Opinion Surveys: Climate leadership demanded of Australian Government

Climate change action continues to be an issue of concern in national politics and debate with federal politicians being way more conservative than the general public according to several recent public opinion polls. The polls say that nearly 70 per cent of people want companies to pay for their carbon pollution through some sort of carbon pricing and that the Australian Government should take a leadership role in climate mitigation solutions.

It is perhaps one reason why conservative populist politician Clive Palmer had an inconvenient truth moment with Al Gore this week.

Even last year during the 2013 election campaign a substantial majority of people supported action on climate change with 49.2 per cent supporting to some degree the carbon pricing scheme presently in operation according to the ABC Votecompass survey. Read my analysis: Australian Public opinion on carbon pricing and climate change

Al Gore persuades Clive Palmer in an Inconvenient truth moment on climate policy

At a press conference Clive Palmer, Leader of the Palmer United Party, along with climate campaigner former US Vice President Al Gore, announced his party's policies in response to the Government's changes to carbon pricing and clean energy laws. Walking onstage with former US Vice President Al Gore, you could feel this was a momentus occasion for Clive Palmer.

"I'd like to thank him for the productive discussions today. My discussions allowed me to reconsider important considerations for all Australians and the rest of the world." Palmer announced transforming himself into the contradictory personas of both coal baron and climate warrior.

The big announcement was that the block of Palmer United Party senators would vote to abolish the present carbon price and move an amendment for the establishment of a conditional Emissions Trading Scheme with a carbon price rated as zero at the start. The carbon tax repeal is conditional on all energy price savings being passed on to consumers. The Government's Direct Action Plan and Emmissions Reduction Fund was labelled as a waste of money and would not be supported.

Palmer outlined that the PUP voting block would vote against abolition of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation which was established to loan $10 billion over 5 years to companies and organisations to help transition to clean energy through renewable and energy efficiency projects. The Climate Change Authority would also be saved, as well as support for continuing the Renewable Energy Target (RET) until at least 2016, after the next election.

Double dissolution trigger: Greens and Labor challenge Abbott on climate, clean energy

The Labor Party and Greens have defeated for a second time in the Senate a bill by Tony Abbott's Government to abolish the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. This gives a first trigger for the Government to call a double dissolution election.

"Prime Minister Abbott if you really believe that this is absolute crap and that the Clean Energy Act is going to wipe Whyalla off the map, how’s that working out?" he told the Senate.

"If you really believe that renewable energy can't deliver, then here is the double dissolution election trigger you’ve been waiting for."

"The world is starting to move, in fact parts of the world are well ahead of Australia, we’re lagging and the hour is late, so if its an election you want then bring it on." explained Senator Ludlum.

Watch Western Australian Greens Senator Scott Ludlum challenge the Abbott Government to bring on a 'globalwarming' double dissolution election.



The Clean Energy Finance Corporation was established by the Gillard Labor party in consultation with the Greens and Independant MPs in 2011 to help fund renewable energy projects through assisting private funding. As an investment catalyst, it has actually proved a successful business generating about $200million annually to aid the budget, while also helping establish clean technologies in existing businesses.

Open letter to Origin Energy on the Renewable Energy Target

Dear @originenergy, as a customer I have just contributed to put this ad on air in support of the RET in opposition to the submissions your company and of AGL Energy and Energy Australia.



I have been a good customer of Origin energy for several years buying 100% greenpower, and the purchase of my solar PV system through your solar division. In the past you have been an innovative market leader with your green electricity plans.

However, I am particularly distressed with your submission to the current Federal Government Renewable Energy Target review.

The review of the Renewable Energy Target was the proper job for the Climate Change Authority as contained in its legislative authority. This Government has chosen to ignore this legislative detail with their intention to abolish this authority through repeal of the legislation. This has still not been done and there is some doubt whether this legislative change will be made in the Senate. The government has instead chosen to setup their own review with handpicked people, like Dick Warburton, with strong biases against climate change and the importance of transitioning to renewable energy as part of Australia's commitment to reducing carbon emissions to mitigate global climate change under the UNFCCC process.

I disagree with your submission (PDF) that the LRET and SRET should be rolled back into one scheme and remove deeming. I also disagree with resetting the target to a "true 20%". This would effectively mean cutting the target from 41,000GWh (plus uncapped rooftop solar), to 23,000GWh (including rooftop solar).

Mitigating Climate Change: Kangaroos, conservation management and sustainable harvesting at NMIT?

Could NMIT provide a model of kangaroo conservation management and sustainable harvesting? Northern Melbourne Institute of TAFE (NMIT) is in financial trouble and needs to innovate and focus on it's educational strengths. I outline one modest innovative proposal which utilises the expertise from several academic and vocational disciplines and could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate mitigation through conservation management, while utilising our unique Australian food resources for a more healthy lifestyle.

The issue of how we deal with our native fauna, particularly kangaroos, has been raised by the announcement on 19 March 2014 by the Victorian Minister for Agriculture Peter Walsh that kangaroos culled under Wildlife control permits in certain areas of the state will now be supplied to the commercial pet food market. Formerly, kangaroos shot had to be buried by landowners.

Some animal welfare activists and conservationists have criticised the measure, and queried the ethical necessity for animal culls, even raising that this may impinge on the income of traditional beef and sheep farming.(Barber 2014) Over recent decades animal welfare and prevention of cruelty to animals have become important public debates. Standards for ethical treatment of animals - both wild and domesticated - have increased due to this debate, as exemplified in the public sentiment expressed over the live animal export trade.

Indian Ocean Dipole set to triple frequency of floods, bushfires and droughts

Climate change and extreme weather is likely to hit the Indian Ocean rim countries much harder over the coming century. That is the conclusion of a new study lead by CSIRO climate scientist Wenju Cai.

The research lead by Wenju Cai from CSIRO's Marine and Atmosphere Division outlines that an increase in greenhouse gases and climate change is likely to cause more extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events to occur and that this will likely triple the frequency of bushfires, floods and drought in Australia, Africa and India from one event every 17 years to one every 6 years.

The interaction between ENSO and IOD still needs much more research and study to understand. IOD events are often triggered by El Nino, but can also sometimes occur during La Nina years as well.

Dr Wenju Cai told the ABC:

"Most of our severe bushfires were preconditioned by the Indian Ocean Dipole... When a summer season is preceded by an [extreme positive] Indian Ocean Dipole our bushfires tend to be much more severe.

"Now this is in Australia, but it has global impact. [For example] in Indonesia, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole tends to cause drought. You may recall in 1997 we had a wild bushfire in Indonesia... emitting a lot of pollutants and smoke that caused health problems to many millions of people in the region and also cost lost economic activity because people couldn't go out because of the visibility problem.

"In the meantime, in eastern African countries, they experienced devastating floods, causing thousands to die... and displacement of many hundreds of thousands."

Development of El Niño in 2014

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the important cycles affecting global weather, particularly around the Pacific region, but also having indirect impacts on a global level. Changes to winds and precipitation causing floods and droughts depending upon the region. El Niño also results in increasing global average temperatures, on top of the long term trend associated with climate change.

Cost estimates in US$ for 1982-1983 El Niño
Extreme Event / Country	Cost in $millions
Flooding
Bolivia	$300
Ecuador, Northern Peru	$650
Cuba	$170
U.S. Gulf States	$1,270
Hurricanes
Tahiti	$50
Hawaii	$230
Droughts/Fires
Southern Africa	$1,000
Southern India, Sri Lanka	$150
Philippines	$450
Indonesia	$500
Australia	$2,500
Southern Peru, Western Bolivia	$240
Mexica, Central America	$600
Total Costs	$8,110 million
Source: NASA via University of California San Diego

The El Niño cycle is usually 3 to 7 years. And occasionally we'll get an extreme response, a super El Niño. The 1982-83 and 1997-1998 produced super El Niños spiked global temperatures to record levels, causing floods, drought and increasing bushfire conditions. The back to back La Nina of 2010 and 2011 was also quite strong producing Australia's wettest two year period on record and reducing global sea level by 5mm.

he 1982-1983 event has been estimated to have caused about $8.1 billion in damages and was largely unexpected without the warning and forecasting systems we have in place today.

The last Super El Niño event in 1997-1998 resulted in about 23,000 people killed as a result of ENSO linked extreme weather events and caused about $45-50 billion in losses to global agricultural output according to a Canberra Times report.

Predicting El Niño events and issuing alerts allows communities to prepare for the worst. It is essential for farmers to know the forecast for rain or drought so that crop plantings can be varied and livestock rates altered to minimise losses.

Guest Post: Rising sea levels will be too much, too fast for Florida

Within a generation or two sea level rise is going to really start to affect most coastal nations. Alreadyit is having an affect on small island nations with coral atolls being inundated and their fresh water lenses being contaminated by salt water. But developed countries will also feel the pain such as the predicament facing Miami in Florida. This is a timely article on what the future holds for Miami:

By Harold R. Wanless, University of Miami

It is amazing for me to see the very aggressive building boom underway in south Florida; on the beaches and barrier islands, throughout downtown and in the low western areas bordering the Everglades. They are building like there is no tomorrow. Unfortunately, they are right.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published its assessment of sea level rise in 2012 as part of the National Climate Assessment. Including estimates based on limited and maximum melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, it anticipated a raise of 4.1 to 6.6ft (1.25 to 2m) by 2100, reaching 2ft (0.6m) by around 2050 and 3ft (0.9m) by around 2075.

This degree of sea level rise would make nearly all the barrier islands of the world uninhabitable, inundate a major portion of the world’s deltas, upon which hundreds of millions of people live, and leave low-lying coastal zones like southeast Florida increasingly difficult to maintain infrastructure services for and increasingly vulnerable to hurricanes and storms.

Government Direct Action Climate Policy under scrutiny in Senate Estimates

During Senate estimates hearings the Abbott Government and officials of Federal Department of Environment were not able to provide even a rough estimate of how much the Direct Action climate policy would achieve of the Government's stated 5 per cent emissions reduction target on 2000 levels by 2020.

Greens Senator Scott Ludlum directed some tough questions at Senator Simon Birmingham, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Environment and officers of the Department.

"As a percentage, how much of that 5 per cent target will direct action deliver?" Ludlum asked.

"It is premature to be specific around that" responded Dr Gordon De Brouwer from the Department of the Environment. He waffled on about the scheme and the Emissions Reduction Fund still needing to be designed with adequate safeguards incorporated, "without those key features it is very hard to say what the abatement will be specifically from the features." But Dr De Brouwer was adamant the government would be able to achieve the target.

Ludlum replied "Yeah, I think Minister Hunt has used the word confident quite a bit. If you don't have those numbers, you don't know, you can't tell me what proportion of the 5 per cent. On what basis does the Minister go out everyday proclaiming how confident he is? You haven't even designed the policy yet and it is the middle of 2014."

"Senator, a lot of design work has been done...." replied Senator Simon Birmingham, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Environment.

Another question from Ludlum: "I was going to ask if you had comprehensively mapped how you were going to reach that target? But you obviously haven't..."

Autumn heatwave across south-east Australia sets new records

While there are few complaints about the super mild autumn temperatures, new temperature duration records are being set across large parts of south eastern Australia.

Professor Will Steffen has now written a report - Climate Council Seasonal Update: Abnormal Autumn 2014 - in which he details that the 24 months to April 2014 were the hottest two year period on record, and due to the abnormally warm weather in May, the 24 months to May 2014 is likely to eclipse this record. With an El Nino brewing in the Pacific we are likely to have elevated temperatures through winter and spring which will influence soil moisture and other factors involved in increasing the number of extreme fire weather days with a longer fire season in southern regions later this year.

Weather Bureau releases special climate statement - 30 May 2014

The Bureau of Meteorology has released special climate statement 49 (PDF) summarising the autumn May warmspell. A persistent blocking high in the Tasman brought the warm period, but comes on top of a trend for hotter than usual periods:

The current warm event is the latest in a sequence of prolonged or intense warm spells that have affected a large part of the continent roughly every six weeks since the end of 2012. This coincides with record-breaking or well-above-average temperatures that have persisted across Australia for the past 22 months. The 12 months ending January 2014, February 2014, March 2014 and April 2014 have all been record-warm for Australia. It is virtually certain that the 12 months ending May 2014 will also set a new high record.

The year-to-date (January to May) temperature anomaly for Australia at 31 May 2014 is expected to be near +0.95 °C. This will mean that 2014 ranks in the top five warmest starts to a year on record behind 2005 (+1.17 °C), 1998 (+1.05 °C), 2013 (+1.04 °C) and 2007 (+0.96 °C).

The continental averaged daily maximum temperature was 27.35 °C or above on each of the five days from 21 to 25 May. The previous area record after this date was 27.23 °C on 23 May 1958. Daytime average temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees above average over over a large area encompassing most of South Australia, the western half of New South Wales, northwestern Victoria, southwestern Queensland and the southern Northern Territory.

Usually with warm spells of this type in Autumn night time temperatures remain average or are cooler than normal due to cloud free nights radiating the day's energy.

Minimum temperatures for this period (Figure 2) were also above average over most of the continent, except for parts of the New South Wales tablelands and the Kimberley region in the north of Western Australia. The largest anomalies, 4 to 6 °C above average, occurred in the South Australian outback and adjacent border areas of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

Indeed, special mention is made for one night in Melbourne where the temperature climbed to 22C at 4.30am before falling:

A particularly unusual occurrence was the abnormal warmth in the Melbourne area in the early hours of the morning of 27 May, as northerly winds strengthened ahead of an approaching front. The Melbourne temperature rose to 22.1 °C around 4.30 am, which was only 0.3 °C short of the highest maximum temperature ever observed so late in the season. (It subsequently cooled below 18 °C after 6.30 am, preventing any records being set for high overnight minimum temperatures.)

With the blocking high in place bringing warmth to much of central and eastern Australia, the south west saw more cold fronts bringing rain resulting in southwestern Western Australia having its wettest May since 2005. "Pemberton experienced 23 consecutive days with rainfall from 7 to 29 May, a May record, and numerous other sites in the region had 20 to 22 days with rainfall during this period." said the BOM statement.

Some of the records broken

• Sydney - 19 consecutive days of 22 °C or above from 10 to 28 May (previous record of 9 days from 1 to 9 May 1978 and 1 to 9 May 2007).
  
• Sydney - 25 days for most consecutive days of 20 °C or above.
  
• Adelaide - 16 days for most consecutive days of 20 °C or above.
  
• Melbourne - 13 days for most consecutive days of 20 °C or above.
  
• Wilsons Promontory - 6 consecutive days of 20 °C or above. (No previous instance in May of a spell of more than 3 consecutive days of 20 °C or above, and only one 7 day spell in April in 1970)
  
• Victoria - 9 consecutive days from 14 to 22 May with a statewide mean maximum above 20 °C, matching the record set from 1 to 9 May 1972.
  
• Campania (Tas) - 24.1 °C observed on 15 May, highest maximum temperature so late in the season for any Tasmania site.
  
• Ouyen (Vic) - 27.4 °C on 26 May, highest maximum temperature so late in the season for Victoria.
  
• Birdsville (Qld) reached 34.7 °C highest maximum temperature of the event outside the tropics.
  
• Hobart - 23.9 on 15 May highest maximum temp on same or later day (previous 22.6 16/5/1947)
  
• Hobart - 14.9 on 19 May highest minimum on same or later day (previous 14.5 (24/5/2000,
  31/5/1976)
  
• Canberra - 21.7 on 26 May highest maximum temp on same or later day (previous 20.1 (29/5/1954, 3 and 4/6/1957)
  

25 May 2014:

Sydney has just posted its longest Autumn warm spell for May going back to records which started in 1910. Saturday was the 14th day in May where the maximum temperature exceeded 22 degrees smashing the old record of 6 days. Average maximum temperatures will also beat the existing record for May - 22.7 degrees set in 1958 - according to Ben Domensino, a senior meteorologist at Weatherzone as reported by the Sydney Morning Herald. Melbourne also has experienced abnormally mild temperatures with May 2014 exceeding May 1972 for the most days with temperatures over 20 degrees.

Canberra has also exceeded a 67-year-old record for a late-autumn heatwave last Thursday, when temperatures passed 17 degrees for the 11th consecutive day. Weatherzone meteorologist Max Gonzalez said the city had been experiencing above average day time temperatures and cooler than average nocturnal temperatures, "The average overnight temperature in Canberra this month has been 1.5 degrees which is 1.6 below the usual average," he said. "But during the day we’re averaging temperatures of 16.8 which is 1.2 degrees warmer than the monthly average." reported the Sydney Morning Herald.

The warmer than usual weather has also caused algae blooms in Lake Burley Griffin and Lake Tuggeranong forcing there closure for swimming. Adelaide's top of 27.4 degrees was that city's warmest on record this late in the season, while Hobart's 23.9 degrees on Thursday was that city's warmest so deep into autumn. Both cities' records go back more than a century, said Blair Trewin, a senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology as reported by the Age.

we're in the middle of #sydney's longest #heatwave. It might be pleasant but it's extreme for this time of year. pic.twitter.com/UTEPhC0I8L

— Sarah (@sarahinscience) May 25, 2014

See Scorcher.org.au for Australian heatwave distribution and data for recent and past heatwaves events for individual observation sites. Dr Sarah Perkins explains in detail on her blog about heatwaves, and finding the human signal in them.

The Snowy Mountains skifields are also decidedly still green even though the start of the ski season is fast approaching on the June Queens birthday weekend. Temperatures at most ski resorts are still above zero, still too warm to even start the snowmaking machines. Australia’s alpine zones have been identified as one of six key regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change. There has already been a substantial reduction in snow, and by the end of this century it is projected most snow will be gone. This will have a large affect on the shrinking size of the alpine ecosystems, not to mention ski resort tourism.

Increased temperatures during this Autumn heatwave may have implications for later in the year according to Climate scientist Dr Sarah perkins, as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald. Raised temperatures increase plant growth adding to fuel loads, but also help to dry out soils raising the prospect for more intense fires and droughts later in the year if dry conditions persist. Signs of an impending El Nino may also contribute to drought and a more intense and lengthy bushfire season in the later part of 2014. There are several signs the El Nino may match the strenth and intensity of the 1997/1998 El Nino.

Global Sea Surface Temps: Extraordinary +1.25 C Anomaly as #ElNino Tightens Grip on Pacific http://t.co/TcqQ7saEG9 pic.twitter.com/LwrmJxazjF

— Frere Tak (@takvera) May 25, 2014

NOAA: April tied with 2010 as hottest on record

This comes as NOAA announced that April 2014 tied with 2010 as the hottest April on record. According to NOAA:

The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) higher than the 20th century average. This also ties with April 2010 as the seventh highest departure from average among all months in the period of record, which dates back to January 1880. The record highest departure is 0.86°C (1.55°F) above average, set in February 1998, a month when El Niño conditions had been present for nearly a year. Neither El Niño nor La Niña have been present in the east central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the past two years; however, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the chance of El Niño emerging increases for the remainder of 2014, exceeding 65 percent during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

The NOAA report also noted that average temperatures for Australia in April were high:

Australia observed its seventh highest average April temperature since records began in 1910, at 1.12°C (2.02°F) higher than the 1961–90 average. The average minimum temperature was fourth highest for April, at 1.32°C (2.38°F) above average, with Queensland setting a new record high monthly minimum for the state.