Morrison at the G20 in Rome - blocking coal phaseout and deflecting climate ambition

G20: Macron and Merkel sit talking while Morrison alone

Before COP26 in Glasgow leaders of the G20 countries will be meeting in Rome on 30-31 October. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison will attend both high level leaders meetings.

While there is a block of countries working on phaseout of coal, Australia joins India and China in resisting G20 call to phase out coal.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) on 20 October issued a statement saying COP26 must consign coal power to history. Since its creation in 2017 by the United Kingdom and Canadian governments, the PPCA has grown to more than 130 members, including countries, cities, regions and businesses around the world. This includes 41 national Governments. In Australia subnational governments of The ACT, Cityof Sydney and  City of Melbourne have endorsed the PPCA.

Victoria reduces emissions by 24.8%, on track for 45-50% reduction by 2030

Victoria achieved a 24.8 per cent emissions reduction between 2005 and 2019 and the state’s annual emissions dropped below 100 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for the first time since 1994. This are pre-pandemic 2019 figures, and it is likely emissions have further declined during the pandemic. 

The results were contained in a report tabled in the Victorian parliament .

The Andrews government has met its legislated pledge to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 ahead of schedule, and is on track to meet its target of a 28 to 33 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2025, and 45-50 per cent by 2030.

Guest video: Fact-checking & Debunking Morrison's Net Zero 2050 'Plan' | Good COP Bad COP

The Australia Institute:

So Scott Morrison and Angus Taylor announced a net zero emissions by 2050 plan that projects that things will go wonderfully and that they won't need to change anything, especially not phasing out fossil fuel! How good.

However, their supposed confidence in beating their very weak 2030 target isn't enough to actually legislate any changes or increased commitments. This one is a real bin fire, and to help us along, and in honour of COP26 beginning in Glasgow very soon, we're drinking Scotland's finest scotch. Join us as we unpack loads of spin, mistruths and discuss what Australia should actually be taking to COP. (Hint: support and protection of the fossil fuel industry doesn't make the cut)

Methane Pledge debated by Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon Brookes highlighting lack of net zero transition plan

Bush Summit 2021 with Clare Armstrong, Barnaby Joyce and Mike Cannon-Brookes

Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce said he took credit for preventing Australia signing the Global Methane Pledge as part of Australia's Net Zero 2050 Plan. It was one of the 3 page list of demands to commit to Morrison's Net Zero by 2050 Plan.

Methane was identified in the most recent IPCC 6th Assessment report as important to reduce emissions this decade due to its high Global Warming Potential in short term time frames like 20 years. "Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH 4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality." said the report. Nature Science journal also highlighted in an editorial on 25 August 2021: Control methane to slow global warming — fast.

The issue of not signing the Global Methane pledge was raised at the Daily Telegraph Bush Summit on Friday 29 October in a discussion compared by journalist Clare Armstrong with Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce and Co-founder and CEO of Atlassian Mike Cannon-Brookes. It also highlighted the lack of any rigorous transition plan in the net zero 2050 policy, and lack of any transition plan for the agriculture sector.

COP26 Climate Summit Honest Government Ad | with References

Honest Australien Government Ad on COP26 by Juice Media. 

If you want to hear the bloody truth on what Prime Minister Scott Morrison is taking to the UN climate Conference at Glasgow, COP26, then this video gives you the important background information. 

This post provides references for the information in the video. This is a third party solidarity action to support this Honest Government Ad by Juice Media.

Morrison's Net Zero by 2050 announcement: Morrison Net Zero 2050 Plan a fraud, with plans to double coal exports, new gas expansion  

Australia is failing to update low 2030 climate emissions targets from 26-28% cut by 2030 to take to COP26. Government projections show emissions reduction may achieve 30-35% by 2030, but Government is refusing to increase the formal target. 

Independant modelling, purely based on the actions of state governments, by Climate Works Australia associated with Monash University, shows that 37-42% cut by 2030 may be achieved, The Federal Government is often working against state government action. 

Recently the Business Council of Australia produced two reports and advocated a 46-50% emissions cut by 2030. The Business Council of Australia represents many blue chip Australian corporations from many sectors (incliding mining). The second report was commissioned with the Australian Council of Trade Unions and two major peak environment organisations. 

See more references after the Youtube video.

Offshore wind Bill debated in Canberra to unlock offshore wind energy resource

Greater Gabbard Windfarm Courtesy SSE

"For a government that talks up 'technology not taxes' it is so disappointing that we've had to wait so long for this legislation" says Labor MP Kate Thwaites, who says the ALP supports the #OffshoreWindBill but the policy needs more work to deliver for jobs and communities. 

Australia's first #OffshoreWindBill creates a licensing and regulatory regime. It is a key first step for unlocking an avalanche of offshore wind farm proposals. 

The Bill also clears the path for renewable export projects such as the massive Sub Cable project in the NT, which is looking at up to 20GW of solar, and more than 40GWh of battery storage, with most of it to be exported to Singapore via sub-sea cable.

The Bill is called: Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Bill 2021 [Provisions] and Offshore Electricity Infrastructure (Regulatory Levies) Bill 2021 [Provisions].

The Blue Economy Cooperative Research Centre (Blue Economy CRC)  found there is the potential for 2000 GW of offshore wind capacity for Australia. The Australian Energy Market Operator has identified several offshore wind zones that could accommodate up to 40GW of offshore wind.

Guest Post: Australia’s clean hydrogen revolution is a path to prosperity – but it must be powered by renewable energy

Source: FFI - Andrew Forrest at Gladstone announces hydrogen electrolyser project

 John Mathews, Macquarie University

Days out from the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, the Morrison government on Tuesday announced a “practically achievable” path to reaching its new target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

As expected, the government will pursue a “technology not taxes” approach – eschewing policies such as a carbon price in favour of technological solutions to reduce emissions. Developing Australia’s fledgling hydrogen industry is a central plank in the plan.

UNEP Emissions Gap: planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020

The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C. 

Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target. 

Australia also falling short on our fair share of climate finance.

On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge: 

"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C." 

Morrison Net Zero 2050 Plan a fraud, with plans to double coal exports, new gas expansion

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor with 'Net zero Plan' slide

Prime Minister Scott Morrison accompanied by Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor announced Australia's commitment to Net Zero by 2050. But there will be no change to the 26-28% emissions reduction target by 2030 that was submitted in 2015 to the Paris Agreement.

ABC political analyst Laura Tingle commented "All this time to wait for a 15 page slide set with literally nothing new in it...." and "The plan is based on our existing policies".

Australia is taking a technology not taxes meet and cheat projection to Glasgow, which is another way of climate delay and denial while expanding fossil fuel production. 

"You will be supported by our data projection that will see us exceed our 2030 target with emissions reduction of up to 35% by 2030. We will keep our commitment, though, when it comes to our pledge that we made, and took to the last election of 26 to 28%, but we will meet it, and we will beat it. And we’ll beat it with emissions reductions we believe about the 35%." said Morrison. 

Yeah the work of all the states will see Australia achieve 37-42% emissions reduction. Federal Government doing SFA according to modelling on 2030 climate targets.

"This is the right plan for Australia – to summarise the outcome from it, which we’ll see in the plan, Australians $2,000 better off on average in 2050 compared with no Australian action." says Angus Taylor. 

But acting fast with renewables with strong 2030 targets showed citizens would be $5000 better off according to Business Council of Australia report. Guardian Australia Politics Live

Find below Ministerial press release, video of the press conference, some twitter commentary, and statements by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and shadow Climate spokesperson Chris Bowen.

Australia's 2030 climate targets for COP26

Source: Climate Council: from Paris to Glasgow report, 21 October, 2021

The Nationals have now given in principle support for Net zero by 2050. But 2050 is so far in the distance it is effectively irrelevant to what commitment and ambition Australia takes to the UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, COP26. 

Ratcheting up 2030 ambition and targets is what is really at issue. This was written into the Paris Agreement that countries increase ambition after 5 years. That time is now. Senate estimate questioning on 25 October reveals Australia's 2030 target not being updated (See update at end of post)

While we wait for the Liberal Party to reflect upon the Nationals Party confidential 3 page list of demands on committing Australia to Net Zero by 2050 target, lets reflect a bit more on the 2030 target for Australia. 

According to Climate Works Australia analysis, actions by Australian state governments has already set a de facto emissions target of 37 - 42 percent by 2030 based on a 2005 baseline eclipsing the 26-28 per cent set in 2015 by Prime Minister Abbott that formed part of Australia's initial Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and updated NDC this year.

ClimateWorks Australia: defacto national target set by state actions of 37-42%

For Australia to be in the ball park for dealing and to be taken seriously at the UN climate talks it really needs to match the commitments of USA, Europe and UK. The lower end of that range is 46 to 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 on 2005 baseline. The Climate Council says a science based target is for Australia to aim to reduce emissions by 75% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2035.

At the moment Prime Minister Morrison is taking to the G20 and Glasgow COP26 a commitment for net zero by 2050, but no change in 2030 climate targets as submitted in our NDC, no plan to increase our climate finance to our fair share, and no indication we will sign on to the Global Methane Pledge.