissions Gap Report 2024: we are out of time, teetering on the edge of climate disaster

This is the fifteenth annual report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the Emissions Gap. The warning is clear in 2024 that not enough is being done to reduce emissions which will result in catastrophic impacts down the line. Key take aways from the report:

• It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today
• Continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C
• Current commitments for 2030 are not being met; even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C

What needs to be done?

Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in February 2025 – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years. 

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Emissions dangerously increasing and heading for 2.9 degrees C global warming on current policies

This is the 14th Emissions Gap Report. It is published ahead of the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28).  Definitely a broken record with the United Nations and scientists continually warning of the emissions gap between national policies, pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions- NDCs) and what the science says the targets we need to achieve in reducing emissions.

The report's main highlights are:

• Predicted 2030 emissions must fall by 28-42 per cent for pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C 
• Relentless mitigation and low-carbon transformations essential to narrow emissions gap 
• COP28 and Global Stocktake provide an oportunity to build greater ambition for next round of climate pledges 

UN Secretary General called the emissions gap "more like an emissions canyon.  A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records.  All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity."

Until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever according to the WMO, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.  In a record first, 2 days during November exceeded 2.0C of warming based on Global average temperatures reported by .Copernicus ECMWF.

The report finds that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022.

Guest Post: Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows

Shuttestock

Pep Canadell, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter; Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, and Rob Jackson, Stanford University

Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, our analysis released today has found.

The troubling finding comes as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.

The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s sharp drop, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050.

UNEP Emissions Gap: planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020

The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C. 

Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target. 

Australia also falling short on our fair share of climate finance.

On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge: 

"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C." 

UN Emissions Gap report says 7.6% emissions reduction per year required to meet 1.5C Climate Target, Australia marked as a climate laggard

Global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by 7.6 per cent each year between 2020 and 2030 or the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, warns the latest UN Environment Emissions Gap report. It is clear we have a global climate emergency.

If current committed actions are all undertaken, the world is on target to heat at least 3.2C degrees by 2100 warns the report.

G20 nations account for 78 per cent of all emissions, but 15 G20 members, including Australia, have not committed to a timeline for net-zero emissions.

At the moment Australian total emissions are currently rising, and projected to keep rising past 2030. This is unsustainable. Australia proposes to keep current low targets and no substantial ambition coming into the UN climate conference COP25 in Madrid this December. Indeed, the Australian Government want to negotiate a 'deal' to use an accounting trick to halve our already low 2030 Paris Agreement Target, by arguing Kyoto Protocol credits can be used to meet Paris Agreemnet targets. No other country is proposing similar use of these credits. They are two spearate agreements.

The Australian Government is sending Energy and Emissions reduction Minister Angus Taylor to attempt to bluster a deal for Australia. His overtures are likely to be rebuffed by the global community, especially given the UN Environment emissions Gap report which advises ALL countries need to be reducing emissions, but especially the industrialised nations like Australia.