A North Atlantic nasty surprise: AMOC slowing faster than expected

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowing much faster than expected

It seems that the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster disaster movie The Day after Tommorrow, while highly exaggerated, had the seed of scientific fact based upon the possible disruption that could occur from the slowdown or catastrophic cessation of the Atlantic ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the thermohaline circulation or Great ocean conveyor belt.

A new study by Rahmstorf et al (2015) published in Nature Climate Change has found evidence for a slowdown of the overturning circulation. This is based upon multiple lines of observation suggesting that over recent decades the current system has been weaker than ever before in the last century, or even in the last millennium.

The Gulf Stream is part of this circulation system with warm waters, which are naturally lighter, flowing north, and responsible for the mild climate of north western Europe. In the sub-polar region these waters cool, become more dense, and sink to the bottom before they start flowing south along the ocean bottom towards the tropics, then the South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The conveyor belt of currents connects the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific and Southern Oceans providing heat transfer and mixing throughout the globe.

Related Links: What’s going on in the North Atlantic? at Realclimate Blog | New Research Shows Exceptional Slowdown In Major Atlantic Ocean Currents Greg Laden's Science Blog

Scientist warns of Global warming impact on Ocean Circulation

Global warming could halt ocean circulation, with harmful results warns an atmospheric scientist. “This is a dangerous, human-induced climate change,” said Michael Schlesinger, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “The shutdown of the thermohaline circulation has been characterized as a high-consequence, low-probability event. Our analysis, including the uncertainties in the problem, indicates it is a high-consequence, high-probability event.”

Schlesinger presented his warnings at a talk at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Montreal on December 8, 2005.

How Global Warming May Cause the Next Ice Age

New research on the Great Ocean conveyor belt and climatology show How Global Warming May Cause the Next Ice Age (Thom Hartmann). A report in The Independent claims new research also suggests Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming. (See also Bill Maguire in The Guardian reproduced below: Will global warming trigger a new ice age?

Some reports claim Climate Collapse is The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare (Fortune).

Current models of climate change assume a gradual process, but some geoscientists say Sudden Climate Change is the historical norm (See Alley et al 2003 in Science: Abrupt Climate Change).

While there is a vigorous debate in scientific circles over whether global warming matters, Tony Blair's chief scientist David A King has launched a withering attack on President George Bush for failing to tackle climate change, which he says is more serious than terrorism. (Read his letter published in Science, January 2004: Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?)

While Bush dithers on climate change for the benefit of corporations, New England states confront Bush with climate change plans.

The World Health Organisation recently said 150,000 people died due to global warming (The Guardian) in 2000, and the death toll could double again in the next 30 years if current trends are not reversed.

Another scientific paper predicted Global Warming to Kill Off more than 10 per cent of Species by 2050 (Thomas et al 2014 in Nature: Extinction risk from climate change)

Global Warming is likely to trigger a potential water crisis globally, and Hotter summers, fewer frosts for Australia according to the CSIRO.

Debates and Actions around and outside the Climate Conference in Milan in December 2003 highlighted the root cause of climate change, the fossil fuel economy. According to a recent report to US Dept. of Energy on Peak Oil, "Peaking will be catastrophic".

The lack of action by the United Nations, should make people around the world aware not to depend on states and corporations, but instead to create social-ecological alternatives in our daily lives. Or maybe its time to start preparing for Life after the Oil Crash.

Links: Rising Tide climate Justice Network | Vital Climate Graphics | The discovering of Global Warming