Sea Dumping bill: Fossil Fuel grand coalition of Labor, Liberal & Nationals pass carbon capture and storage, throwing a lifeline to Fossil Gas expansion

On Monday 13 November a grand coalition of fossil fuel supporting parties: Labor Liberals and Nationals, voted to pass the Sea Dumping Bill without amendment. This is a loophole in the Safeguard Mechanism allowing the Fossil Fuel companies to open up new Fossil Gas projects and putting Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targets in jeopardy.

Labor has pushed this bill through - Environment Protection (Sea Dumping) Amendment (Using New Technologies to Fight Climate Change) Bill 2023 - rather than enhance the Water Trigger in the existing Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (an election promise), or to add a climate trigger to that Act. Anthony Albanese even proposed a Climate Trigger amendment bill in 2005.

USA-China Glasgow Declaration at COP26 maintains ambition on CO2 and methane

China and US Climate Envoys take the stage at COP26 announcing Joint Declaration

There has been a lot of pressure on China, with the lack of presence of President Xi Jingping at the Leaders summit last week. The US called out China for the lack of this presence. 

But today Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry stunned observers by announcing the China-US Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s. 

This adds to the feeling that although the outcome of COP26 may be mixed, lacking in ambition in some areas according to the Draft cover text, and still not resolving the Emissions Gap or Production Gap, there is still substantial movement going forward.

As background, China only offered a very minor update to it's NDC commitment at COP26. 

But this was after it had increased ambition at the Biden summit in April which included commitment to  join the Kigali Amendment, strengthen control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and phase down coal consumption.

In September China committed to stop funding overseas coal projects at the UN General Assembly. September. 

Even though President Xi did not attend COP26, China does have a substantial delegation at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, COP26. 

On Wednesday the USA and China announced their declaration, and outlined what actions both countries would be taking together into the 2020s. This will give a boost to those negotiators arguing for more ambition in the draft textxs for the final COP decision on mitigation, adaptation, Common timeframes and finance.

UNEP Emissions Gap: planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020

The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C. 

Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target. 

Australia also falling short on our fair share of climate finance.

On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge: 

"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C." 

Guest Post: Why our carbon emission policies don't work on air travel

Just came across this post from the Conversation from July 2018. It argues that there are two possibilities to reduce aviation emissions as part of an across the board reduction in Australian emissions.

Firstly, and given the difficulty of technological change, this will require that people fly less.

The second option is to be much more aggressive in reducing emissions in another sector, say electricity, where known solutions are far more viable and can be done relatively quickly.

"Airline emissions are likely to remain a difficult problem, but one that needs to be tackled if we’re to stay within habitable climate limits." the article concludes.

I would add that we need to consider demand management of flying through either taxing frequent flyers or using a personal carbon budget allowance system, both of which the airline and airport industry will strongly argue against but are far more equitable for constraining aviation demand. See Alice Bows Larkin assessment in the December 2014 research paper: All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy.

Aviation Emissions and Consultation on the Melbourne Airport Masterplan

Last night I attended the last public consultation on the Melbourne Airport Masterplan which involves substantial expansion of the terminals, roads and a future 2nd east-west runway. And complete silence on aviation emissions, except when I pushed the Environment Manger to reluctantly concede this impact.

Coral reef ecosystems acidifying 3 times faster than open ocean

New research shows that the rate of ocean acidification in coral reef ecosystems is more than three times faster than in the open ocean, much more than previously thought. This has big implications for reef ecosystems around the globe suffering under multiple stressers of increased sea surface temperatures, nutrient and other pollution and commercial fishing pressures.

Biogeochemist researchers from Southern Cross University Led by recent graduate Dr Tyler Cyronak detailed this new insight in a study published in Geophysical Research Letters titled Enhanced coral reef acidification driven by regional biogeochemical feedbacks.

Ocean acidification is well documented in open waters. Cold waters like in the southern ocean can more readily absorb carbon dioxide, so ocean acidification was thought to be proceeding more rapidly in marine ecosystems in cooler waters (see my 2007 article: Scientists say Ocean Acidity Increasing at Faster Rate)

This new research highlights that coral reef waters are also rapidly acidifying. This research examined studies done in coral reefs since the 1960s and found that the rate of acidification in coral reef ecosystems was more than three times faster than in the open ocean.

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 19 percent says Australia's Climate Change Authority

The Australian Climate change Authority has released its final assessment on what Australia's climate emissions reduction target should be. They say that the global conditions have clearly been met for Australia increasing emissions reduction from 5 per cent on 2000 levels to 19 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020.

In 2009 the Australian Government under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gave an unconditional guarantee of a 5 per cent target to the Copenhagen UN Climate Change conference. This was part of a range of 5 to 25 per cent with specific conditions attached for increasing the target past 5 per cent. Australia's formal target needs to be advised by 30 April 2014, although governments can strengthen their targets at any time. This target and the conditional range had bipartisan support: Both Labor and the Liberal and National Parties supported this international undertaking.

Bernie Fraser, the chair of the Climate Change Authority, said during the press conference:

"The five percent minimum isn't credible in terms of the task that has to be done and the time frame to stick to the 2020 target of a minimum of 5 per cent would, within the framework of the present global budget, Australia's share of that global budget, would impose a virtually impossible task of catching up, making up that lost ground and getting to the end result in the time available.

ExClimate: Experiment shows coral reefs in peril in a high CO2 world

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg takes us through and explains a controlled experiment his Institute is conducting in coral reef ecosystem reaction to various temperature and carbon dioxide environments.

Hoegh-Guldberg is Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland and an important authority on tropical marine biology, coral reef ecosystems and climate change.

He argues that Coral Reef ecosystems have already changed significantly from pre-industrial times, and will change even further as human carbon emissions increase in the atmosphere with many species likely to be pushed to extinction due to heat stress and ocean acidification from anthropogenic climate change.

ExClimate: CO2 Passing 400 parts per million, a comparison with the Pliocene

The Pliocene period, 3 to 5.3 million years ago, was the last time CO2 was at 400ppm. Investigate what the temperatures were during this time period and compare them to today. Using your knowledge from the course so far, what could explain the changes?

2013 was the first time planet Earth passed 400ppm carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the Pliocene perod. Instruments at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii have been measuring atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases for over 50 years. Other sites like CSIRO's Cape Grim observatory in Tasmania and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) at Baring Head Station near Wellington also take baseline measurements of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

The Keeling curve shows the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide trend and is one of the most well known climate graphs. It was named after Charles Keeling from the Scripps Institute for Oceanography who started measuring CO2 at Mauna Loa in 1958 and continued up to his death in 2005. The graph clearly shows the northern hemisphere season cycle of carbon dioxide as part of the biological seasonal processes as CO2 is taken up by vegetation in Spring and Summer, then expired in Autumn and Winter, but the long term trend has been a gradual rising of CO2 by about 2ppm per year.

The significance of reaching 400ppm is that the planet has not seen this level of carbon dioxide for 3 to 5 million years, in the Pliocene Period. It was a warmer world then. By examining this geological period we can gain some insight on what we might expect to happen to temperatures, sea levels, the impact on ice sheets, and some signs of how our climate might change later this century and further into the future.

Methane and CO2 in thawing Arctic permafrost a climate tipping point

A new report on permafrost slowly thawing in the Arctic creating methane and carbon dioxide emissions highlights an approaching dangerous climate tipping point. There is a huge amount of organic matter frozen in permafrost, estimated to contain 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. And it is starting to melt. With no way to stop it except indirectly through us reducing the rate of global warming by reducing our own emissions.

"The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost," said lead author Kevin Schaefer, from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

"Anthropogenic emissions' targets in the climate change treaty need to account for these emissions or we risk overshooting the 2°C maximum warming target," he added.

Watch this youtube interview with Lead author Professor Kevin Schaefer, Research Scientist at the University of Colorado being interviewed at the climate talks in Doha:

The report - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (PDF) - was published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and launched at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Doha on November 27. (See media release)

Plant Carbon sequestration capacity in a high CO2 world overestimated

With climate change stimulating plant growth due to elevated CO2 concentrations climate models calculated this would also stimulate uptake and sequestration of carbon. But a new long term (13 year) study looking at plant biomass growth in a high CO2 environment with Nitrogen nutrients indicates that plants also require enriched soil nitrogen to escalate uptake and sequestration of carbon from elevated CO2. Soil nitrogen just cannot be increased on a widespread basis.

Related: Rising atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels threaten crop yields and food security

Forest soil carbon release a vicious Global Warming feedback loop say researchers

Global warming is likely to accelerate release of forest soil carbon say researchers. This is another climate feedback loop. Rising temperatures are likely to accelerate forest soil carbon decomposition leading to more CO2 released into the atmosphere, compounding global warming. Rather than these forests acting as a carbon sink, warmer temperatures may make them a major source of greenhouse gas emissions further contributing to global warming warn the researchers.

"Our results suggest that large stores of carbon that built up over the last century as forests recovered will erode with rising temperatures," said Susan Trumbore of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and University of California at Irvine (UCI), who led the research team.

Ocean acidification increasing at unprecedented rate not seen in last 300 million years

In a new study marine scientists warn that the rate of ocean acidification presently occurring is unprecedented in the last 300 million years. This is due to dissolving carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, much of which human activity has contributed over the last 200 years through the use of fossil fuels. The extent of the acidification and rate of acidification enhances the prospect for a mass marine extinction event this century.

Related: Dec 2011 - Ocean acidification warning to Durban climate negotiators to act on reducing CO2 emissions | June 2011 - Oceans at high risk of unprecedented Marine extinction scientists warn | April 2010 - Paleo-perspectives on ocean acidification - marine ecosystems under threat | Feb 2010 - Marine Extinction looms with Ocean Acidification increasing

Scientific breakthrough: Remove CO2 from pollution and atmosphere for alternate fuel

An improved method of removing carbon dioxide (CO2) cheaply from industrial smoketacks and even scrubbing the air has been discovered which may help in stabilising climate and reducing carbon emissions. Resolving the huge problem of climate change and global warming is going to take significant action on many levels. This new technology, if it can be rapidly developed and commercialised, may prove extremely useful in reducing carbon emissions and ultimately helping our society to become carbon negative. But the scientists have gone a further step and propose turning the captured carbon dioxide into an alternate stable fuel called renewable methanol to assist in resolving the peak oil petroleum resource depletion problem.

The carbon economy of logging native forests and CO2 reduction

An interesting seminar was held at the Australian National University on November 10, 2011 on logging of native forests and the timeframe for dealing with CO2 emissions for climate policy. The seminar was given by Dr Judith Ajani, an economist at the ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society and the author of The Forest Wars (MUP 2007). She examines both sides of the debate regarding logging of native forests and whether native forests should be used for bioenergy or biodiversity.

CO2 Supply chain study recommends carbon price at point of extraction

An in depth study of the CO2 supply chain by scientists argues that enacting carbon pricing mechanisms at the point of extraction could be efficient and avoid the relocation of industries that could result from regulation at the point of combustion.

Most of Australia's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions comes from the export of fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. But because we export this, the CO2 emissions are counted against the country where it is combusted, even though much of it may be used in the manufacture of goods imported back into Australia.

Record increase in Greenhouse gas emissions for 2010

Greenhouse gases increased 6 per cent during 2010, one of the largest annual increases on record according to the US Department of Energy. In 2010 about 512 million metric tonnes more of carbon was emitted to the atmosphere than in 2009. Total emissions for 2010 were 30.6 Gigatonnes, 5% higher than the previous record year in 2008, according to an International Energy Agency report in June 2011.

The latest figures put global emissions on track with the worst case projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report.

Figure 1: IEA global human CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuels estimates vs. IPCC SRES scenario projections. The IPCC Scenarios are based on observed CO2 emissions until 2000, at which point the projections take effect.

Forests play a major role as carbon sink say scientists

The world's forests remove over one quarter of current annual human carbon emissions from the atmosphere each year, the equivalent of about 2.4 billion tonnes of carbon according to the latest published scientific research. An international team of scientists, including from the US Forests Service and the Australian CSIRO, have quantified the greenhouse gas carbon sink provided by the world's tropical, temperate and boreal forests.

"This is really a timely breakthrough with which we can now clearly demonstrate how forests and changes in landscape such as wildfire or forest regrowth impact the removal or release of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)," says Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO co-author of the paper: A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests. "What this research tells us is that forests play a much larger role as carbon sinks as a result of tree growth and forest expansion."

Afforestation no substitute for reducing CO2 emissions

A new scientific study published in Nature Geoscience says that major afforestation will have little impact on slowing global warming and that "afforestation is not a substitute for reduced greenhouse-gas emissions".

Cape Grim Greenhouse gas website launched by CSIRO

The CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology have launched a website showing the monthly data for greenhouse gases measured at the windswept Cape Grim Station located in the path of the roaring forties on the west coast of Tasmania. Cape Grim is one of three important baseline atmospheric stations for measuring background greenhouse gases, the other two being Mauna Loa in the middle of the Pacific and Alert Weather Station on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic. About 15 other stations around the world also collect and track atmospheric emissions data.