Professor Kevin Anderson on Real clothes for the Emperor: Facing the challenges of climate change

Professor Kevin Anderson explains in 58 minutes the challenges we face with combatting climate change. The future is looking pretty bleak, but unless we do a realistic assessment we are not going to be successful in resolving the challenge of climate change. The stakes are high with human civilisation and human survival in the balance.

It is looking decidedly unlikely we will limit global warming to 2 degrees of warming, while 4 degrees is still possible and quite achieveable, but due to climate feedback mechanisms and tipping points may prove to be just a pathway to 6 degrees, 8 degrees and beyond. And real questions need to be asked about whether our civilisation could survive a four degree warmer world, let alone temperatures much higher.

In this talk he delivers the Cabot Institute Annual Lecture 2012 at the University of Bristol in the UK on 6th November 2012. It was published on youtube on 22 Nov 2012. Quite an animated talk with lots of graphs well worthwhile watching.

Professor: prepare economy for war on climate change

Visiting Professor Dr Daniel Pauly from the University of British Colombia in Canada has told ABC radio AM current affairs program that governments should be putting their economies on a 'war footing' to fight climate change.

Dr Pauly, a world renown marine biologist and fisheries scientist, has been researching the impact of climate change on fisheries. He is currently visiting Australia on a lecture tour.

Related: Great post by David Spratt at Climate Code Red - Scientists call for war on climate change, but who on earth is listening?

Methane and CO2 in thawing Arctic permafrost a climate tipping point

A new report on permafrost slowly thawing in the Arctic creating methane and carbon dioxide emissions highlights an approaching dangerous climate tipping point. There is a huge amount of organic matter frozen in permafrost, estimated to contain 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. And it is starting to melt. With no way to stop it except indirectly through us reducing the rate of global warming by reducing our own emissions.

"The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost," said lead author Kevin Schaefer, from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

"Anthropogenic emissions' targets in the climate change treaty need to account for these emissions or we risk overshooting the 2°C maximum warming target," he added.

Watch this youtube interview with Lead author Professor Kevin Schaefer, Research Scientist at the University of Colorado being interviewed at the climate talks in Doha:

The report - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (PDF) - was published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and launched at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Doha on November 27. (See media release)

Sea Level rising 60% faster than IPCC projections

Sea Level is rising 60% faster than IPCC projections according to a new climate change related study comparing the actual rise in CO2 concentration, global temperature and sea level with past projections done by the IPCC.

Rising Global temperatures are consistent with past projections made by the IPCC fourth assessment report. But Projections for sea level rise amounted to 2 mm a year, while sea-levels are actually rising at a rate of 3.2 mm a year.

Lead author of the study, Stefan Rahmstorf, said: "This study shows once again that the IPCC is far from alarmist, but in fact has under-estimated the problem of climate change. That applies not just for sea-level rise, but also to extreme events and the Arctic sea-ice loss."

Figure 2: Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line; AVISO data from (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales) and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011)). Tide gauge data were aligned to give the same mean during 1993–2010 as the altimeter data. The scenarios of the IPCC are again shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000. From Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 Stefan Rahmstorf et al 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044035 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035

Chasing Ice: James Balog sounding the alarm on Glacier retreat and global warming

A new documentary film on extreme ice loss from glaciers - one of the impacts of global warming - is doing the rounds. Chasing Ice documents the work of National Geographic photographer James Balog in documenting the massive changes to glaciers in the Arctic region where global warming is having a much higher impact than in the mid latutudes or the tropics. Film maker Jeff Orlowski follows Balog on expeditions to the glaciers and tells Balog's story of the rapid and profound changes happening to glaciers.

The film Chasing Ice is the result. In september 2012 it won the Best Documentary at the 22nd Annual Awards of the Environmental Media Association, Excellence in Cinematography Award: US Documentary at the Sundance Film festival and some 21 other awards.

Australia's largest proposed wind farm on King Island to supply electricity to Victoria

Hydro Tasmania unveiled plans last night to a public meeting on King Island in Bass Strait for Australia's largest proposed wind farm - a 200 turbine wind farm project called TasWind. The wind farm will produce 600MW of power, enough to supply power for nearly half a million households. The project is estimated to be worth $2 billion.

The wind farm would be situated on the west of the island in the path of the roaring 40s, and most of the electricity generated exported by undersea cable to Victoria. Up to 20 percent of the island could become part of the wind farm and used concurrently with existing farming. Turbine towers would supply extra rental income for farmers plus a community dividend would be negotiated for the Island community.

A project of this size is estimated to provide perhaps 400-500 construction jobs, and 20 to 25 permanent ongoing maintenaince jobs. The seven year project would add direct economic benefits to the island and counteract the loss of the island's abattoir that ocurred in September. A feasability study would be undertaken from 2013 to 2015, followed by approvals and design process with Construction likely start in 2017 and expected completion in 2019.

Climate meltdown: Global Warming heading towards 6 degrees C warns World Bank

Last night I sat down and skimmed through the 106pp report prepared by the prestiguous Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for the World Bank. It is a shocking read, that we are presently on the business as usual emissions path of 4 degrees C of global warming by about the 2060s and 6 degrees C of warming by the turn of the century, just 88 years hence.

The United Nations Environment Program warns that Greenhouse Gas Emissions Gap Widening as Nations Head to Crucial Climate Talks in Doha. The International Energy Agency warned in their 2011 World Energy Outlook report that we are on a 4-6 degree Celsius trajectory and that 80 percent of carbon emissions infrastructure has already been built and is in operation. We cannot afford to add any new carbon intensive infrastructure that will continue to pollute for 30-50 years, yet the World Resources Institute reveals nearly 1,200 Proposed Coal-Fired Power Plants, the majority in India and China.

But grassroots action is having an impact: thousands rallied against coal across India, and a very first Arab Day of Climate Action (Photos) organised by the Arab Youth Climate Movement occurred on November 10. In the US, the Sierra Club reports victories in stopping the coal rush.

A recent Price WaterhouseCoopers report warned that Business as usual Carbon emissions heading towards 6°C (10.8°F) of global warming this century. So there is widespread agreement from science and scientists, energy experts and experts in global economics and accounting that we are facing a climate meltdown.

Related: 4 Degrees or More? Climate Change: The Critical Decade - a speech by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of PIK. The article includes a CSIRO media release on +4ºC scenarios for Australia's future climate. | Another view from Systemic Disorder: World Bank’s call for slowing global warming ignores own role

Study: Winds driving Record Antarctic Sea ice growth, global sea ice extent still declining

While the Arctic sea-ice has experienced a dramatic reduction, Antarctic sea ice continues to increase in extent hitting a new record in October this year. So what's going on?

The trend for a gradual increase in Antarctic Sea ice has puzzled scientists. Firstly, the gradual increase in Antarctic sea ice is far less than the amount of sea ice vanishing in the Arctic Sea. Global sea ice trend still shows a marked retreat.

But in the Antarctic working out why the sea ice trend has seen a one percent increase per decade since the 1970s has bamboozled the scientists. A new study based upon 18 years of detailed satellite ice motion measurements has put forward that it is primarily local winds pushing ice mainly north creating polyanas in the ice flows where more ice can easily form.

Climate change connection between Global temperatures, ice volume and sea level

There is a rapid response connection between polar temperature changes, ice volume and sea leavel according to a new method of dating of sea level records and comparing them with temperature data and ice core records for the last 150,000 years.

Previously the dating of ice-volume changes relied on the ‘Red Sea relative sea-level (RSL) record’. However this dating method did not have independent age control which inhibited detailed comparison with other well-dated climate parameters, such as temperature or CO2 records from ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. The new method of dating the RSL record used Mediterranean data from radiometric (Uranium-series) dating of cave deposits which could be applied to the last glacial cycle reaching back 150,000 years, providing a continuous sea-level record with excellent independent age control.

According to the study sea level rise reached speeds of "at least 1.2 metres per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction" in the last 150,000 years.

One of the study authors, Professor Elco Rohling from the National Oceanography Centre Southampton said: "This is the first time that these rates could be measured for any other period than the end-of-ice age 'terminations/deglaciations'. Although it is always hard to step from palaeo reconstructions to future projections, it suggests that when significant ice-volume adjustments happen, they are rarely slow."

Climate change implications of new study on methane emissions in coal seam gas field

Coal seam gas has been touted as a green transitional fuel, far less polluting than coal, but a new study implies it may not be as green or climate friendly as the industry makes out. It hinges on the level of fugitive emissions produced in development and production of a gas field. A study by two scientists from Southern Cross University based in Lismore, northern NSW, detected much higher levels of the strong greenhouse gas methane around the Tara gas field on the Darling Downs of Queensland west of Brisbane.

Related: The Conversation: Mike Sandiford on A Lot of Hot Air in the Coal to Gas Transition| Renee Santoro on Methane makes shale gas a current climate danger

Action: Getup! have started a Dirtier than Coal? campaign calling on Federal Climate Change Minister Greg Combet to commission urgent research into the climate impacts of coal seam gas, and to make sure that CSG companies start accounting, and paying, for fugitive emissions.