Guest Post: Australia’s clean hydrogen revolution is a path to prosperity – but it must be powered by renewable energy

Source: FFI - Andrew Forrest at Gladstone announces hydrogen electrolyser project

 John Mathews, Macquarie University

Days out from the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, the Morrison government on Tuesday announced a “practically achievable” path to reaching its new target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

As expected, the government will pursue a “technology not taxes” approach – eschewing policies such as a carbon price in favour of technological solutions to reduce emissions. Developing Australia’s fledgling hydrogen industry is a central plank in the plan.

UNEP Emissions Gap: planet heading to 2.7C climate catastrophe without needed 2030 ambition at COP26

UNEP Emissions Gap 2021: Global emissions 1970-2020

The UN Environment Program published 2021 Emissions Gap - The Heat is on report analysing current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) revealing world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

Commitments made for 2030 but not yet submitted in an updated NDC – only take an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to the previous round of commitments. Reductions of 30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C. 

Australia submitted an updated NDC in December 2020 with no change in 2030 targets, which will be the policy position at COP26, although Prime Minister Morrison & Energy Minister Taylor will try to spin a projection of a 30-35 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 'beating' our extremely low target. 

Australia also falling short on our fair share of climate finance.

On reducing Methane emissions the report says Australia is one of the worst emitters, a reason to sign on to The Global Methane Pledge: 

"Among the major emitting countries analysed, China, the Russian Federation, India and Australia show the greatest emission gaps for methane, with their NDC reductions relative to their 2°C reductions less than the global mean for both 2030 and 2050. Methane reductions in 1.5°C least-cost pathways are 44 per cent at the global level by 2030 compared with 2015, rather than 34 per cent for 2°C." 

Morrison Net Zero 2050 Plan a fraud, with plans to double coal exports, new gas expansion

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor with 'Net zero Plan' slide

Prime Minister Scott Morrison accompanied by Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor announced Australia's commitment to Net Zero by 2050. But there will be no change to the 26-28% emissions reduction target by 2030 that was submitted in 2015 to the Paris Agreement.

ABC political analyst Laura Tingle commented "All this time to wait for a 15 page slide set with literally nothing new in it...." and "The plan is based on our existing policies".

Australia is taking a technology not taxes meet and cheat projection to Glasgow, which is another way of climate delay and denial while expanding fossil fuel production. 

"You will be supported by our data projection that will see us exceed our 2030 target with emissions reduction of up to 35% by 2030. We will keep our commitment, though, when it comes to our pledge that we made, and took to the last election of 26 to 28%, but we will meet it, and we will beat it. And we’ll beat it with emissions reductions we believe about the 35%." said Morrison. 

Yeah the work of all the states will see Australia achieve 37-42% emissions reduction. Federal Government doing SFA according to modelling on 2030 climate targets.

"This is the right plan for Australia – to summarise the outcome from it, which we’ll see in the plan, Australians $2,000 better off on average in 2050 compared with no Australian action." says Angus Taylor. 

But acting fast with renewables with strong 2030 targets showed citizens would be $5000 better off according to Business Council of Australia report. Guardian Australia Politics Live

Find below Ministerial press release, video of the press conference, some twitter commentary, and statements by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and shadow Climate spokesperson Chris Bowen.

Australia's 2030 climate targets for COP26

Source: Climate Council: from Paris to Glasgow report, 21 October, 2021

The Nationals have now given in principle support for Net zero by 2050. But 2050 is so far in the distance it is effectively irrelevant to what commitment and ambition Australia takes to the UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, COP26. 

Ratcheting up 2030 ambition and targets is what is really at issue. This was written into the Paris Agreement that countries increase ambition after 5 years. That time is now. Senate estimate questioning on 25 October reveals Australia's 2030 target not being updated (See update at end of post)

While we wait for the Liberal Party to reflect upon the Nationals Party confidential 3 page list of demands on committing Australia to Net Zero by 2050 target, lets reflect a bit more on the 2030 target for Australia. 

According to Climate Works Australia analysis, actions by Australian state governments has already set a de facto emissions target of 37 - 42 percent by 2030 based on a 2005 baseline eclipsing the 26-28 per cent set in 2015 by Prime Minister Abbott that formed part of Australia's initial Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and updated NDC this year.

ClimateWorks Australia: defacto national target set by state actions of 37-42%

For Australia to be in the ball park for dealing and to be taken seriously at the UN climate talks it really needs to match the commitments of USA, Europe and UK. The lower end of that range is 46 to 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 on 2005 baseline. The Climate Council says a science based target is for Australia to aim to reduce emissions by 75% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2035.

At the moment Prime Minister Morrison is taking to the G20 and Glasgow COP26 a commitment for net zero by 2050, but no change in 2030 climate targets as submitted in our NDC, no plan to increase our climate finance to our fair share, and no indication we will sign on to the Global Methane Pledge.

Business, Unions, Environment Organisations outline Australian clean energy transition vital for jobs and new export revenues

There has been a range of reports just published on why Australia should accelerate transition and transformation to a clean economy and phase out Fossil Fuels. The Business Council of Australia On Sunday 10 October The Business Council Of Australia (BCA) released a report, reversing previous stance on a net zero target and upgraded 2030 interim emissions reduction targets.

Four days later a report by global services consultancy Accenture commissioned jointly by the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF), WWF-Australia, ACTU and BCA was released - Sunshot: Australia’s opportunity to create 395,000 clean export jobs, charting a path for the country through the global transition to net-zero that delivers new jobs and replaces high carbon exports with clean export revenue.

These reports make it clear there are tremendous advantages in moving early with rapid ramp up of renewables, hydrogen, green steel, rare earth minerals, and services and training in the new energy economy. Thousands of jobs would be created, the great majority in regional areas allowing a transition of existing workforces with retraining in related or new skills. The benefits would flow to regional areas and the whole economy.

Australia's Technology not taxes Meet and Cheat Strategy for #COP26 while increasing fossil fuel production

Looks like Australia's technology not taxes Government slogan policy is part of its Meet and Cheat strategy.

Meet Australia's absurdly low 26-28% by 2030 climate targets for the UN climate talks in Glasgow - COP26 - ignoring that the Paris Agreement specifically requests that new NDCs with greater ambition be submitted, the ratchett mechanism.

While lobbying the IPCC to water down and delete need for phaseout of fossil fuel power, claiming carbon capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) (none of which is built) will keep these coal and gas stations running. Delete references to the power of the Fossil Fuel Lobby in influencing government decisions, despite this being fully referenced from multiple sources.

These comments were made on the 6th Assessment Working Group III report on mitigation (climate solutions) currently in preparation due for release in 2022.

Meanwhile Australia received a scathing profile in the 2021 Production Gap report highlighting Australia has no effective phaseout or transition plans for fossil fuel production, and in fact is planning to increase production.

There goes any semblance of credibility (if any was left) for the UN climate talks.

Exposing Australia's Smoke and Mirrors Climate Diplomacy | Good COP Bad Cop

The Australia Institute's  Richie Merzian and Alia Armistead discussion of the smoke and mirrors climate diplomacy by Australia over a long term, including The Australia clause. 

Carmichael coal mine threatens irreversible damage to Doongmabulla Springs and local ecology says new study

Doongmabulla Springs threatened by Carmichael mine

New hydrology research from Flinders and Darwin Universities highlights the Bravus (formerly Adani) Carmichael Coal mine being develeped in the Galilee Basin of Central Queensland may permanently damage the Doongmabulla Springs and the acquifer water it depends upon, and with it local ecosystems.

The natural springs are environmentally significant and are also of great spiritual and cultural significance to the Wangan and Jagalingou Indigenous nation.

Groundwater scientists warn more research is needed to measure and fully understand the aquifer sources that feed the springs.

“Even if the springs’ source aquifer is partially dewatered for mining operations, there is a serious threat of permanent damage,” says Flinders University PhD candidate Mr Robin Keegan-Treloar, the lead author of a new paper in the international Journal of Hydrology.

More ambitious climate action needed say Australians in 2021 Climate of the Nation Poll

The Australia Institute commissioned Climate of the Nation survey. This is  the longest continuous survey of community attitudes to climate change in the country.  The Climate Institute produced the report from 2007-2017 before the survey was taken over by the Australia Institute.

The quantitative survey was conducted by YouGov from 2-11 August 2021. The sample comprised 2,626 Australians aged 18 years and older. The overall margin of sampling error is 1.91%. The sample was distributed throughout Australia.

By the numbers:

• 82% of Australians are concerned climate change will result in more bushfires, more droughts and flooding, and animal and plant species extinction
• 82% of Australians support a phase-out of coal fired power stations
• 79% of Australians rank solar in their top three preferred energy sources, compared to 15% for coal and 19% for gas
• 75% of Australians are concerned about climate change
• 74% of Australians support state governments putting in place incentives for more renewable energy
• 71% of Australians support government subsidies to reduce the cost of purchasing an electric vehicle
• 70% of Australians would consider switching to electric hot water systems
• 69% think Australia should set targets and implement domestic action to limit global warming to 1.5-2°C and achieve net zero emissions
• 67% of Australians think Australia should be a world leader in finding solutions to climate change
• 66% of Australians think the Australian Government should stop new coal mines
• 64% of Australians support requiring all new car sales in Australia to be zero emissions vehicles by 2035
• 61% of Australians support a levy on fossil fuel exports to help pay for climate disasters
• 60% of Australians support Australia following the IEA pathway and not approving new gas, coal or oil projects
• 55x is the factor by which Australians overestimate gas and oil industry contribution to Commonwealth revenue
• 23% of Australians support the current level of fossil fuel industry subsidisation, compared to 57% that oppose it
• 12% of Australians prefer Australia’s economic recovery to be primarily powered by gas, while 63% prefer renewables investment

Richie Merzian, Climate & Energy Program Director, The Australia Institute, sums up the survey:

Climate of the Nation 2021 reveals the extent of the hunger Australians have for leadership on climate change. Two-thirds agree that Australia should be a world leader in finding solutions to climate change. More than two-thirds want Australia to commit to net zero emissions and set targets to limit global warming to 1.5-2°C. At the very least, that requires halving Australia’s emissions this decade (approximately doubling the current 2030 emissions reduction target) and not approving new gas, coal, or oil projects. While Australians support changes at a policy level, they are also willing to make changes themselves; to electrify their homes and their vehicles and power them using sun, wind, water and batteries.

Australian diplomacy in 2021 has thus far been disappointing. Our leaders have stubbornly resisted increasingly urgent calls by the United Nations and our key allies to increase Australia’s climate ambition and decrease our reliance on fossil fuels. 

I am not going to even try and summarise each section of this report but present 13 of what I consider to be the key graphs. 

Watch the launch of this survey report 13 October 2021, with Labor Shadow Spokesperson for Climate Change Chris Bowen on Youtube or below.

The Graphs showing community concern

References:

• The Australia Institute, 13 October 2021, Climate of the Nation 2021. Tracking Australia's attitudes towards climate change and energy. https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/climate-of-the-nation-2021/

This is Loss and Damage - Who Pays? It must feature at COP26 in Glasgow

In the powerful new film, "This is Loss and Damage - Who Pays?", climate activist, Vanessa Nakate, and Loss and Damage experts, Professor Saleem Huq and Harjeet Singh, offer a compelling way out of the Loss and Damage finance stalemate: an international mechanism funded by the fossil fuel polluters who caused the crisis.

The film is part of the launch of the Make Polluters Pay campaign, led by a coalition of  charities and organisations in the leadup to the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, COP26. The campaign aims to raise public awareness about the urgent need for loss and damage funding, paid for by the biggest polluters. 

So what are some possible mechanisms to raise money for a Loss and Damage Fund? A Robin Hood style Financial Transactions Tax is possible. A Climate Damages Tax levied on existing fossil fuels extracted.

Panel discussion of Loss and Damage video.