A North Atlantic nasty surprise: AMOC slowing faster than expected

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowing much faster than expected

It seems that the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster disaster movie The Day after Tommorrow, while highly exaggerated, had the seed of scientific fact based upon the possible disruption that could occur from the slowdown or catastrophic cessation of the Atlantic ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the thermohaline circulation or Great ocean conveyor belt.

A new study by Rahmstorf et al (2015) published in Nature Climate Change has found evidence for a slowdown of the overturning circulation. This is based upon multiple lines of observation suggesting that over recent decades the current system has been weaker than ever before in the last century, or even in the last millennium.

The Gulf Stream is part of this circulation system with warm waters, which are naturally lighter, flowing north, and responsible for the mild climate of north western Europe. In the sub-polar region these waters cool, become more dense, and sink to the bottom before they start flowing south along the ocean bottom towards the tropics, then the South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The conveyor belt of currents connects the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific and Southern Oceans providing heat transfer and mixing throughout the globe.

Related Links: What’s going on in the North Atlantic? at Realclimate Blog | New Research Shows Exceptional Slowdown In Major Atlantic Ocean Currents Greg Laden's Science Blog

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam devastates Vanuatu and other Pacific Island nations

Tropical Cyclone Pam, a category 5 storm as measured on both the Australian and Saffir-Simpson storm measurement scales, with wind gusts over 300km/hr, has devastated the Pacific Island Nation of Vanuatu.

The storm made a direct hit on the capital Port Vila of this island country on Friday night and the early hours of Saturday morning, causing widespread damage, blocking roads, power and communication outages and destroying many homes and buildings. Even the main Hospital in Port Vila suffered damage.

Tom Skirrow from Save The Children says 10,000 people need emergency shelter in Port Vila alone according to Liam Fox, an ABC News Pacific Affairs Reporter. According to Radio New Zealand (@RNZNews) Vanuatu's Disaster Management Office says part of the country's main hospital, Vila Central, have been destroyed. This has been confirmed by Vanuatu's lands minister, Ralph Regenvanu, saing only one ward of Vila Central Hospital is still operational.

The United Nations Relief web reported:

The cyclone was one of the strongest ever recorded in the Pacific Islands with sustained winds of 270km/hr gusting to 360km/hr. The United Nations has stated that Pam could be one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the Pacific. Vanuatu’s President, Baldwin Lonsdale, has appealed to the global community for help. Thousands of people are in temporary shelters. Entire communities were severely damaged in some areas. Islands in the north and south of Vanuatu were hit most directly.

Unprecedented acceleration in the rate of temperature change coming up

The latest research published in Nature Climate Change based on CMIP5 climate modelling, argues that we are likely to see rapid rates of temperature rise in the near term of the next 40 year period that is unprecedented in the last 2,000 years. The rate of temperature increase is likely to rise to 0.25 ± 0.05 °C per decade by 2020. Much of this rise will be disproportionately felt in the northern hemisphere regions of the Arctic, North America and Europe.

This acceleration will occurr over the next 40 years despite what efforts we make to reduce our emissions. What mitigation action we do take will affect the rate of temperature rise after this near term period.

"We focused on changes over 40-year periods, which is similar to the lifetime of houses and human-built infrastructure such as buildings and roads," said lead author Steven Smith. "In the near term, we're going to have to adapt to these changes."

Hang onto your hats and sunscreen because this is going to become a wild ride in learning to adapt to extreme weather, especially heatwaves.

Taking the earth's temperature and the influence of ocean sea surface temperature cycles

I had a go at charting the global mean temperature trend. An interesting thing to do as it gives you an insight into all those global mean temperature graphs you see.

I started off with the GISS temperature anomaly dataset that goes from 1880 up to the present. The temperature anomaly data is provided in monthly intervals based upon a 1951-1980 baseline of 14.0 deg-C, but I really only used the data from 1970 to the present.

Using monthly data you see the extremes that sometimes occurr, both on the warm side and the cold side. I added a 12 month running average trend line (red) and a 5 year running average trendline (dark blue) to make the temperature trend clearer.

Here is the result:

Manila statement for #climate action calls for solidarity and justice

This original story first published at Nofibs.

The leaders of France and the Philippines issued an ambituous call from Manila for a global climate deal in Paris at the end of 2015.

The President of France François Hollande (@fhollande) and President of the Philippines Benigno S. Aquino III issued the Manila call to action on climate change on 26 February 2015. The statement calls on nations to step up for an ambitious and fair agreement based on climate science to be concluded at the UNFCCC climate talks, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), scheduled for Paris in December 2015.

Impact of climate change science on Regional Forest Agreement stumps bureacrat

This article was originally published at Nofibs.com.au

At Senate estimate hearings on Monday Senator Janet Rice, the Greens spokesperson for forests, asked a number of probing questions on Regional Forest Agreements. One question in particular asked about how climate change science was included in the review of these agreements. The bureaucrats looked like stunned mullets, until one volunteered that the question would have to be taken on notice.

Really? They haven't considered some sort of cost benefit analysis of carbon sequestration? Not even as an opportunity to bid under the Emmissions Reduction Fund for the carbon sequestration potential involved in protection of old growth forests?

Senator RICE: I have one more question on climate, particularly on how climate science has progressed significantly in the years since the first RFAs were struck and climate has not been considered in the reviews so far. I want to know how it is intended that the impacts of climate change and the value of forests for carbon sequestration are going to be taken into account in the review and progress reports to come.

Mr McNamara: We will have to take the question on notice.

Extreme Weather: Severe Tropical Cyclones Lam and Marcia make Australian landfall

Double Trouble: Two severe tropical cyclones are converging on the Australian coast. Tropical Cyclone Marcia developed in the Coral Sea off the Queensland Coast. Tropical Cyclone Lam developed in the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria before moving north and west into the Arafura Sea.

This map from bureau of Meteorology shows Tropical Cyclone Lam hitting the Northern Territory and Tropical Cyclone Marcia about to make landfall between Mackay and Yeppoon on the Queensland coast.

Severe Tropical cyclone Marcia is the 4th recorded category 5 storm to make landfall on the Queensland coast. Previous category 5 storms included Cyclone Yasi in 2011, Cyclone Innisfail in 1918 and Cycline Mahina in 1899. See a list of Australia's worst tropical cyclones at Australian Geographic.

Follow the live reporting at the Brisbane Times or live reporting at the Guardian.

Will Australia be a spoiler or lifter for #Paris2015 global #climate agreement?

This article was originally published at nofibs.com.au

The Geneva negotiating text provides hope for a global climate agreement in the lead up to the United Nations Paris climate negotiations in December 2015.

The Paris climate talks are a significant landmark: whether the international community will negotiate an effective agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce global warming, or allow rising business as usual emissions to cause economic and civilisation disruption due to increasing severity of extreme weather events and rising temperatures.

You just need to look around at the climate impacts we are seeing in Australia whether it is in the bushfires in South Australia, heatwaves in Melbourne, or the increase in jellyfish blooms in North Queensland.

Help send John Englart and Tarryn to blog the Paris COP21 climate talks

I announced late December 2014 my intention of attending and reporting on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference in Paris from November 30 to December 11 2015. I have been following the climate science, and climate negotiations for some 10 years now.

The Paris climate talks are a significant landmark for whether the international community will negotiate an effective agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce global warming or not.

My goals for 2015: attend #COP21 Paris write > 100 climate posts attend @morelandcouncil Local action @camoreland http://t.co/h6AC8CfEcm

— John Englart EAM (@takvera) January 1, 2015

The window of opportunity for limiting warming to a 2C rise above pre-industrial levels is quickly closing. This is our last and best chance to limit the damage and inter-generational theft that climate change will inflict on present and future generations.

"Paris 2015 is perhaps last chance before we say that the 2-degree target will be almost impossible to reach,” Birol http://t.co/2kJTg7T8GF

— John Englart EAM (@takvera) November 4, 2013

This year I decided I want to report live from the climate negotiations, via twitter, facebook and blog reports to nofibs.com.au, Indymedia Australia and Climate Action Moreland, my local climate action group. I will be going with my teenage daughter who will also help me blog the event and provide a teen perspective.

But we can't do this by ourselves. I have launched a crowdfunding campaign to raise funds to cover our accommodation and living expenses for 3 weeks while in Paris. I am negotiating to stay in Youth Hostel style accomodation that is being organised by Civil Society groups for bloggers like myself and Tarryn.

Chip in some money to help cover our basic expenses. The return on the investment will be to ensure some great on the ground live reporting from the Climate talks. I hope in particular to track the Australian negotiators and what contribution they make to a global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions and tackle climate change.

I am active in my local climate group, Climate Action Moreland and I am across many of the climate related policies of the City of Moreland. I hope to informally talk with and network among many other climate, environmental and social justice activists from around the world for a cross-pollination of ideas and strategies particularly for local groups and action within urban areas and at the municipal level.

Your donation, whatever amount you can spare, will help Tarryn and I provide you with some really great first hand live reporting and impressions of this important conference. If you can't donate, please share for others to consider contributing. And when we are in Paris live tweeting, facebooking and blogging, share our posts often and widely.

Visit my Ozcrowd Fundraising campaign page to contribute.

Climate change and heatwaves in Melbourne - a Review

Abstract: The impacts of Climate change are now being felt at a regional level in cities like Melbourne. The impact of rising temperatures and increasing frequency, duration and intensity of hotspells and heatwaves on Melbourne and its urban heat island poses challenges in how to respond and adapt. There are multiple risks to human health, maintaining urban infrastructure and urban biodiversity. Countering heatwaves and climate change is a major social and political challenge and will require both rapid mitigation of carbon emissions for the long term and widespread adoption of urban climate adaptation strategies and behaviour at personal, business and government levels.

John Englart 10 February 2015.
Download as a PDF

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3050.7688

This article started during my single subject study in Academic Research at NMIT (now Melbourne Polytechnic) during Semester 1 of 2014. The focus was selected in negotiation with my lecturer. A slightly abbreviated version was handed in as my major assessment for the subject. The other two assessments of the subject were an annotated bibliography and a formal classroom presentation, which was also published at slideshare. I received a high distinction for the subject overall.

This literature review is structured in two parts: the first on Melbourne temperature and heatwave impacts from climate change, and the second on risk management, mitigation and adaptation to rising temperatures, heatwaves, and the urban heat island effect in Melbourne.

I thought limiting my focus to one climate impact - temperature and heatwaves - and one location - Melbourne - would narrow the field substantially, but as I dug deeper and read more widely I found a wealth of relevant literature either relevant to heatwave impact or directly to my regional focus. The bulk of the references are peer reviewed academic studies, but some are academic working papers and presentations, reports to Government, and news articles including several by myself published on this blog, Sustainable Fawkner or Climate Action Moreland.

Contents

• 1. Rising temperatures Heatwaves and their impact
• Urban Heat Island effect and heatwaves
• Heatwave impact on Human Health
• Rising summer night temperatures increasing risk
• Heart disease and heatwaves
• Lower socio-economic groups more vulnerable
• Those suffering Mental Health at greater risk
• Childhood Asthma made worse
• Increase in Foodborne disease
• Association with Urban Suicide
• Cost estimates of Victorian bushfire and heatwave mortality
• Heatwave impact on Infrastructure
• Heatwave impact on biodiversity and ecosystems
• 2. Countering the threat of Heatwaves and climate change in Melbourne
• Heatwave Management
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Personal measures
• Increase Urban surface albedo (reflectivity)
• Air-conditioning
• Urban Forests
• Water Sensitive Urban Design
• Urban Food Security and building community resilience
• Mode shift to Public Transport, walking and cycling
• 3. Conclusion
• References