La Niña brings some rain, as Global Climate hots up

One of the important weather factors in the Pacific basin affecting global weather but particularly Pacific Rim countries is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño and La Niña are caused by a change in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean which affects trade wind patterns which bring rain and drought to regions around the Pacific and further afield. A La Niña condition has been developing since February 2007 and is likely to last to April 2008.

Related: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

La Niña operating until April 2008

In November/December 2007 we are experiencing La Niña with sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific below average, and temperatures in the western tropical Pacific above average. La Niña brings rain to Indonesia and Australia and drought to the southwest of the United States, western Mexico, Peru and Chile. Effects are typically opposite to those associated with El Niño.

The Southern Oscillation has a global impact. NASA describes the effect as:

"Globally, La Niña is characterized by wetter than normal conditions west of the equatorial central Pacific over northern Australia and Indonesia during the northern hemisphere winter, and over the Philippines during the northern hemisphere summer. Wetter than normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil, during the northern hemisphere winter season. During the northern hemisphere summer season, the Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal, especially in northwest India. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons."

Australia: Higher than average temperatures and rainfall predicted

The widespread rains in Victoria and New South Wales over the last week were probably partly induced by La Niña. The POAMA model run daily at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts "La Niña conditions to remain over the coming months, persisting until around April 2008." Read more about Australian rainfall patterns during La Niña events.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting higher than average temperatures over much of southern Australia from January to March 2008. The temperature on New Years Eve in Melbourne is predicted to be 38 degrees. There is also a greater chance for higher than the median rainfall "in a large area extending from southeast Queensland across both the northern inland and east of NSW. The southwest of WA also has similar chances, although it's a seasonally dry time of the year in this part of the country."

For North and South America "La Niña is the diva of drought,” explained Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “It keeps the Pacific jet stream farther north, toward Oregon, Washington, and Canada, so the U.S. Southwest and Southeast get less moisture.”

Warmest Decade on Record

The World Meteorology Organisation announced in a press release on 13 December that the decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record. "The global mean surface temperature for 2007 is currently estimated at 0.41°C/0.74°F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.20°F." The statement also detailed "the record-low Arctic sea ice extent...., a relatively small Antarctic Ozone Hole; development of La Niña in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific; and devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world."

"2007 global temperatures have been averaged separately for both hemispheres. Surface temperatures for the northern hemisphere are likely to be the second warmest on record, at 0.63°C above the 30-year mean (1961-90) of 14.6°C/58.3°F. The southern hemisphere temperature is 0.20°C higher than the 30-year average of 13.4°C/56.1°F, making it the ninth warmest in the instrumental record since 1850."

According to the WMO statement "Australia recorded its coldest ever June with the mean temperature dropping to 1.5°C below normal." and "while conditions were not as severely dry as in 2006, long term drought meant water resources remained extremely low in many areas. Below average rainfall over the densely populated and agricultural regions resulted in significant crop and stock losses, as well as water restrictions in most major cities."

Sea Level Rise and Greenland Ice melt Accelerating

The WMO highlighted that sea level continues to rise "substantially above the average for the 20th century of about 1.7 mm per year." According to satellite measurements "global averaged sea level has been rising at about 3 mm per year" since 1993. This comes hot on the news that the melting of the Greenland icecap is accelerating according to study by the Steffen Research Group from the University of Colorado at Boulder. "The amount of ice lost by Greenland over the last year is the equivalent of two times all the ice in the Alps, or a layer of water more than one-half mile deep covering Washington, D.C." said lead climate scientists Konrad Steffen. "The more lubrication there is under the ice, the faster that ice moves to the coast," said Steffen. "Those glaciers with floating ice 'tongues' also will increase in iceberg production." Greenland ice melt currently contributes to global sea levels by about 0.5 millimeters per year. Some climate scientists like James Hansen believe the Greenland ice sheet may disintegrate within 100 years leading to a sea level rise of several metres.

Sources:

* NASA Earth Observatory La Nina for November. See also from February 2007 El Nino May Be Morphing to La Nina and in October 2007 La Nina Strenghtens in Autumn 2007
* NASA Earth Observatory La Niña Factsheet
* Bureau of Meteorology El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
* Bureau of Meteorology Dec 17, 2007 - Warmer season favoured in southern Australia
* Bureau of Meteorology Dec 17, 2007 - Mixed March quarter rainfall outlook
* World Meteorological Organization Dec 13, 2007Press Release No 805
* NASA Earth Observatory - Media Alert Dec 11, 2007 GREENLAND MELT ACCELERATING, ACCORDING TO CU-BOULDER STUDY

Climate Change Road map Agreement Reached in Bali Meeting COP13

Climate Talks concluded in Bali with the United States caving in under pressure of the European Union and the developing world and agreeing to a compromise text in the preamble of "Deep cuts in global emissions will be required" to avoid dangerous climate change. The guideline that rich countries should cut emissions by 25-40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 as recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was moved to a footnote at the US delegation's insistence.

Photos: Transnational Institute | Oxfam | Greenpeace | Related: FoE: Kyoto afloat after attempted sabotage

Melbourne now Freeway capital of Australia - a Disaster for Climate and Sustainability

A new report from University of Melbourne on travelling to work says that car travel in Melbourne is the "worst performing city over the three decades. It has the biggest increase in car driving and the biggest declines in public transport, car pooling and walking. More cars are driven to work each day in Melbourne than in Sydney, despite Sydney’s much bigger workforce. The share of workers who drive is now higher in Melbourne than in Sydney, Brisbane, Hobart and even Canberra. This appears to be a result of Melbourne having constructed more urban freeways and tollways over the last 30 years than any other capital."
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Related: Travel to work in Australian capital cities, 1976-2006 |

Victoria Envirowatch: one year in

The report’s principal author, Dr Paul Mees, said that despite the recent focus on climate change and the push towards more sustainable living, city based workers remain unconvinced with many driving to work. "There has been a dramatic increase in the number of cars driven to work each day in Australia capital city – a 70.1% rise over the past 30 years. That’s more than 1.4 million cars on the road each day since census data began recording work travel information. The result has been a huge increase in greenhouse emissions."

According to the report just over 78% of Melbourne workers drive each day, while just 13.9% use public transport. Cycling accounts for just one per cent of trips everywhere, though the figure is higher in Canberra (2.5%) and in the innercity suburbs of capital cities. Although increasing its profile as sustainable transport for urban workers, cycling is growing from a very low base.

The report says that "The census data show that treating traffic problems by building more roads is an ineffective response. The main result has been to shift travellers out of environmentally friendly modes and into cars. By contrast, the performance of public transport and walking can be improved more cheaply and would produce superior environmental outcomes."

The federal government comes in for criticism over its funding priorities: "The Auslink scheme is exacerbating urban transport problems, because it is biased in favour of new roads and against urban rail infrastructure. Investment needs to be redirected away from urban motorways towards more environmentally friendly modes, particularly public transport and walking. This is the only way Australia can meet its international environmental obligations in the transport arena."

The report recommends that "State governments also need to change their transport policies, which remain dominated by motorway-building. In addition, they need to reform the governance and management of public transport, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, both of which lack competent, dynamic regional public transport agencies."

Big Carbon emissions Projects in the Pipeline

Victorian Premier John Brumby has just come back from the Climate Change talks in Bali and undoubtedly we will see pronouncements about his Governments green credentials and projects to reduce emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. But Kenneth Davidson has just written a scathing column in the Age titled Big projects taking us all for a ride.

Davidson points out that:

* Melburnians are growing more dependent on cars to get to work, and going backwards in terms of comparative trends in other Australian cities. (See Melbourne now Freeway capital of Australia - a disaster for climate and sustainability)
* In 2005 the State Labor Government extended the life of the Hazelwood power station from 2009 to 2031, even though it is the dirtiest power station in the country.
* Building a highly energy intensive desalination plant under a public-private partnership, thus ensuring that we will get and pay for deslinated water and profits for the plant operator even when there is sufficient natural supply in our water reservoirs. In other words profits from selling water will take priority over CO2 emissions and climate change.
* The Government is considering an east-west tunnel connecting the Eastern Freeway to EastLink, running under the Melbourne Cemetery at a time of rising oil prices with the onset of Peak Oil which will make "tollways redundant long before their economic life ends."
* There has been no significant heavy rail extensions since the opening of the Glen Waverley line in 1930. According to Davidson Melbourne's public transport system has been mismanaged since its privatisation in 1999 with subsidies to Melbourne's public transport operators having doubled in real terms since 1999.

According to Environment Victoria half of the Victorian Government’s environment election promises are at risk of not being delivered or have already been broken. The report says that the State Government has broken three of its 68 pre-election environment promises, while another 31 show little or no signs of progress. It has so far kept seven of its pre-election promises, while another 27 are on target to be delivered. The broken promises relate to the decision to raid rivers of their legal water entitlements to provide water for urban use and agriculture. Over 50 per cent of the Government’s climate change promises are at risk of not being delivered.

Ms O’Shanassy from Environment Victoria said the Government would need to significantly boost energy efficiency and renewable energy programs over the next three years to meet their election promises. "Unfortunately, even if all these promises are met, they are unlikely to ensure Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions actually fall," she said. "What we’re really missing is a short-term target to reduce pollution that informs all government decisions."

Don't hold your breathe. Our politicians are stuffing up in not funding major public transport infrastructure building in reversing car dependence. This particularly affects outer suburban areas. The crunch will come with Peak Oil as petrol prices increase as demand soars. Transport is second to Electricity production in its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The greater the intransigence now the greater the social cost downstream to our children and grandchildren.

Reports:

* Travel to work in Australian capital cities, 1976-2006: an analysis of census data | Press Release
* Envirowatch: one year in


Originally published at Melbourne Cyclist by Takver

Ocean warming: Ocean Heat Content Change (W - year/m2) 1993-2003

"Not only is Earth absorbing about 0.85 Watts of energy per square meter more than it is radiating back to space, but a sizable chunk of that excess energy is “hiding” in Earth’s oceans, its full effect on the climate system still unrealized.

These maps show observed (top) and modeled (below) energy imbalances in the top 750 meters (2,461 feet) of the world’s oceans from 1993-2003. Areas where there was an energy surplus are shown in shades of yellow to red, while areas where there was an energy deficit are in shades of green to purple.

Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming

Guest post by Don Beck reposted from Sydney Indymedia

Global warming seems mysterious to most of us. A 1 degree rise in annual global temperature sounds minuscule, doesn't it....... until you remember that the oceans are involved ........... very heavily involved.

The oceans are simply unfathomably immense! Their mass is actually incomprehensible, being 70% of the earth's surface (310 million cubic miles). If you could stack water 100 cubic miles long and 100 cubic miles wide, that column would reach 31,000 miles into outer space. That is truly an astronomical amount of water!

Australian Election: Bush Ally Howard Defeated in Labor Landslide, Kevin Rudd new Prime Minister

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) were elected in a landslide win in the Australian Federal election on Saturday, November 24. The 'bastards' of the Liberal and National party coalition Government have been voted out. And the Prime Minister, John Howard, once called by a Liberal Party colleague 'the lying rodent', is likely to lose his own seat in the swing against the conservatives, only the second Prime Minister to do so in Australia's short political history since federation in 1901.

The Australian Labor Party is now in government in all states and territories and federally. The highest ranking elected Liberal Party politician in power is the Lord Mayor of Brisbane.

Activists close Power station As Evidence mounts on Climate Change Accelerating

15 Greenpeace activists closed down Munmorah coal fired power station on Thursday in protest against the greenhouse gas emission policies of the Howard Government and Rudd opposition. The power station is located on the Central coast of NSW, 110 km north of Sydney, and has been identified as one of the most polluting coal stations in the world.

The protest ocurred as a new report (PDF) was published by the Climate Institute that said "the IPCC assessment is underestimating the risks of adverse impacts due to increased warming during this century and that impacts previously considered to be at the upper end of likelihood are now more probable. Greenhouse emissions are rising faster than the worst case IPCC scenarios."

Greenpeace Photos | videos 1, 2 | CARMA - Carbon Monitoring for Action | Carbon Equity | Video: Peter Costello on 2050 climate targets

Greenpeace is campaigning for greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 30% by 2020 by switching from polluting coal power to clean energy systems and energy conservation. The activists draped a banner over the coal feed conveyor belt housing reading 'Climate change starts here'. Another group climbed onto the roof of the main building and painted the message "Coal Kills", which is clearly visible from the air.

Steve Campbell, head of Greenpeace campaigns said "With just one week until the election, both major parties are backing climate policies that will see emissions increase. Neither Howard nor Rudd have committed to making the deep cuts needed in the next decade if we are to avoid dangerous climate change,"

"Coal is killing our planet and our future. This week the world's top scientists are warning that we must slash emissions by 2020. There is no way we can do this unless we push the emergency stop on coal, starting with the oldest and dirtiest plants, like Munmorah."

"We can expect to see more and more people taking part in civil disobedience actions against coal power," Campbell said. "To stop climate change we need to make the switch from coal to clean renewable energy. We are calling on John Howard and Kevin Rudd to put in place the clean energy policies needed to make this happen."

Munmorah Power Station is NSW’s oldest power station, built between 1967 and 1969, with a capacity of 600MW and is owned by the State Government through Delta Electricity. Delta has said that unless Mumorah is refurbished, it will close in about 2012.

According to Greenpeace, in 2006 Munmorah generated 1,416Gwh of electricity, the most since 1994. Given that Munmorah emits 1.065 tonnes of greenhouse pollution for every megawatt hour of electricity generated, it would have produced about 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 in 2006, about 1% of NSW’s total.

Greenpeace suggests programs such as switching all households to solar hot water and upgrading household insulation would save approximately four times the outout of Munmorah. Energy conservation programs could save up to 30 per cent of energy demand, with the projection of wind and solar under present policies of meeting 15-20% of electricity consumption by 2020.

International Study on Power Station emissions

Coincidentally, the protest ocurred on the same day that an international study by the Centre for Global Development of the world's 50,000 power stations was released, which ranked Australia as the world's worst greenhouse gas emitter on a per capita basis. According to the study Australian power plants produce more than 11 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per person each year, ahead of the United States, rated second at more than nine tonnes per person, while China is down the list and only rates two tonnes per person.

The information has been collated in a huge database called CARMA—Carbon Monitoring for Action, that anyone can visit. “CARMA makes information about power-related CO2 emissions transparent to people throughout the world,” says Dr. Wheeler, an expert in the use of public information disclosure to reduce pollution. “Information leads to action. We know that this works for other forms of pollution and we believe it can work for greenhouse gas emissions, too.”

“We expect that institutional and private investors, insurers, lenders, environmental and consumer groups and individual activists will use the CARMA data to encourage power companies to burn less coal and oil and to shift to renewable power sources, such as wind and solar,” Dr. Wheeler said.

Report: Evidence of Accelerated Climate Change

The report prepared for the Climate Institute was peer reviewed by Graeme Pearman, former head of CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. The report briefly looks at temperature increases, Greenhouse Gas Concentration, melting sea ice, collapsing ice shelves, sea level rise, declining sinks and growing sources. It comes just before the release of the 4th report by the IPCC, which it criticises as aleady out of date. It strongly argues "the case for a policy of risk management and more urgent intervention is strengthened."

Climate Institute chief executive John Connor told the ABC "It means we're running out of time to help stop dangerous climate change and our politicians need to be much more urgent and decisive in the actions that they're taking in cutting greenhouse pollution, making the switch to green energy and showing real international leadership on this," he said.

The report summary says in full:

"Managing the risk of climate change requires consideration of those consequences that we understand and those where there is the potential (particularly if it is large) for impacts, even though at this stage the probability of the occurrence is unknown. This paper suggests that there exists evidence that the IPCC process may have led to an underestimation of the risk of greater warming and that the impacts of climate change are occurring more rapidly then previously projected. In part this may reflect the rapidly unfolding observations and theoretical understanding of climate change. This range of issues will require close monitoring and further research, and inclusion into the risk management process preceding policy development. To the extent that the impacts of climate change may be in the more severe range of those outlined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the case for a policy of risk management and more urgent intervention is strengthened."

Thousands march for Action on Climate Change

Over 100,000 people marched around Australia against the lack of action on climate change by our political leaders including 30,000 people in Sydney, 8,000 in Canberra, 1,500 in Adelaide, 3,000 in Hobart, and up to 50,000 in Melbourne. At more than fifty locations around Australia people participated in the Walk Against Warming.

Photos: Melbourne1 2 | Perth1 2 | Goldcoast | Sydney | Adelaide1 2 | Cairns | Brisbane | Canberra

Video: Thousands march in Melbourne | Hobart Walk says no to Pulp Mill

In Sydney shadow Environment Minister Peter Garret from the Labor Party was booed with some people in the crowd turning their back when he spoke. Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, although invited, did not attend. Leader of the Greens Bob Brown also addressed the Sydney rally to warm applause. Other speakers included executive director of GetUp Brett Solomon, and the 9-year-old star of The Climate Institute’s TV ad campaign, Jack Simmons. Both the Government and the Labor Party have not given commitments to short term targets, and their longer term targets are being criticised as too little too late.

“Neither of the old parties will tackle these priority issues – we need a seismic change of thinking at the top." said Senator Bob Brown. The Greens have a target of 30% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2020. Senator Brown said that Labor’s Peter Garrett ‘copped some stick’ from the crowd, “but Peter turned up and put Labor’s climate change strategy to the Australia people. Malcolm Turnbull squibbed it. “

Like the USA, Australia has refused to sign the Kyoto protocol. The climate policies of both major Australian parties allow Australia’s emissions to continue to rise. New coal-fired power stations continue to be built, with 11 new coal projects under construction or planned which will see emissions increase by 10% over current levels, according to Greenpeace.

Cate Faehrmann, Executive Director of the NSW Nature Conservation Council called on the next elected government for a short-term target to reduce greenhouse pollution by at least 30 per cent by 2020. “Walk Against Warming has been the biggest public rally of the federal election campaign, which demonstrates how concerned Australians are about climate change and just how important an issue it is for the coming election,”

"The election countdown now stands at less than 2 weeks and Australians have voted with their feet to let politicians know they expect leadership on climate change, not half measures. An important test of leadership on climate change is now to act on the scientific evidence of global warming and reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.” said Ms Faehrmann.

Across New South Wales many of the 32 Walks were held in marginal electorates including Parramatta, Dobell, Page and Eden-Monaro.

In Melbourne many families with kids attended the march, with prepared placards from Greenpeace, Zero Emissions Network, Get Up!, and other environmental and activist groups. There was an abundance of home made placards and banners. Turtles, polar bears and John Howard puppets enlivened the march, along with several street bands.

Funny enough the Age newspaper in Melbourne focused on the Sydney rally where some of the crowd (SMH report) turning their backs on Peter Garrett. (Age Report) The main photo in Monday's Age shows an estimated crowd of up to 50,000 people (Herald Sun, SBS news, Age), in Swanston Street. The rally was adressed by head of World Vision Tim Costello (brother to Treasurer Peter Costello) at the State Library before the march down Swanston Street to a festival in the Alexandra Gardens where the Counterfeit Gypsies performed for the crowd.

See Also: Green Left Initial Report: Rallies call for action on climate change. | The Big Switch

Walk Against Warming 2007: Photos by Takver

Climate activists blockade Newcastle Coal Port

More than a hundred people participated in a maritime blockade of Newcastle Port on November 3 to protest the expansion of the export coal industry and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Hundreds more people watched the protest from shore. The protesters, in a flotilla of kayaks, canoes and small boats blocked the main shipping channel for about 5 hours.

Related: George Darroch Photos | Sutherland CAN Photos | Rising Tide Australia

Newcastle is the world's biggest coal port, with the NSW Government committing to a third export coal terminal and new coal mines, while the world faces a climate crisis. According to the latest figures submitted to the United Nations, Australia is one of the worst greenhouse gas emitters in the developed world, and rapidly getting worse. Australia's emissions increased by 26 per cent from 1990 to 2005, which was one the fastest rates of emissions growth among developed nations. Average emissions per person in Australia is now 26 tonnes per year, outranking the USA (25t), Russia (14t), India (10t), and China (4t).

Greens Senator Kerry Nettle participated in the blockade and claimed later that the action had delayed the transport of coal which when burnt would put 1.66 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere.

"If Labor and the government were serious about stopping climate change they would have a plan for the transition from dirty coal to renewable energy, but they don't," she said according to a report in the Sydney Morning Herald.

The protest was organised by climate protest group Rising Tide Newcastle. Spokesperson Georgina Wood said the protest against the expansion of coal export facilities was a success. "It is clear the community is calling for change, and that our governments need to heed that call."

A woman suffered back injuries from a police jetski that failed to stop in time during the protest. She was taken to hospital but released a short time later. A Rising Tide spokeperson told the ABC the incident was due to aggressive actions by police. Police are investigating the incident.

The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change is due to hand down the final part of the Fourth Assessment report on November 17, which will help set the agenda for climate talks scheduled in Bali in December 2007.

German Environmental Foundation announces Peak Oil is here.

Peak Oil is here and was reached in 2006, announced the Energy Watch Group in London on October 22, 2007. This simple statement will progressively affect our whole society, particularly our food production, energy and transportation systems. Demand for oil is already outstripping supply with the industrialization of India and China. Oil production is at capacity and will soon start to decline at an increasing rate. Crude oil hit $88 a barrel recently and is set to rise even further once the decline in production becomes apparent.

"The most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak", warns Jörg Schindler from the Energy Watch Group. This result, together with the timing of the peak, is obviously in sharp contrast to the projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA). "Since crude oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil, the future oil availability is of paramount importance as it entails completely different actions by politics, business and individuals.", says Schindler.

Until recently the International Energy Agency has denied that a fundamental change of energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. Hans-Josef Fell MP, a prominent Green Party member of the German Parliament said "The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a diffusing signal to the markets and blocks investments in already available renewable energy technologies."

The Energy Watch Group was initiated by Hans-Josef Fell, Member of the German Parliament (deutscher Bundestag) since 1998, Speaker for the Energy and Technology Policy of the Parliamentary Party Alliance 90/The Green Party and Chairman of the Environment Committee, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. Parliamentarians from other countries have since become involved in the organisation which is supported by the Ludwig-Bölkow-Foundation. Funding by the foundation allows project scientists to work on studies independently of Government and company interests concerning the shortage of fossil and atomic energy resources, development scenarios for regenerative energy sources as well as strategies deriving from these for a long-term secure energy supply at affordable prices.

The report says that remaining world oil reserves are estimated to be 1,255 Gb (Giga barrel) according to the industry database HIS (2006). But the Energy Watch Group (EWG) contradict this figure and say that there are sound reasons to modify these figures for some regions and key countries, leading to an estimate of 854 Gb. The EWG analysis is based primarily on production data which is more transparent and thus more reliable than reserves data which in the past have been frequently "adjusted".

Peak Oil is now, the report says, and it signals that human society is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. A sharp decline of fossil fuel supplies will influence almost all aspects of daily life according to the report. Climate change will also force mankind to change energy consumption patterns by significantly reducing the burning of fossil fuels.

The report warns that supply shortages could easily lead to disturbing scenes of mass unrest and a meltdown of society. "My experience of debating the peak oil issue with the oil industry, and trying to alert Whitehall to it, is that there is a culture of institutionalised denial in government and the energy industry. As the evidence of an early peak in production unfolds, this becomes increasingly impossible to understand", says Jeremy Leggett, the Solarcentury CEO and former member of the British Government’s Renewables Advisory Board.

Now the crunch is upon us with both peak oil and climate change. Time is fast running out for making structural changes in our energy and transport systems to cushion the impact of peak oil. And still we see Governments the world over committing resources to major road building when the prospects for road transport are looking particularly bleak with the projected increase in fuel prices as oil demand and prices skyrockets. Few Governments are pledging large scale expansion of the public transport and rail freight system which may soften the social impact of peak oil and reduce greenhouse emissions.

Most food production is now highly capital intensive and relies on oil as a fuel and as fertilizer products. When oil is too expensive to use, our farming techniques will need to adjust to smaller scale agriculture more dependent on human labour. Are you ready to become a farmer?

The business as usual scenario can only result in many people being hurt.

If you want to see an example of a society forced to experience peak oil, the Soviet withdrawal of support to Cuba after 1989 precipitated an oil crisis which forced food rationing, a major shakeup of public transport and agricultural systems. "The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" is a documentary about how Cuba faced this crisis. Soon it will be our turn for the crisis. How ready are you? How ready are our governments? Do we really need expanded roads and taxcuts with a peak oil crisis looming?

The executive summary conclusions of the report say that:

• Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
  
• The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.
  
• Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels.
  
• The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change fundamentally.
  
• The International Energy Agency denies that a fundamental change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. This sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers.
  

Sources:

• Energy Watch Group, London, 22 October 2007 - Peak Oil could trigger meltdown of society
  
• Energy Watch Group, London, 22 October 2007 - Crude Oil – The Supply Outlook Full Report and Executive Summary
  

Based upon an original story from Sydney Indymedia - Peak Oil Has Arrived: Report Warns of Social Meltdown