Donald Trump has won the US presidency for a second non-consecutive term. Plus Republicans have also won control of the Senate. Counting is still under way for the House of Representatives but it is likely the Republicans may have a majority. The Supreme Court has a 6:3 conservative majority. With few checks and balances a Trump administration will have free reign.
Is this bad? Yes. According to the Guardian, "The impact of Donald Trump enacting the climate policies of the rightwing Project 2025 would result in billions of tonnes of extra carbon pollution, wrecking the US’s climate targets, as well as wiping out clean energy investments and more than a million jobs, a new analysis finds."
Last week on the 16-17 November Pacific Nation leaders met under the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum and and issued the 2023 APEC Leaders’ Golden Gate Declaration. President Biden (USA), President Xi (China), Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (Australia) were all there.
Of greater importance has been the ongoing dialogue between US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and China Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua who met in early November in California, following by bilateral discussion by Presidents Biden and Xi before APEC.
Dialogue and actions by USA and China are key for setting ambition at the United Nations Climate conference COP28 in Dubai.
China's emissions are likely to fall in 2024, according to analysis published at Carbon Brief.
The USA wins the Colossal Fossil COP27 award for continuing to block and delay the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund in the negotiations. This needs to be called out loudly. Vulnerable countries are already experiencing high levels of climate disasters that affect economic recovery. This problem is only growing. A Loss and Damage fund is greatly needed to cope with escalating damages from heatwaves and drought, torrential rain and flood events, cyclones, and the long slow impact of sea level rise.
Dishonourable mentions to Russia for using COP27 for fossil fuel and nuclear lobbying, and to Bolsanaro's Brazil and the damage done with escalating emissions and levels of deforestation of the Amazon.
G20 Leaders Plant Mangroves In Bali Photo via PM Albanese via twitter
So what did the G20 meeting say on climate and how will it affect the UN Climate Change conference COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt?
"Mindful of our leadership role, we reaffirm our steadfast commitments, in pursuit of the objective of UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) to tackle climate change by strengthening the full and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and its temperature goal," a declaration issued at the end of the meeting said.
The declaration maintains the 1.5C temperature goal.
There was also an important bilateral meeting between Biden and Xi that cleared blockages for climate co-operation.
And a $20 billion financing package for Indonesia to phase out coal and increase renewables as part of it's energy transition and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Australia -Europe joint statement which in point 9 affirmed "deeply committed to full implementation of the Paris Agreement, noting the urgency to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees through rapid, deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in this decade and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and will spare no effort to bring about ambitious action by all members of the international community."
The USA is still delaying a Loss and Damages Facility, and are being called out on addressing the responsibility for the huge historic contribution of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Egyptian Presidency had allocated today, November 11, as Decarbonization Day. But really it turned out to be a Fossil of the day Bonanza. So many countries won a Fossil award today: USA, Russia, Egypt and United Arab Emirates. Read on...
I know from attending online the Advamcing the Global Methane Pledge, which included the CEO of Total Energies, gas was being marketed as a transition fuel to be used for decades and the Global Methane Pledge an excuse to seek financial subsidies to do what these companies already should be doing.
Australia wins Colossal Fossil Award of COP26 - Jo Dodds accepts award
Loss and damage is very real even for first world people in Australia. After the Black Summer bushfires there are still people living in tents two years later, while a bushfire recovery fund remains entirely unspent. This is the same arrogance that Australia has treated our first nation people since invasion and colonisation, and our Pacific neighbours who have pleaded for Australia to step up on climate action, phase out of coal, and fund loss and damage in our region.
This is Australia's shame, especially disturbing given the abundant renewable energy resources, and the deep knowledge of indigenous people from 60,000 to 80,000 years of experience of land management and culture. Our First Nation peoples have already experienced climate change and sea level change on our continent, and have embedded knowledge of these changes within dreamtime stories that can provide insight to transition.
Jo Dodds, President of Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action, accepted the award for Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor.
Launch of the Fossil Fueled Five Report at Panda Hub at COP26
A new report investigates the role of 5 western developed countries, their current climate plans and their current fossil fuel expansion plans.
The Fossil Fueled Five report comes at a critical time as there is gowing discussion at UN Climate conferences and generally in the community that fossil fuel production needs to be reigned in as demonstrated by the recent Production Gap Report, and the UN Environment Program Emissions Gap Report.
This report was produced by the University of Sussex and conducted in cooperation with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative and key regional partners in each of the 5 countries – Uplift (UK), Oil Change International (USA), Greenpeace (Norway), The Australia Institute (Australia) and Stand.earth (Canada).
Watch the launch (below) which features Canadian environmental activist Tzeporah Berman, Freddie Daley from the University of Sussex, Tessa Khan, Lawyer, Founder & Director, Uplift UK, Colin Rees with Oil Change International, a young FoE Norway activist, and Richie Merzian from the Australia Institute.
China and US Climate Envoys take the stage at COP26 announcing Joint Declaration
There has been a lot of pressure on China, with the lack of presence of President Xi Jingping at the Leaders summit last week. The US called out China for the lack of this presence.
But today Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry stunned observers by announcing the China-US Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s.
This adds to the feeling that although the outcome of COP26 may be mixed, lacking in ambition in some areas according to the Draft cover text, and still not resolving the Emissions Gap or Production Gap, there is still substantial movement going forward.
As background, China only offered a very minor update to it's NDC commitment at COP26.
But this was after it had increased ambition at the Biden summit in April which included commitment to join the Kigali Amendment, strengthen control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and phase down coal consumption.
In September China committed to stop funding overseas coal projects at the UN General Assembly. September.
Even though President Xi did not attend COP26, China does have a substantial delegation at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, COP26.
On Wednesday the USA and China announced their declaration, and outlined what actions both countries would be taking together into the 2020s. This will give a boost to those negotiators arguing for more ambition in the draft textxs for the final COP decision on mitigation, adaptation, Common timeframes and finance.
Where Australia stands on road transport climate policy Via Australia Institute
The release of the Australian Government's 'Future Fuels Strategy' on the eve of Transport Day of the UN Climate Conference, with little substance to increase Electric Vehicles takeup ensured Australia of a Fossil of the Day. This is Australia's 4th Fossil award of COP26.
The United States received the first Fossil award of the day for failing to take basic steps to halt fossil fuel production. Serbia received a third place award for giving grace to big polluters.
The fires are growing more intense, burning far greater areas than we have previously experienced. Climate change factors are pushing widfires to become mega-fires. Fires that are near impossible to effectively control. Forest systems that have rarely if ever, seen fire, are now burning.
Bushfires sirvivors from Australia, Canada, USA and Turkey held a press conference outside the Australian Pavilion at #COP26 on Monday, where they shared their stories of heartbreak and loss.
Those who lost everything in the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires in Australia, and then the fires that followed in California, Turkey and Canada, know exactly what’s at stake.
The Climate Council pulled together these people to share their stories outside the Australian Pavillion. All the participants called for world leaders and decision makers at COP26 to commit to strong emission reductions this decade.
Otherwise, we risk experiencing Black Summer, after Black Summer, after Black Summer.
We hear so much about the new ambition by the USA. They have rejoined the Coalition of High ambition, increased climate finance, initiated the Global Methane Pledge, supported the Glasgow Declaration on Forests and land use but there are undercurrents such as ‘AIM for Climate’ (AIM4C) initiative that support industrial agriculture.
France too seems full of ambition, but the undertow is present there as well with a push for the integration of fossil gas and nuclear as 'sustainable' energies in the EU taxonomy.
International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) received a fossil award for... well being mostly fossils and pushing a fossil fuel agenda including on carbon markets. IETA, which represents fossil fuel companies such as Chevron, Shell and BP has a delegation over 100-strong at COP26 according to the participant list.
Here is a quick summary in graphic and point form where the main countries line up on climate commitments at the end of the Climate leaders summit organised by USA President Joe Biden in his first 100 days of leadership:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison made:
no change in Australia's low targets.
no commitment to net zero by 2050 target.
produced meaningless statistics that don't stack up
slagged off the work of other countries
talked up hydrogen without explaining much of this will be blue hydrogen from coal and gas
thanked some of Australia's highest emitting companies, part of the problem
tried to carve out emissions from our fossil fuel exports (Australia is 3rd largest carbon exporter)
talked up the hired help: Allan Finkel and his contribution (including to the gas led recovery)
It's been five years since the UNFCCC climate conference in Paris in 2015. Five years of annual conferences. Five years of Fossil of the Day awards at those conferences. The year of pandemic has thrown a curve ball to annual negotiations with COP26 due to be held in Gasgow right now delayed to 2021.
Nations have continued to push ambition even during this pandemic year. Co-convened by the United Nations, the United Kingdom and France, and in partnership with Chile and Italy, have decided to hold a Climate Ambition Summit, a digital event.
The Climate Action Network provided its own alternative Fossil of the 5 years special event too.
Official citation
11 December 2020: Five years after the Paris Agreement, countries continue to outdo each other at being best in doing the worst to fight the climate crisis. But some are always better than others (hint: surprise they haven’t been invited to the Paris Agreement Birthday Party).
Through a fair and democratic voting process (that required no recounts), Climate Action Network, the world’s largest network of 1,300 civil society organisations working on climate change in over 130 countries, chose the USA as the overall winner of the Colossal Fossil of Five Years to mark the 5th Anniversary of the Paris Agreement. USA also won a second Fossil Award for Not Providing Finance and Support. Australia won a Fossil Award for Not Honoring the 1.5°C Commitment, and Brazil won two Fossil Awards for Not Protecting People from Climate Impacts and Not Listening to the People and Shrinking Civic Space.
USA: Colossal Fossil of Five Years
Let’s be honest, the USA has never been the loudest cheerleader for climate action. In some ways President Trump simply said the quiet parts aloud. ‘America First’ has always been the north star guiding the US’ official line in international climate talks, like when verbally bulldozing proposals for climate compensation and finance for Loss and Damage to vulnerable countries, arm-twisting poorer nations into accepting weak climate targets from rich countries and flexing their diplomatic muscle to break or make deals, all the while with handshakes and smiles. Until….2016.
A Colossal Fossil of Five Years can never capture the depths of ineptitude and damage of the Trump years: from amplifying climate denialism, to dismantling domestic environmental policies to undermining progress in multilateral spaces like the UNFCCC, the IPCC, the G20 & G7 and the GCF.
USA: Fossil for Not Providing Finance and Support
In the Trump years, the USA has been particularly stingy on finance for climate action. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement was bad enough but the USA used its bully pulpit to obstruct finance to developing countries. By ceasing all finance to the Green Climate Fund (inspiring other countries like Australia) it deprived millions of people in poor countries critical resources to adapt to the climate crisis. Funding to the IPCC was also summarily halted, unsurprisingly some might say, by an anti-science administration.
So when it comes to climate change, ‘America First’ only means the USA’s outsized lead as the largest historical carbon emitter. To be clear, this is not a fossil award to the American people. We salute them for voting out a climate denier! Polls consistently show Americans want a climate-safe future and President-elect Biden must act on this mandate. He must take a seat at the international table and ensure the US does its fairshare on cutting its domestic emissions drastically by 2030 and substantially increasing international finance. Rejoining the Paris Agreement and recommitting money to the Green Climate Fund will be the starting steps in this new journey. It is time for the wealthiest nation to put the planet and all its people first.
Australia: Fossil for Not Honoring the 1.5°C Commitment
Before Scott Morrison became Australian Prime Minister, he once brandished a lump of coal in parliament. That was in 2017, when he accused his opponents of having a “pathological fear of coal”. A few short years later, the only pathological behaviour remains his government’s ongoing infatuation with fossil fuels when the rest of the world has moved on. As the largest exporter of coal and gas, Australia’s federal government has done virtually nothing over the past five years to tackle the climate emergency. The government's woefully inadequate 2030 Paris Agreement target is in line with a catastrophic 3°C rise. And it has tried to cheat by using carryover credits from the Kyoto Protocol to meet around half of it. The Australian government has refused to set a national long term target (net zero by 2050)despite every State and Territory of Australia having now set a long term net zero climate target. Australia’s current emission reduction trend will reach net-zero in 300 years! And to top it all, Australia has withdrawn funding entirely from the Green Climate Fund.
The world watched swathes of Australia's bush burn last summer contributing to significant biodiversity loss and impacting the most vulnerable people. Besides stinking up the planet, Australia appears to be reneging on acommitment to net zero emissions made to Pacific Island Neighbours in October 2019. How does Australia face its Pacific Island neighbours, many of whom will be displaced in the next two-to-three decades unless we scale up efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C? Australia must get sensible fast otherwise the Morrsion government is staring at a dark legacy of climate inaction. Will future generations have to view plastic replicas of the Great Barrier Reef in a museum of climate horrors alongside stuffed mounts of the critically endangered Mountain Pygmy Possum?
Brazil: Fossil for Not Protecting People from Climate Impacts
An alarming climate tipping point could happen much sooner than expected when the dense, green canopy of the Amazon rainforest turns into a dry open savannah, an irreversible process that is being hastened by increasing fires and logging. The policies of “Chainsaw” Bolsonaro have ensured that the ‘"Cooler of the Planet"’ is now a scarred, choking mess. This year’s fires are among the worst in ten years with a 14% increase in fires compared to the already catastrophic figures from last year. The world’s largest tropical wetland, the Pantanal, was consumed by flames this year, wrecking the lives of Indigineous communities there and all its biodiversity. Things look grim in Brazil as Bolsonaro offers concessions to agribusiness and mining magnates, turns his back on Indigenous communities and repeatedly denies climate change. Just to prove the point, Brazil has pledged over 70% of funding under its existing energy plan to fossil fuels and has extended subsidies to offshore oil exploitation until 2040!
Brazil: Fossil for Shrinking Civil Space
Despite tough competition from Russia, Brazil was voted for a fossil for its escalating crackdown on civil society groups resisting its regressive policies and fighting for the rights of Indigenous communities. A leaked document shows Brazil’s military plans to control “100% of NGOs working in the Amazon” and is set to advance policies to starve NGOs of funding. It is no wonder that Brazil ranks number three in the world for the murder of environmental defenders.
"Civil society, despite being threatened in Brazil, must strengthen itself to pressure, nationally and internationally, for effective emission reduction measures, to preserve our forests and protect Indigenous Peoples", said Nayara Castiglioni Amaral, general coordinator of Engajamundo, a Brazilian youth organization.
Watch the whole ceremony:
About the fossils: The Fossil of the Day awards were first presented at the climate talks in 1999, in Bonn, initiated by the German NGO Forum. During United Nations climate change negotiations (www.unfccc.int), members of the Climate Action Network (CAN), vote for countries judged to have done their 'best' to block progress in the negotiations in the last days of talks.
About CAN: The Climate Action Network (CAN) is a global network of over 1,300 Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in more than 120 countries working to promote government and individual action to limit human0induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels. www.climatenetwork.org
New research from the Harvard School of Public Health highlights a possible causal link between PM2.5 particulate pollution and Covid19 deaths.
That is, areas in the US with higher levels of PM2.5 particulate pollution have statistically significant higher rate of Covid19 deaths.
The aggregated data strongly suggests a link, while the researchers suggest more research is needed down to the individual patient medical data level to positively confirm the link.
On Monday December 9, Australia picked up it's third Fossil of the Day award at this United Nationas climate conference COP25 meeting in Madrid.
This award was goven to the USA and Australia for not contributing to the Green Climate Fund on Fonance Day at the conference. Both USA and Australia have stopped pledging any money to the Fund which allocates money for projects in developing countries for both mitigation and adaptation.
Today’s fossil award goes to the United States (US) yet again! Now the USA and Australia are tied in the number of Fossil awards on the scoreboard at COP25.
The official Award citation
🇺🇸 US for blocking financial support to vulnerable communities receiving the blow of the #ClimateEmergency
Richest Country In The World reiterated that they will not support #lossanddamage #finance
This time for blocking financial support to vulnerable communities receiving the blow of climate change - which the US is disproportionately responsible for creating.
At the UN Climate Conference on Thursday evening, December 5, it was a bit of both sides of the ledger day for Australia. The country was mentioned in brackets with Japan for focussing on insurance in the Fossil citation for USA and Russia, but also part of the Ray of the Day citation on standing up for Human Rights clauses in Article 6 on carbon markets.
The Official #FossiloftheDay and #RayofTheDay citations December 5 at #COP25:
1st 🇺🇸🇷🇺 US & Russia for pushing for weak #LossandDamage outcome
Special mention:
🇯🇵Japan and 🇦🇺 Australia for focusing on insurance
⭐Ray of the Day
Canada, Colombia, Vanuatu, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Switzerland - push for HR in #Article6
The Australian Ambassador for the Environment, Patrick Suckling, appeared on a panel for a US government side-event pushing clean coal technologies as climate solutions. The session on Monday 10 December was called: "U.S. Innovative Technologies Spur Economic Dynamism - Promoting innovative approaches".
One must ask was Ambassador Suckling's presence sanctioned at Ministerial level? His attendance on the panel is hardly good diplomacy for Australia, even given the Liberal Government support for coal and weak climate targets and climate policy.
After about 9 minutes the first speaker was disrupted and youth and civil society delegates unfurled a banner and made their own testimonies on the disruptive and dangerous nature of coal for health and climate.
They chanted "Keep it in the ground" and "Shame on you", before leaving the session. After they left, there were very few people to listen to the myths being spouted of clean coal.
Eleanor Roosevelt would be turning in her grave at the current US Administration antics at COP24.
Yes, the USA picks up today's Fossil award for their arguments on excluding mention of human rights in the Paris rulebook, when they are specifically mentioned in the preamble of the Paris Agreement.
And the USA has chosen to follow through by stepping up and challenging the inclusion of a reference to the preamble, saying it was attempting to operationalize something that by definition wasn’t operational.