Guest Post: Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows

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Pep Canadell, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter; Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo, and Rob Jackson, Stanford University

Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, our analysis released today has found.

The troubling finding comes as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.

The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s sharp drop, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050.

Guest Post: global deforestation deal at COP26 will fail if countries like Australia don’t lift their game on land clearing

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Kate Dooley, The University of Melbourne

At the Glasgow COP26 climate talks overnight, Australia and 123 other countries signed an agreement promising to end deforestation by 2030.

The declaration’s signatories, which include global deforestation hotspots such as Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have committed to:

working collectively to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 while delivering sustainable development and promoting an inclusive rural transformation.

This declaration should be welcomed for recognising how crucial forest loss and land degradation are to addressing climate change, biodiversity decline and sustainable development.

But there have been many such declarations before, and it’s hard to feel excited about yet another one.

What really matters is changing policy domestically; if countries don’t change what they are doing at home to bring emissions from fossil fuels to zero and restore degraded lands, declarations like this are meaningless.

Fossil awards to USA, France and IETA at COP26 on Day 3

We hear so much about the new ambition by the USA. They have rejoined the Coalition of High ambition, increased climate finance, initiated the Global Methane Pledge, supported the Glasgow Declaration on Forests and land use but there are undercurrents such as ‘AIM for Climate’ (AIM4C) initiative that support industrial agriculture.

France too seems full of ambition, but the undertow is present there as well with a push for the integration of fossil gas and nuclear as 'sustainable' energies in the EU taxonomy.

International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) received a fossil award for... well being mostly fossils and pushing a fossil fuel agenda including on carbon markets. IETA, which represents fossil fuel companies such as Chevron, Shell and BP has a delegation over 100-strong at COP26 according to the participant list.

Over 100 leaders commit to end deforestation by 2030 with Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use

Leader's event: Action on Forests and Land-use. Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use

Over 100 global leaders pledged to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030, underpinned by $12bn in public and $7.2bn in private funding. to invest in protecting and restoring forests and reversing land degradation.

Leaders representing over 85% of the world’s forests made the commitment to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030 at COP26. This included $12bn in public and $7.2bn in private funding. These announcements were part of an unprecedented package of economic and political commitments to end deforestation worldwide.

It includes the northern forests of Canada and Russia to the tropical rainforests of Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Australia has signed the Leaders Declaration on Forest and Land Use, but has not committed to the Global Forest Finance Pledge. 

Fossil Awards to Norway, Japan and Australia, Ray awards to Scotland, India at COP26 Day 2

Photo: Angus Taylor spruiking Santos Gas and CCS. Photo courtesy @RichieMerzian

Today had a plethora of awards, both good and bad. Norway snatched the first fossil award of the day for pushing gas with CCS. Japan is still promoting fossil coal power plants on the justification that they are necessary to integrate renewable energy, not only in Japan, but also throughout Asia. For Australia the award was for Enegy Minister Angus Taylor for selling Australian fossil fuels and our future down the toilet so brazenly with gas company Santos at the Australian pavillion.

The awards aren't all negative. Scotland received a Ray of the Day for putting £1m from their Climate Justice Fund into Loss and Damage. Much needed real leadership on Loss and Damage finance. And India's substantial increased commitments for 2030 were truly an unexpected  highlight of the Leaders Summit National Statements for their Ray award. 

Australia has a pavillion at COP26 and it appears to be a Santos gas and CCS promotion

Photo courtesy Jo Dodds, Bushfire survivors for Climate Action

 I have attended four UN Climate Change conferences and Australia has never had a country pavillion. But at COP26 Australia is there with some big screens, a coffee machine and signs from Santos, one of Australia's biggest gas exploration and production companies.

Over 100 countries sign on to Global Methane Pledge launched at COP26

Well over 100 nations have joined the pledge said United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry in articulating that reduction in the powerful greenhouse gas could prevent 0.2C of warming from being locked in by 2050. 

"Countries coming in to the pledge in the last hour. We are now up to 105 countries" says John Kerry.

Methane is is very powerful greenhouse gas, and it is one of the gases we can reduce quickly.

President Joe Biden said "One of the most important things you can do this decade is to keep 1.5 degrees within reach, is to reduce our methane emissions as quickly as possible. It amounts to about half the warming we are experiencing today. Just methane."

Fossil of the day awards to Australia and UK on first day of COP26

For the first time Australia has a country pavillion at COP to highlight the 'Australian Way'

And on the first day of the UN climate conference in Glasgow both Australia and the UK both snatched Fossil of the Day awards for their actions in being the worst of the worst.

COP26 is the 5 year anniversary of the Paris Agreement and is all about bringing along increased ambition and climate targets as part of upgraded Nationally Determined Contributions. 

Australia may have pledged net zero by 2050 but utterly failed to bring any new updated 2030 target. Sadly this is a well earned Fossil Award for Australia being a true dedicated climate laggard (in an often busy field).

Australia also featured in the first ECO-Newsletter of COP26, the Outside Looking In Issue:

Deconstructing Australia's National statement on climate action at COP26 delivered by Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Scott Morrison addressed the UN climate change conference COP26 and made Australia's national statement speech in Glasgow in the early hours of Tuesday morning. I have provided the statement below in paragraph form along with a factcheck and debunk alongside to better understand and unpack the information.

At the leaders summit the following new commitments were made (Australia's barely gets a mention in finance): 

• India, Thailand, Nepal, Nigeria and Vietnam make new net zero pledges which now means that 90% of the global economy is covered by net zero commitments. 
• India’s announcement also included a suite of ambitious 2030 commitments, including  500GW non fossil fuel power capacity, 50% energy requirements from renewable sources and 45% reduction of the carbon intensity of the economy. 
• New NDC announcements from: Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, India, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique and Thailand 
• New Long-Term Strategies announced or submitted by Jamaica, Kazakhstan and the USA. 
• On climate finance, we’ve seen new commitments from: Ireland, Spain, Australia and Luxembourg.

An indigenous story motivates COP26 opening in Glasgow

Outgoing COP President Carolina Schmidt from Chile started the proceedings before handing over to UK Minister Alok Sharma, who was formerly elected by acclamation to COP26 president, who summed up the job of the conference in his speech as to “ensure where Paris promised, Glasgow delivers”.

Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the UNFCCC  told delegates: “We stand at a pivotal point in history”. She urged countries to come together to make progress in Glasgow, saying every day that delays the implementation of the Paris agreement “is a wasted day”.

"We must look beyond the numbers to the humans they represent. The data is unequivocal – we must limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C by the end of the century. We must use the science and act upon it."

"Consider the trust vested in you by billions – and achieve success, not just for our generation, but for all generations to come." said Espinosa in her speech.

But the most moving speech was the story of India Logan-Riley from Aotearoa on behalf of Indigenous peoples. She outlined the importance of indigenous knowledge and staying strong with the land and culture. Indigenous Leadership has already prevented substantial emissions by stopping or delaying  fossil fuel projects.