Is Australia prepared for a wildfire emergency in 2023 summer?

Queensland Fire incidents map Sat 19 August 11am

Early Fire season started this weekend in SE Queensland. Warmer temperatures with climate change is driving earlier fire seasons, more intense fire weather.

This fire season in Queensland is one month earlier start than the 2019-2020 bushfire season.

Key Points:
BOM says conditions ripe for high fire danger
Meteorologists warn people must take precautions
Australia's worst recorded bushfire season of 2019-2020 sparked on Queensland's Granite Belt in Sep 2019, burnt for months.

According to the Buraeu of Meteorology fire danger for the following regions were rated high on Friday: Capricornia, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast. All other regions were rated as moderate fire danger.

Record Extreme heat in Chile, Argentina... in winter.

We are just having a record warm winter in Tasmania, parts of Victoria and Sydney, slightly more pleasant temperatures, but in Chile and Argentina in South America at the moment it is hot...in winter...

Australian climate heatwave expert A/Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (@sarahinscience) described the South American heat event:

"what the actual F**K. this is totally insane. When I first saw this, I had trouble believing it myself. I'm shocked. Buenos Aires broke a record by over 5C - that's like Sydney experiencing a 30+C day at this time of year. This is bonkers. #climatechange"
https://twitter.com/sarahinscience/status/1686931331350188035

Tasmania breaks July winter temperature records; Sydney records hottest July temperature

Temperature records tumble during winter in Tasmania in July. And Sydney set a new warmist July record. It seems July temperature records aren't only being broken during the northern hemisphere heatwaves, but also in the depths of winter season in Australia.

In Tasmania:

• statewide mean maximum temperature was 1.40 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record. 
• statewide mean minimum temperature was 2.63 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record since observations begun in 1910. 
• Minimum temperatures were more than 8 °C higher than average for parts of the north-east on the 8th.
• 
  13th July particularly warm. Many sites had their highest daily minimum temperature for July on record.
• Hobart had its warmest July night on record reaching  13.0 °C (137 years of observations).

"For Tasmania, the July statewide mean maximum temperature was 1.40 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record. For New South Wales this July was the fourth-warmest on record, for Victoria the sixth-warmest on record and for South Australia the tenth-warmest on record."

"Tasmania's statewide mean minimum temperature was 2.63 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record since observations begun in 1910.  For Queensland this July was the seventh-warmest on record."

"much of Tasmania had a very warm night on the 13th. Many sites had their highest daily minimum temperature for July on record. Hobart had its warmest July night on record reaching  13.0 °C (137 years of observations)."

This follows a warm June with temperature and rainfall records falling:

• A couple of sites had their highest June temperature on record and a couple of others their highest daily minimum temperature on record on the 17th due to a prevailing and warm north to north-westerly airstream.
• A few sites had their highest June daily rainfall on record and a couple their highest total June rainfall on record.

Satire: Worldwide temperatures offers incredibly ‘hot’ travel deals | while Aviation promotes 'Sustainable' Aviation Fuels

Satirist Mark Humphries does some marketing for the aviation and international travel industry, taking into account current climate conditions in this new Age of Global Boiling. It reflects the amount of travel advertising reliant on boosting aviation, which exacerbates the climate crisis.

Voiceover: "Ironically emissions from air travel are part of the problem".

Meanwhile the Tourism and aviation industry pin their hopes for growth on Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). But these fuels are problematic, not a silver bullet.

"The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived." says Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General

Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General made a blistering speech launching an analysis by the World Meteorological organisation confirming July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded by a large margin. 

He called for "Leaders must lead, No more hesitancy. No more excuses. No more waiting for others to move first. There is simply no more time for that." He called in particular for "stop oil and gas expansion, and funding and licensing for new coal, oil and gas.".

Will Australia's Labor Government listen to this call? They have already approved new coal and gas, and Scarborough Gas and Beetaloo Gas and pending.

July temperatures have brought climate disasters to the northern hemisphere. Global Sea Surface temperatures are off the charts, particularly North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Antarctic sea Ice formation is 6 deviations from the mean trend, with a risk of tipping points.

Climate Signals: Record global daily temperatures, Sea Surface temperatures, and Antarctic sea ice extent decline

Across the globe we are seeing incredible anomalies in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice extent decline.

Record global daily temperatures in July

"23rd day of record global temperatures, likely the hottest 23 days in the last 100,000+ years, making much of the planet unsafe for children and other living things." Professor Eliot Jacobson

Open Letter to the Commonwealth Bank Board to stop financing fossil fuels

Commonwealth Bank are preparing a new Environment, Sustainability and Governance (ESG) policy framework which the Board of the Bank will consider on August 9, 2023. I sent the board members the following email raising my concerns and asking them to take action.

High Ambition Coalition calls for End to Fossil Fuels and Move Towards a Clean Energy World in leadup to COP28

While Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese lauded joining the Climate Club as Australia stepping up in climate policy ambition, the real ambition was outlined in a statement by the High Ambition Coalition last Friday, 14 July 2023, calling for Ending the Fossil Fuel Era & Move Towards a Clean Energy World.

If Australia has true climate ambition it should join the High Ambition Coalition and implement policies that reflect actual high climate ambition, not just rhetoric.

For a brief period at COP21 in Paris in 2015 Foreign Minister Julie Bishop for Australia did endorse the High Ambition Coalition 1.5C target that formed the basis of the Paris Agreement. But we didn't carry through with any  follow up climate policy commitments to justify membership of the Coalition.

Australia joins the Climate Club but PM evades question of Fossil fuel expansion and export

Guardian Cartoon by Fiona Katsaukas

On Tuesday 11 July Prime Minister Anthony Albanese committed Australia to joining the 'Climate Club' while visiting Germany. 

While this sounds like a positive action there are no detailed commitments or changes required in Australia's climate policy direction, according to Prime Minister Albanese. 

Many people think this is more rhetoric rather than climate action.

The club is an initiative in 2022 of German Chancellor Olav Scholz, from the Social Democratic Party, whose ruling coalition is made up of parties from the centre-right to the Greens.

The ABC analysis article talks about the central tenets of the club: 

• Designed to help lower emissions by pressing governments to put a minimum price on carbon.
• That countries with a carbon price should tax imports from countries without one, via a Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
• The idea is that these twin policies will foster a world in which economic growth can continue, but be decoupled from carbon emissions almost completely by 2050. 

Over 61,000 heat related deaths during 2022 European summer

New research estimates over 61,000 heat related deaths in Europe in 2022. And that comes after heat alerts and other climate adaptation measures implemented after the massive death toll of 73,000 from the 2003 heatwave. 

What will the summer bring for Australia? With record temperatures being set around the world (see June climate signals and records), and ElNino formation boosting temperatures.

Meanwhile Australia is approving new thermal coal and gas, and continues fossil fuel subsidiaries to the tune of $11billion per year with no public plan to phase these subsidies out.

Will heat related deaths be at a similar level in 2023 in Europe? 

Will we see a similar number of heat related deaths in the southern hemisphere summer?

What should also be noted is that climate impacts are not gender neutral. Research has found that older women died at higher rates than men.