Is Australia prepared for a wildfire emergency in 2023 summer?

Queensland Fire incidents map Sat 19 August 11am

Early Fire season started this weekend in SE Queensland. Warmer temperatures with climate change is driving earlier fire seasons, more intense fire weather.

This fire season in Queensland is one month earlier start than the 2019-2020 bushfire season.

Key Points:
BOM says conditions ripe for high fire danger
Meteorologists warn people must take precautions
Australia's worst recorded bushfire season of 2019-2020 sparked on Queensland's Granite Belt in Sep 2019, burnt for months.

According to the Buraeu of Meteorology fire danger for the following regions were rated high on Friday: Capricornia, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast. All other regions were rated as moderate fire danger.

After all the flooding rains we still face elevated bushfire risk for Summer 2022

You might think after the deluge of rain and flood events his year that fire risk would be low this summer.

You would be wrong.

All the rains and floods have contributed to vegetation growth adding to fuel load. When this fuel dries out with summer heat, it makes it susceptible to wildfire.

We are more likely to see grassfires this season than forest fires. But they can be equally deadly.

Survivors tell stories of Climate driven mega-fires at COP26 and call for urgent climate action

Wildfire survivors press conference

The fires are growing more intense, burning far greater areas than we have previously experienced. Climate change factors are pushing widfires to become mega-fires. Fires that are near impossible to effectively control. Forest systems that have rarely if ever, seen fire, are now burning.

Bushfires sirvivors from Australia, Canada, USA and Turkey held a press conference outside the Australian Pavilion at #COP26 on Monday, where they shared their stories of heartbreak and loss.

Those who lost everything in the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires in Australia, and then the fires that followed in California, Turkey and Canada, know exactly what’s at stake. 

The Climate Council pulled together these people to share their stories outside the Australian Pavillion.  All the participants called for world leaders and decision makers at COP26 to commit to strong emission reductions this decade.

Otherwise, we risk experiencing Black Summer, after Black Summer, after Black Summer.

Australian bushfires so intense smoke crosses the Pacific to South America

The extent of Australia's November Bushfires are massive, and the smoke cloud has gone global.

NASA have tracked the smoke cloud lofted 12-13 kilometres into the atmosphere from the hundreds of fires along the east coast of Australia. This smoke has drifted across the Pacific and South America, and even been detected over the southern Atlantic.

The fires are all the more concerning given this is in Spring season in November, long before the major bushfire season expected during January-February. This is very far from normal.

Longer bushfire seasons driven by climate change warns Climate Council

Original article published at nofibs.com.au.

The Climate Council has warned that Australia faces increased bushfire risk, with bushfire seasons extending for longer due to the impact of climate change.

The warning comes after the United States and Canada have suffered one of their worst wildfire seasons on record. More than 8 million acres was burnt this year with seven of the top years having occurred since 2000.

The extension and overlapping of fire seasons in the northern and southern hemisphere poses problems as fire fighting resources and people are often shared and moved to accommodate the greatest risk.

But with seasons extending resources will be retained to fight fires locally. Australia has sent dozens of experienced firefighters to help combat more than 70 fires in the United States, but Australia's fire season is now starting earlier in October and extending later into March.

Tony Abbott in denial on bushfire climate change link

In a radio interview with Neil Mitchell, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that the Head of the UNFCCC, Christiana Figueres, is "talking through her hat" for connecting the NSW bushfires with climate change and that "these fires are certainly not a function of climate change, they are just a function of life in Australia."

It seems Mr Abbott is in denial on all the wildfire research done on the increase in fireweather and increase in frequency and intensity in bushfires both in Australia and globally.

Abbott articulated a list of major bushfire disasters in Australia as justification that climate change is not involved. Yet the science clearly shows the long term climate change trend for rising temperatures, with increasing frequency of heatwaves drying out forests and grasslands and driving reductions in humidity and soil moisture making extreme fireweather and bushfires more frequent and more intense.

Earlier this year just after the Tasmanian bushfires wiped out the town of Dunalley with people fleeing the inferno by boat, Prime Minister Julia Gillard linked the increasing frequency and intensity of bushfires generally to climate change conditions. At least she reads what climate scientists say on bushfires and climate change, unlike the present Prime Minister.

Related: Raging Bushfires surround Sydney with early start to Fire season | Mega bushfire feared as State of Emergency declared in NSW

Early start to Australian bushfires, record temperatures

Just a few days after the Federal election NSW experienced a surprisingly early start to the bushfire season with fires on Sydney's outskirts giving us a taste of things to come. Queensland is also facing severe fire danger with the early onset of high temperatures.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also issued a special climate statement saying that the last 12 months is Australia’s hottest 12 month period on record, and it's second warmest winter on record for maximum temperatures.

Wildfires set new destructive records in Colorado and New Mexico due to climate change

High temperatures, high winds and low humidity are contributing to extreme fire weather across the US southwest. In Colorado the Black Forest fire burning north east of Colorado Springs has become the most destructive fire on record for the state destroying at least 379 homes and killing two people. Over the border the Whitewater Baldy Complex fire in the Gila National Forest has become the largest wildfire in New Mexico's recorded history. For several years scientists have indicated that Climate change is a primary cause driving the increase in the length of the fire season, the frequency and intensity of wildfires.

Reports from Colorado confirm that the Black Forest fire has so far burned 15,700 acres; 38,000 people and 13,000 homes evacuated; with the fire only 5% contained. 379 homes have been destroyed and a further 9 damaged. The damage exceeds the record destruction last year from the Waldo Canyon Fire which destroyed nearly 350 homes and also killed two people. Another Colorado wildfire near Royal Gorge has burnt 3,100 acres, destrying 20 structures and is just 20% contained.

Over the border in New Mexico the Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. It is the largest wildfire in New Mexico's recorded history. Started by a lightning strike on May 15th 2013, the fire has burned almost 280,000 acres and is assessed as only 37% contained one month later in mid June. High temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds continue to feed the fire. Fire fighters are focussed on containing the southern boundary of the fire. Costs of fighting this blaze have now exceeded $22 million.

Climate change is driving the increased destruction of wildfires with US Forest Service Chief Thomas Tidwell warning of more extreme wild fires in testimony to the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee last week.

In 2012 wildfires burned a record 9.2 million acres in the U.S., with this year also likely to set exceptional fire records.

US Forest Service Chief warns of more extreme wild fires associated with climate change

Wild fires are getting bigger and burning with greater intensity with an extended fire season, due in large part to climate change, according to testimony this week of Thomas Tidwell, Head of the US Forest Service to the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

In his statement on Tuesday to the Senate Committee Tidwell said:

Around the world, the last two decades have seen fires that are extraordinary in their size, intensity and impacts. In Australia in 2009, the Black Saturday Bushfires killed 170 people. Domestically, Florida, Georgia, Utah, California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, have all experienced the largest and/or the most destructive fires in their history just in the last six years. On average wildfires burn twice as many acres each year as compared to 40 years ago, and there are on average seven times as many fires over 10,000 acres per year.

In 2012 over 9.3 million acres burned in the United States. The fires of 2012 were massive in size, with 51 fires exceeding 40,000 acres. Of these large fires, 14 exceeded 100,000 acres. The increase in large fires in the west coincides with an increase in temperatures and early snow melt in recent years. This means longer fire seasons. The length of the fire season has increased by over two months since the 1970s.

Records tumble in heatwave as Julia Gillard links bushfire to climate change

On Tuesday January 8 the Bureau of Meteorology released an interim special climate statement on the Extreme January heat Australia is currently experiencing. Record temperatures both day-time maximum and night-time minimums continue to be broken. The extraordinary heatwave has also been the scene for catastrophic fires, especially in Tasmania. The Prime Minister Julia Gillard saw the devastation in Dunalley and amoung her many interviews and press conferences made a brief statement connecting the intensity of bushfires with climate change.

The Extreme Heatwave had its origins in late December, but seriously started on January 3. It covers an extensive part of the continent mainly affecting inland areas but occasionally impacting the coast. Dr Braganza described it has "It's just an extensive dome of heat over the continent," in a Sydney Morning Herald report. Dr Karl Braganza is Manager of Climate Modelling at the Bureau of Meteorology.

The Bureau statement says the spatial extent of the heatwave is highly unusual resulting in many individual station temperatures and national average temperature records being broken, "To date (data up to the 6 January 2013) the national area-average for each of the first 6 days of 2013 has been in the top 20 hottest days on record, with 6 January the fifth hottest on record and the first time 5 consecutive days over 39 °C has ever been recorded for Australia." says the statement.

Read Previous article: Extreme Heatwave for Australia January 2013 - bushfire strikes.

Listen to Alasdair Hainsworth from the Bureau of Meteorology being interviewed on the ABC 7.30pm on 8 January 2013 (Youtube)

Here is the text of the BoM statement in full as updated by BOM on 14 January:

Extreme Heatwave for Australia January 2013 - bushfires strike

Note: article may be updated over coming days.

Jan 18: Sydney swelters setting new record temperature of 45.8C Friday 18 January while fires across southern states continue to burn out of control.

Jan 5: A heatwave covering 70 per cent of Australia that started on January 3 has sparked catastrophic bushfires. Tasmania has so far been the most devastated by fire with more than 100 houses and businesses razed, the Tasman peninsula cutoff, without power, and thousands evacuated by boat to Hobart. The Temperature soared in Hobart setting new records for highest daily minimum overnight temperature of 23.4C and a new maximum temperature of 41.3C.

Other states are also experiencing bushfires, but have so far brought the fires mostly under control. The heatwave is expected to last over a week with elevated temperatures particularly in inland areas. It is very unusual that a heat wave covers such a large area of the continent at one time, according to Karl Braganza, manager of climate monitoring at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Australia's weather has switched to hot and dry after one of the wettest two year periods in Australia's history influenced by an extremely strong La Nina event.

Related: Scientists outline health limits of heat stress with Climate Change (May 2010) | Flooding rains now burning plains - Bushfire risk and climate change (Oct 2011) | Logging of Victorian mountain ash forests increases bushfire risk (Oct 2011) | Intact native Forests mitigate bushfire in a warming climate (Nov 2011) | CSIRO - Climate change impacts on fire weather

Guest Post - Climate change, fire may wipe out Australia's giant gum trees

By Megan Clement, The Conversation

As Australia gears up for another risky bushfire season this summer, some of its most iconic and valuable forests are at risk.

Giant eucalpytus trees rely on fire to regenerate, but an increase in major bush fires due to climate change could stunt their growth, a Tasmanian ecologist has warned.

The Unviersity of Tasmania’s Professor David Bowman says giant gum trees – which can act as valuable carbon stores – may become a thing of the past.

Giant gum trees can grow up to 100 metres, and are hundreds of years old.

“They are a globally unique rainforest tree that recovers from bushfires with explosive growth to out-compete the other rainforest trees,” Bowman said.

Climate change driving US Drought conditions towards a megadrought?

The widespread and persistent drought in the US during 2011-2012 has expanded according to the US Drought Monitor as reported on Climate Central. Are we starting to see the signs of a megadrought in the US southwest? Are human influences such as climate change contributing to or causing this widespread extreme weather event?

As of 18 September 2012, 64.82 percent of the contiguous U.S. has been declared as suffering from at least moderate drought - a new record. Extreme drought occurs across 20.74 percent, while the most severe category has ravaged 6.26 per cent of the land. And the seasonal outlook provided by NOAA provides little happy news predicting the drought will persist till the end of the year.

The drought is the worst to occurr since the dustbowl years of the 1930s and comes as North America experiences well above normal temperatures over spring and summer breaking many temperature records with the first half of 2012 being the hottest on record for the United States. July 2012 was the hottest month on record for the continental United States. But Australia and a few other places had abnormally cool month so putting the chill on a hot July for a global record.

Changes in extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Climate change

A new international scientific study lead by a researcher from the University of Utah links extreme fire weather to increasing temperatures and drought driven by climate change.

The study, lead by geography professor Mitchell Power, found that the extent and intensity of wildfires on a continental and global basis is connected to changing temperatures and climate. The study dismissed the theory that population decline was the primary cause for reduced wildfire during the cooler periods in the last 2000 years arguing "climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline."

Wildfires in Canada approaching threshold point due to climate change

The climate is changing in Canada. New research indicates that large areas of Canada are approaching a threshold value where they may experience a rapid increase in the size of wildfires. Both the area burnt down annually and the average size of the fires would increase, write the researchers of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) and the University of Michigan who undertook the research.

Wildfire is expected to increase as a result of climate change in Canada with the majority of wildfires occurring in non-fragmented coniferous forests. Recovery from fire usually takes 20 years. If fires or logging occurrs on a frequent basis, this can cause landscape traps in which the ecology becomes permanently changed. (See example: mountain ash forest landscape trap of Victoria, Australia)

Intact native Forests mitigate bushfire in a warming climate

As Australia's climate warms up we are facing increased bush fire risk. Old growth forests trap moisture and provide an important bulwark against bushfires, while previously logged forest regrowth with trees of the same maturity will tend to burn at a much higher intensity.

Chris Taylor from Beyond Zero Emissions and Melbourne University has done an extensive bushfire data analysis that proves intact native forests mitigated the 2009 Victorian bushfires. He was speaking at the Australian Forests and Climate Forum 2011 held in August

Maybe it is time to stop logging our native forests for woodchip and protecting them as important bushfire management zones as well as important refugia for biodiversity in a time of global warming. Forests also play a major role as carbon sinks according to scientists with Victorian forests are amoung the world’s most carbon-dense which should be preserved and protected.

Logging of Victorian mountain ash forests increases bushfire risk

New scientific research published in September 2011 highlights that logging in Victoria’s mountain ash forests is increasing the risk of catastrophic wildfires. The cycling of logging and wildfire is creating a landscape trap where the wet forest ecosystem is being permanently converted to a new landscape replaced by other species, particularly wattle, increasing the frequency and intensity of bushfire risk.

"These changes will significantly impair ecological functions like carbon storage, water production and biodiversity conservation," said Professor Lindenmayer. "This is historically unprecedented and is beginning to dominate the mountain ash landscapes we see today."

Flooding rains now burning plains - Bushfire risk and climate change

Grass fires and bushfires are starting already, and it is only early October - with bushfire season officially still nearly a month away. The extremely wet season Australia had at the end of 2010 and start of 2011, brought on by one of the strongest La Niña on record, has stimulated vegetation growth and is set to cause great concern as it dries and cures in the summer heat with the onset of the summer bushfire season.

Bushfire CRC | CSIRO - Climate change impacts on fire weather

Climate Change contributes to Catastrophic Australian Bushfires

Scorching temperatures setting new meteorological records and wild winds up to 100 km per hour have caused hellish bushfires across the state of Victoria in south east Australia on Saturday February 7. The bushfires have caused more than 181 deaths with the death toll continuing to rise as more bodies are discovered. The final death toll may approach 300. Climate change has been identified as a contributing factor in increasing bushfire severity and intensity. The bushfire disaster eclipses the Ash Wednesday bushfires of 1983 toll when 75 people died in New South Wales and Victoria.