Netherlands parliament increases climate targets: 25 percent by 2020, 55 percent by 2030

The Netherlands parliament, in a non-binding vote, decided to increase their countries emission reduction targets to 25 percent by 2020 and 55 percent by 2030. This will almost certainly require the shut down of the 5 remaining coal fired power stations to achieve these targets.

These targets align the Netherlands with the temperature goals articulated in the Paris Agreement that were formulated and agreed to at COP21 last year in Paris.

During 2015 five coal fired power stations were closed down, however 3 of the 5 remaining power stations were new plants that had only come on line in 2015. These new power stations were built by Germany's E.ON and RWE, and France's Engie at a cost of 5.5 billion euros. These are now looking to be stranded assets.

The Netherlands had a 5 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions during 2015 and coal fired power has been blamed for this increase in emissions.

According to Reuters:

Dutch carbon dioxide emissions were 2 percent higher in 2015 than in 1990, mostly due to the increase in coal-powered generation.

Overall greenhouse gas emissions were 12 percent lower in 2015 than in 1990, as use of methane, nitrous oxide and fluorine containing gases have all been sharply reduced.

The vote ocurred in the Dutch parliament on the night of 22 September 2016. Both Liberal and Labour parties say they will now push for speedy implementation of the motion. The Labour party is part of the centre right coalition government but backed the opposition parties for this motion.

The Dutch government has been under pressure from citizens to step up climate action. In the Urgenda case, some 900 citizens took their government to court and won arguing for the Dutch government to have climate policies in place that were in keeping with the best climate science advice with emission reduction targets of 25 percent by 2020.

The Dutch coalition Government had initiated an appeal of the judgement, while preparing a climate package for early November. It now seems that appeal may not be necessary.

Voters in the Netherlands will head to the polls in March 2016. There are fears Geert Wilders’ far-right, populist and anti-immigrant Freedom Party may make major electoral inroads, and attempt to wind back renewable energy and climate policies.

Above average heat has continued during September in the Netherlands. The month is forecast to end at 17.2°C average, which while normal for July and August, will be the 3rd warmest September on record, according to a tweet by Kees van der Leun.

Read more at the Guardian: Dutch parliament votes to close down country's coal industry

Here is how Kees van der Leun saw the parliamentary vote:

"NL Parliament is clear: CO2-emissions -25% by 2020, -55%(!) by 2030. Govt appeal against climate verdict not necessary anymore" https://t.co/7aPdMMkSXE

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) September 22, 2016

By voting for a target of 55% CO2-emission reduction by 2030, NL Parliament showed it understands what is needed. Consequences are enormous!

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) September 23, 2016

55% less CO2 emissions by 2030 means ~100% renewable *electricity* in NL, just 14 years from now. And a major effort in energy efficiency.

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) September 23, 2016

This is what Parliament's vote of yesterday evening means for NL greenhouse gas emissions in the coming 14 years. Massive! pic.twitter.com/LI7m9XSgok

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) September 23, 2016

Unexpectedly, NL Parliament voted yesterday to close coal-fired power plants and, in the process, for 55% emission reduction by 2030! pic.twitter.com/VobCLG6QdV

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) September 23, 2016

95 percent of Australian coal, 88 percent of Global Fossil Fuel reserves need to remain unburned - Implications for Queensland

A new study published in Nature argues that 80 per cent of global fossil fuel reserves needs to remain un-burned if we are to limit global warming temperature rise to 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century. This has implications for new coal developments in Queensland including the Galilee basin coal mines being proposed and the recently approved (19 December 2014) Acland Phase 3 coal mine on the Darling Downs.

The commitment to limit climate change to this level was made by heads of state at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009, one of the few positive agreements to come out of those talks.

Lead author Dr Christophe McGlade, Research Associate at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources said: “We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2°C temperature limit. Policy makers must realise that their instincts to completely use the fossil fuels within their countries are wholly incompatible with their commitments to the 2°C goal. If they go ahead with developing their own resources, they must be asked which reserves elsewhere should remain unburnt in order for the carbon budget not to be exceeded.”

The table above shows how much reserves from each region need to stay in the ground. The authors include two sets of figures: one where Carbon capture and storage commercial technology is developed by 2025 for widespread implementation, and one without carbon capture and storage. I have highlighted the OECD Pacific region.

I think the painfully slow development of CCS shows that it is an uneconomic technology that will be made irrelevant by the advances in solar panel efficiencies and rollout of wind power. But that also limits the amount of fossil fuels we can burn and still meet the 2 degree target.

Without CCS being implemented, Australia must keep 95 per cent of coal reserves in the ground, unexploited, un-burned. That means the proposed coal mines planned for Queensland's Galilee basin need to remain undeveloped no matter the economics of the projects.

HESTA Super Fund restricts thermal coal investments

The first major Australian industry superannuation fund advised on Friday they were restricting thermal coal investment due to the growing risk of 'unburnable carbon' with the growing global push to limit global warming.

HESTA, the super fund for employees in health and community services, announced a progressive implementation of a restriction on investments in thermal coal, across all it's funds, not just it's ethical fund. HESTA has $29 billion under funds management with 785,000 members and 155,000 employers.

Anne-Marie Corboy, HESTA Chief Executive Officer, said that this was an increasing restriction as part of the Fund’s ongoing response to the increasing impact of climate change on its long-term investments. In a media statement she commented:

“This ‘unburnable carbon’ is likely to become an increasing risk in the medium to long term, especially for companies heavily invested in thermal coal, or those seeking to develop new long-term assets.

“HESTA is of the view that, new or expanded thermal coal assets face the highest risk of becoming stranded before the end of their useful life.

“It is not prudent, nor in the long-term interest of members, to invest in the expansion of these assets.

“The push to limit the impact of global warming requires economies to move to a lower-carbon intensive future and investors have an important role to play in this transition.

“HESTA believes that further investment in developing new, or expanding existing, thermal coal reserves is inconsistent with this imperative to reduce carbon emissions.”

Australia's coal expansion risks stranded assets

Australia's headlong expansion of coal mining for export carries substantial investment risks of stranding assets says a new report from Oxford University. Previous warnings regarding potential risks of a carbon bubble have been made by Carbon Tracker, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and International Energy Agency (IEA).

During December 2013 the Abbott Federal Government gave approval for massive coal port expansion in Queensland at Abbot Point and expansion of coal seam gas (CSG) facilities in Gladstone. It also approved the third coal mine to operate in the Galilee basin 450km from the coast. Environmental approval processes were also passed to the authority of State Governments to streamline further mining approvals, as well as Federal funding immediately cut to Environmental Defenders Offices in each state.

In the conclusion of the report on the risk of stranded assets, Ben Caldecott, James Tilbury and Yuge Ma state:

"It is clear that China’s coal demand patterns are changing as a result of environment-related factors and consequently less coal will be consumed than is currently expected by many owners and operators of coal assets. Given China’s growing role as the price setter in global and regional coal markets; falling demand will, all things being equal, reduce coal prices. This would result in coal assets under development becoming stranded, or operating mines only covering their marginal costs and subsequently failing to provide a sufficient return on investment."