22 July 2024 was confirmed as warmest day globally in recent history. July 23 and July 21 also broke the record set in July 2023.
Yet Australia is still approving new coal and gas projects, allowing offshore #Fossilfuel exploration exacerbating the #ClimateCrisis. We need a #ClimateTrigger in National Environment laws
Sunday Monday and Tuesday this week all exceeded Global Daily Average Temperature Record set in July 2023. Welcome to the Anthropocene.
"what the actual F**K. this is totally insane. When I first saw this, I had trouble believing it myself. I'm shocked. Buenos Aires broke a record by over 5C - that's like Sydney experiencing a 30+C day at this time of year. This is bonkers. #climatechange"
https://twitter.com/sarahinscience/status/1686931331350188035
Australia is hot. But future extreme hot weather will be worse still, with new research predicting that Sydney and Melbourne are on course for 50℃ summer days by the 2040s if high greenhouse emissions continue. That means that places such as Perth, Adelaide and various regional towns could conceivably hit that mark even sooner.
This trend is worrying, but not particularly surprising given the fact that Australia is setting hot weather records at 12 times the pace of cold ones. But it does call for an urgent response.
Most of us are used to hot weather, but temperatures of 50℃ present unprecedented challenges to our health, work, transport habits, leisure and exercise.
Read more: Health Check: how to exercise safely in the heat
Humans have an upper limit to heat tolerance, beyond which we suffer heat stress and even death. Death rates do climb on extremely cold days, but increase much more steeply on extremely hot ones. While cold weather can be tackled with warm clothes, avoiding heat stress requires access to fans or air conditioning, which is not always available.
Even with air conditioning, simply staying indoors is not necessarily an option. People must venture outside to commute and shop. Many essential services have to be done in the open air, such as essential services and maintaining public infrastructure.
Roughly 80% of the energy produced during muscular activity is heat, which must be dissipated to the environment, largely through perspiration. This process is far less effective in hot and humid conditions, and as a result the body’s core temperature begins to climb.
We can cope with increased temperatures for short periods – up to about half an hour – particularly those people who are fit, well hydrated and used to hot conditions. But if body temperature breaches 40-42℃ for an extended time, heat stress and death are likely. In hot enough weather, even going for a walk can be deadly.
We expect air conditioning to take the strain, but may not realise just how much strain is involved. Shade temperatures of 50℃ mean that direct sunlight can raise the temperature to 60℃ or 70℃. Bringing that back to a comfortable 22℃ or even a warm 27℃ is not always possible and requires a lot of energy – putting serious strain on the electricity grid.
Electricity transmission systems are inherently vulnerable to extreme heat. This means they can potentially fail simply due to the weather, let alone the increased demand on the grid from power consumers.
Power cuts can cause chaos, including the disruption to traffic signals on roads that may already be made less safe as their surfaces soften in the heat. Interruptions to essential services such as power and transport hamper access to lifesaving health care.
It’s a dangerous game to use past extremes as a benchmark when planning for the future. The new research shows that our climate future will be very different from the past.
Melbourne’s 2014 heatwave triggered a surge in demand for ambulances that greatly exceeded the number available. Many of those in distress waited hours for help, and the death toll was estimated at 203.
Just last month, parts of New South Wales and Victoria experienced temperatures 16 degrees warmer than the September average, and 2017 is tracking as the world’s second-warmest year on record.
Last year, the Australian Summit on Extreme Heat and Health warned that the health sector is underprepared to face existing heat extremes.
The health sector is concerned about Australia’s slow progress and is responding with the launch of a national strategy for climate, health and well-being. Reinstating climate and health research, health workforce training and health promotion are key recommendations.
There is much more to be done, and the prospect of major cities sweltering through 50℃ days escalates the urgency.
Read more: Climate policy needs a new lens: health and well-being
Two key messages arise from this. The first is that Australia urgently needs to adapt to the extra warming. Heat-wise communities (or “heat-safe communities” in some states) – where people understand the risks, protect themselves and look after each other – are vital to limit harm from heat exposure. The health sector must have the resources to respond to those who succumb. Research, training and health promotion are central.
The second message is that nations across the world need to improve their efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, so as to meet the Paris climate goal of holding global warming to 1.5℃.
If we can do that, we can stave off some of the worst impacts. We have been warned.
Liz Hanna, Honorary Senior Fellow, Australian National University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
The Climate Council has released it's latest report written by Professor Will Steffen: Off the Charts: 2013 was Australia's hottest year.
It draws heavily on the detail in the Bureau of Meteorology Annual Climate Statement for 2013 which I reported on, but also puts the information in context with the global trend and other scientific papers and reviews such as the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC Working Group 1: the Physcical Science released in late September 2013.
If follows the Climate Council's first major report published at the end of 2013 on by Professor Lesley Hughes: Be Prepared: Climate Change and the Australian Bushfire Threat.
Last year Australia suffered it's hottest year on record, with scientists claiming that extensive fractional risk attribution modelling of 2013 temperatures that this was clearly caused by human greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
A wildlife conservation organisation, the Bat Conservation and Rescue Queensland Ltd, said that "many colonies across South-East Queensland have been severely affected including those at Camira, Mt. Ommaney, Pan Pacific Gardens, Regents Park, Boonah, Bellmere, Pine Rivers and Palmwoods. Reports indicate all Western Suburbs colonies and inland, and colonies from Gympie down to Yamanto have been devastated."
We tend to think of our own comfort and safety in extreme weather events, but animals and plants can also suffer. Heat related stress is a major cause of increased human mortality during heatwaves. But these events also impact populations of many species such as flying foxes and birds. They can't seek shelter in air-conditioned lounge rooms or shopping centres (except maybe the odd few sparrows). Instead, they fall from their tree roosts suffering heat exhaustion and dehydration.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed on 3 January 2014 in the annual climate statement that 2013 was the hottest year on record for Australia. This was all the more concerning considering the neutral ENSO conditions. 2013 also ranks as the sixth-warmest year since global records commenced in 1880, according to the WMO.
Related: Sea surface temperatures unusually warm around Australia in 2013 | 2013 was Australia's hottest year, warm for much of the world say Bureau of Meteorology scientists | SMH: Climate change: It's hot - and not just in the kitchens of bickering MPs | Alex White (Guardian): Australia swelters under a sham climate change policy after hottest year on record
The residents of Manhattan and New York are already feeling the effects of global warming after experiencing Hurricanes Irene and Superstorm Sandy. But more is in store with more frequent large storms, rising sea levels, and higher temperatures and heatwaves in summer. The latest scientific study identifies that rising temperatures and heatwaves are likely to substantially increase temperature related deaths in the city.
The study by public health and climate reserachers at Columbia University in New York projects that in the 2020s there will be a mean increase of about 20 percent in deaths due to heat, set against a mean decrease of about 12 percent in deaths due to cold, with a net result of a 5 or 6 percent increase in overall temperature-related deaths. Heat related mortality is expected to rise steeply in projections for the 2050s and 2080s, despite alternate emissions scenarios. The worst case scenario is projected to cause over 1,000 annual heat related deaths by rising temperatures and heatwaves.
Climate change will result in hotter and more humid environment for the tropics and mid latitudes resulting in increasing economic costs of reduced work capacity due to heat stress. The study by NOAA scientists said work capacity has already reduced by 10 percent during extreme heat in summer months. This is likely to double to 20 per cent by 2050.
One of the physical properties of warmer air is that it can hold more moisture. So in hot weather atmospheric humdity can be more extreme. But there are physiological limits of human health in coping with temperature extremes. In 2010 Scientists outlined health limits of heat stress with Climate Change. The scientific paper by Steven Sherwood from the University of NSW and Professor Matthew Huber from Purdue University - 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' outlined the health adaptation limits of the human body.
Humans and most mammals maintain a core body temperature around 37 °C that may vary slightly among individuals but does not adapt to the local climate. To allow transfer and regulation of metabolic heat human skin is strongly regulated at 35 °C or below, a couple of degrees colder than core body temperature. This allows the body to dissipate heat through the skin at wet-bulb temperatures below 35 °C.
In this latest study, the researchers looked at military and industrial guidelines already in place for those who work in hot and humid conditions outside, and set those guidelines against climate projections for how hot and humid it's likely to get over the next century, using Wet Bulb temperatures scale which take account of humidity and wind speed. Using a middle of the road modelling projection they estimated that reduced work capacity due to heat stress is likely to double to 20 per cent by 2050.
A Stanfoord University Professor of civil and environmental engineering has suggested that installing solar photo-voltaic panels on your house would be a better contribution to reducing global temperatures than the geo-engineering solution of painting vast numbers of urban roofs white to combat the urban heat island contribution to global warming. "There does not seem to be a benefit from investing in white roofs," said Professor Jacobson. "The most important thing is to reduce emissions of the pollutants that contribute to global warming."
Cities and urban areas release more heat to the atmosphere than rural areas - this is known as the Urban Heat Island effect. Climate skeptics have used this to argue that surface temperature data is contaminated by the location of data collection in urban areas. A new scientific study by Stanford University researchers has quantified the contribution of the heat islands on a global basis for the first time, showing that the contribution to global warming from urban heat islands is modest compared with what greenhouse gas emissions contribute.
Related: Skeptical Science: Does Urban Heat Island effect exaggerate global warming trends? | RealClimate: The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island
"Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning."
"The simplest prediction of global warming's effect on TwMax is to assume a uniform upward shift of the Tw distribution. A 4 °C increase in Tw would then subject over half the world's population annually to unprecedented values and cut the "safety buffer" that now exists between the highest maximum Tw and 35 °C to roughly a quarter. A shift of 5 °C would allow maximum Tw to exceed 35 °C in some locations, and a shift of 8.5 °C would bring the most-common value to 35 °C. It has been similarly pointed out that a few degrees of warming will produce unprecedented temperature and agricultural stresses in the tropics"
