"We are living through climate collapse in real time and the impact is devastating" UN Secretary General calls for phase out of Fossil Fuels at COP28

Rather than attend the Opening Plenary of COP28, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres provided a video message for the  World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) launch of their Provisional State of the Global Climate 2023 report.   

He carefully summarised some of the main points of the report and said "We are living through climate collapse in real time and the impact is devastating". He called for committing at COP28 to phase out fossil fuels, with a clear time frame aligned to the 1.5-degree limit.

Describing the provisional WMO report, WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taala said, 

“Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is record low. It’s a deafening cacophony of broken records,” 

“These are more than just statistics. We risk losing the race to save our glaciers and to rein in sea level rise. We cannot return to the climate of the 20th century, but we must act now to limit the risks of an increasingly inhospitable climate in this and the coming centuries,” he said.  

“Extreme weather is destroying lives and livelihoods on a daily basis – underlining the imperative need to ensure that everyone is protected by early warning services,” said Prof. Taalas.

Stop climate 'virtue signalling' and move past fossil fuels now says Mining Billionaire Andrew Forrest on his way to COP28

Andrew (Twiggy) Forrest is no saint regarding his mining interests, with allegations his companies destroyed sacred indigenous cultural sites. 

Increasingly, he has championed climate action, energy transition, phase out of coal, oil and gas, phase out of fossil fuel subsidies, and Australia becoming an energy superpower based on our excellent renewable energy sources, and critical minerals. In this interview he calls for the old guard in fossil fuels to get out of the way, and calls Australia a Petro-state.

Forrest is non-executive Chaiman of Fortescue Metals Group (FMG). He has a strong interest in maintaining the health of the oceans and in 2019 was awarded a PhD in Marine Science from the University of Western Australia.

Australia's second annual climate Statement by Climate Minister Chris Bowen

With the election of a Labor Government in May 2022, Australia's headline climate policies also changed.

The new Government set an interim emissions target of 43 percent emissions reduction by 2030 based on 2005 levels. To help achieve this a Renewables target of 82 percent by 2030 was also set. The government outlined that a Fuels emission standards would be introduced, but we are yet to see this.

The speech outlines the positive actions on renewables and energy transition already taken, critical minerals and steps to become a renewable energy super power. But the elephant in the room is that Australia has approved 10 new or extended fossil fuel projects in the last 18 months. 

The Australian Conservation Foundation has highlighted that Emissions from coal and gas projects backed by the Albanese government outweigh emissions cut, 7-to-1.

While Chris Bowen warned global heating will fuel political instability with national security implications, the government has refused to release a Climate Security assessment by the Office of National Intelligence, even in a redacted form.

Watch the broadcast:

Momemt of truth for Fossil Fuels: Warning from IEA that Fossil Fuel companies need to transition or die

The IEA report on The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions is worth while reading and taking note of in regards to fossil fuel production and energy transition. For many years the IEA was seen as a conservative body supportive of fossil fuels, but increasingly it has advocated for a strong energy transition based on the science and the Paris Agreement targets.

The report advocates that the Fossil Fuel Industry is at a turning point,  and must do much more to respond to the threat of climate change. The report articulates that:

• less than 1% of global clean energy investment comes from oil and gas companies
• Nations and Companies need to consider scaling back oil and gas operations over time – not expanding them. "There is no way around this." said Fatih Birol. 
• Fossil Fuel producers need to embrace the clean energy economy, and the opportunities involved.

The IEA is throwing the Fossil Fuel companies a lifeline, to be part of the clean energy transition through investment, the utilisation of skills in related areas. The report does not detail the result if companies choose to resist and are aided by corrupt and bought off governments. A very bumpy ride for the companies and all of us as the planet cooks.

While the IEA supports efforts at Carbon Capture and Storage both in the report and in comments by IEA head Fatih Birol were very pointed about the unrealistic expectations of carbon capture and storage for abating continued fossil fuels.

“The oil and gas industry is facing a moment of truth at COP28 in Dubai. With the world suffering the impacts of a worsening climate crisis, continuing with business as usual is neither socially nor environmentally responsible,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil and gas producers around the world need to make profound decisions about their future place in the global energy sector. The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution. This special report shows a fair and feasible way forward in which oil and gas companies take a real stake in the clean energy economy while helping the world avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”

Fossil Fuel lobbyists are likely to be at their peak at the Dubai climate conference. Will they listen to reason from the International Energy Agency? Will the Petro States listen to the IEA or the companies wanting to extract maximum profit in cooking the planet?

70% chance that global greenhouse gas emissions start falling in 2024 if clean energy and EV trends continue.

Ahead of the UN Climate Conference in Dubai, COP28, Climate Analytics researched when global greenhouse gas emissions may peak. There is a 70% chance global emissions may peak in 2023.  COP28 needs to push strongly for tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions, and phasing out fossil fuels.

Based on the science, The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. 

Emissions are set to rise again in 2023.

The analysis shows there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions. 

This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions – meeting the IPCC deadline.

The report says that the "continued explosive growth of wind and solar in particular would push fossil fuels out of the power sector, leading to peak coal in 2023 and peak gas in 2024. Meanwhile, continued growth in electric vehicles could lead to peak oil in 2025.

Thousands protest at Peoples Blockade of coal at the Port of Newcastle

Image: Peoples Blockade - Rising Tide Australia

An estimated 3,000 people gather at Newcastle, the world's largest coal port this weekend, for a 30 hour blockade of coal ships. 

They came in sail boats, canoes, kayaks to block the shipping channels to stop any ships this weekend. Authorities were notified of the protest, and blockades have been held in previous years which stop shipping movements during the blockade hours.

The Peoples Blockade has 3 basic demands:

1. Immediately cancel all new fossil fuel projects
2. Tax fossil fuel export profits at 75% to fund community and industrial transition, and pay for climate loss and damage
3. End all coal exports from Newcastle – the world’s largest coal port – by 2030

Coalition and Greens pushing NSW Labor Government for 70% emissions reduction by 2035 target

It seems the NSW Minns Labor government is under pressure to include a more ambitious 2035 emissions reduction target in its climate legislation about to be debated in the NSW Parliament. The legislation as currently written will entrench targets of 50% by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

But Coalition parties and the Greens want a 2035 target included of cutting emissions by 70% on 2005 levels by 30 June 2035.

NSW Liberal Party opposition environment spokesperson, Kellie Sloane, “The Minns government has introduced a climate change bill with less ambitious targets than the Coalition had, they’ve cut electric vehicle subsidies,” she said.

The NSW 2035 target is still less than Victoria's climate action targets put forward before the election in 2022, and legislated in May 2023 in Victoria. 

Victoria's 2035 emissions reduction target is set at 75-80% reductions on 2005 levels, and net zero by 2045. It places Victoria as globally ambitious in climate targets. Victoria new renewable energy targets are 95% renewables by 2035, 65% by 2030. (Climate Citizen)

Read more at The Guardian

Climate Minister Chris Bowen outlines Australia's priorities in global climate action in lead up to COP28

Climate Minister Chris Bowen at Lowy Institute

Speech by Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen to the Lowy Institute on Australia's climate change priorities in the lead up to the United Nations climate conference COP28 in Dubhai, United Arab Emirates.

"This November, the world's attention will be on the 28th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) on climate change held in Dubai. As countries convene to agree on efforts to mitigate the consequences of climate change, questions arise: what are the implications for Australia and what role does Australia play?

"Minister Bowen will speak on the international dynamics affecting global climate action and how Australia’s ambition to become a Renewable Energy Superpower can help the world in the rapid transformation to reach net zero emissions. After his remarks, the Minister spoke in conversation with the Lowy Institute's Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM."

While Bowen said Australia would support a tripling of global renewables capacity and doubling of global energy efficiency efforts, he failed to address Australia's expansion of coal and gas which is at odds with the secretary general of the UN, António Guterres, and his urgings for countries to commit to  phasing out fossil fuels with a clear timeframe, and taking in information in the UNEP Emissions Gap and Production Gap reports.

"In Dubai, we will again be arguing for a strong position and stronger mitigation outcomes.  We want this COP to be about stronger, practical outcomes, not just maintaining the status quo.'

"Alongside our friends from Canada, another traditional fossil fuel-based economy in the middle of a major transition and arguing for progressive outcomes in international fora, we can play the role of a country that is dealing with the practical implications of the transition each and every day. "

Australia would be arguing for “stronger mitigation language” in the Global Stock Take debate..

Australia has also rejoined the Green Climate Fund this year and intended to contribute to the new Pacific Resilience Facility.

Bowen mentioned the recent China-US Sunnylands statement on climate co-operation. 

While Australia may not be pushing Santos Carbon Capture and Storage exhibit like at the Australian Pavillion at COP26, it is supporting offshore CCS with its Sea Dumping legislation to enable Santos to use sequestratuion if the Barossa Gas Field near the Tiwi Islands is allowed to proceed.

APEC 2023 and the Sunnylands statement for US-China cooperation to address the Climate Crisis in leadup to COP28

APEC 2023 San Fransisco

Last week on the 16-17 November Pacific Nation leaders met under the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum and and issued the 2023 APEC Leaders’ Golden Gate Declaration. President Biden (USA), President Xi (China), Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (Australia) were all there.

Of greater importance has been the ongoing dialogue between US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and China Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua who met in early November in California, following by bilateral discussion by Presidents Biden and Xi before APEC. 

Dialogue and actions by USA and China are key for setting ambition at the United Nations Climate conference COP28 in Dubai.

China's emissions are likely to fall in 2024, according to analysis published at Carbon Brief.

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Emissions dangerously increasing and heading for 2.9 degrees C global warming on current policies

This is the 14th Emissions Gap Report. It is published ahead of the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28).  Definitely a broken record with the United Nations and scientists continually warning of the emissions gap between national policies, pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions- NDCs) and what the science says the targets we need to achieve in reducing emissions.

The report's main highlights are:

• Predicted 2030 emissions must fall by 28-42 per cent for pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C 
• Relentless mitigation and low-carbon transformations essential to narrow emissions gap 
• COP28 and Global Stocktake provide an oportunity to build greater ambition for next round of climate pledges 

UN Secretary General called the emissions gap "more like an emissions canyon.  A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records.  All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity."

Until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever according to the WMO, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.  In a record first, 2 days during November exceeded 2.0C of warming based on Global average temperatures reported by .Copernicus ECMWF.

The report finds that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022.