This is my digital diary of Australia at COP29 in Baku. I will be following whats going on at in Baku online. Follow with me. I'll be updating this blog post regularly up to the end of November 2024.
President-Designate for COP 29 is Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan's Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources. Azerbaijan is a repressive state with a poor human rights record according to Human Rights Watch in leadup to a meeting in Bonn in June.
Australia will likely be represented at the ministerial level by Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. See Tracking Australian Ministers and Australian pledges at COP29. Australia is lobbying to hold COP31 in 2026, and an announcement of host is likely in Baku. The city of Belem in Brazil is holding COP30 in 2025.
I'll be including detail from IISD Earth Negotiating Bulletin for each day. I might pluck details from the full report, especially relevant to Australia, and will post the 'In the Corridors" section which provides a concise 'vibe' summary on the negotiations. I might include details from other sources as needed.
Links: UNFCCC COP29 website for documents. Azerbaijan COP29 website. Civil Society COP28 Climate Justice Hub, DCCEEW international climate action page. Australia at COP29. Carbon Brief Negotiating Text Tracker | Fossil of the Day awards leader Board
14 October 2024 - Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 in 2023. Is nature’s carbon sink failing? Decline in global carbon sink uptake of emissions for both land and oceans. The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating (Guardian) "In Australia, huge soil carbon losses from extreme heat and drought in the vast interior – known as rangelands – are likely to push its climate target out of reach if emissions continue to rise, a study this year found."
13 October 2024 - Carbon Pollution from Australian cremations set to double. Michael Robertson, chief executive of Adelaide Cemeteries, said if Australia mandated low-emissions cremators like those used in Europe, an additional 6000 tonnes of carbon and other particulates could be diverted from the atmosphere every year by 2050. (The Age)
12 October 2024 - Australia facing one of the hottest summers on record, according to BOM prediction (ABC News) due to exceptional heat in our surrounding oceans. It suggests more rain than average, warmer days than average. Look out for hotter nights in particular. (BOM: Climate outlook for November to February) More immediatley... Dome of sweltering NT heat set to spread across vast swathes of Australia (Guardian) Hot wet summers becoming the norm (SMH)
12 October 2024 - Rooftop solar causing more Minimum System Load events in Australian NEM grid (a good problem to have) (Guardian) Clean Energy Council says subsidising household batteries provides a solution to bring down their cost. (Clean Energy Council) Another option is cutailment.
12 October 2024 - USA - Impact of Hurricane Helene and Milton. Scientists say Climate Change Made Hurricane Milton Stronger, With Heavier Rain (Inside Climate News) Milton’s rainfall was made 20-30% more intense by Climate Change, the intensity of rain made 2X more likely. The storm made 10% more intense and storms of a similar intensity now have a 40% greater likelihood of occurring according to a rapid attribution study (World Weather Attribution). Climate change behind almost half cost of Milton and Helene damage in Florida (Imperial College) Grist estimated the damage costs of Hurricane Helene may be $US200 billion, largely not covered by insurance. (Grist) Milton could cost insurers alone up to $US100 billion. (SMH) The Guardian view on Hurricane Milton and other disasters: extreme politics is worsening extreme weather (Guardian) Straining resources with competing climate disasters (Guardian)
11 October 2024 - Victoria. Golden Plans wind farm switched on. It is so far the largest wind farm in the Southern Hemisphere, and the biggest onshore wind farm in the world. (The Age) 40 local landholders, 52 turbines. Another 163 turbines due by the end of 2026. When complete, its 215 turbines will produce more than 4000 GWh of energy each year – enough for 765,000 homes and 9 per cent of Victoria’s energy requirements. Payments to landholders will provide drought-proof income, plus local community fund and payments to the local Council.
11 October 2024 - new research questions integrity of Australian carbon offsets scheme. ‘It’s almost beyond belief’: Findings blast Australia’s biggest carbon offset scheme (The Age) Major administrative failings in Australia’s carbon credit scheme. “The Clean Energy Regulator’s administration of Australia’s carbon credit scheme has let us all down terribly,” Professor Butler said. “They’ve used hundreds of millions of dollars of public money to build a house of cards that is enabling climate inaction and will render the Safeguard Mechanism, ineffective. The failure of this scheme will only become more obvious as time goes on.”(UNSW)
10 October 2024 - Global wildlife populations have plunged by an average of 73% in 50 years, a new scientific assessment by WWF UK has found, as humans continue to push ecosystems to the brink of collapse. (Guardian)
8 October 2024 - Latest science assessment says World is in deep peril with the Climate Crisis. "We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis." William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Jillian W Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning, Cássio Cardoso Pereira, Beverly E Law, Thomas W Crowther, The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth, BioScience, 2024;, biae087, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087 Summary at (The Conversation)
8 October 2024 - Environment Minister announces ‘Huge environmental win’: Australia to protect 52% of its oceans, more than any other country, Plibersek says. Sub-Antarctic marine park expansion welcomed but scientists say some areas important to penguins and seals missed out on sanctuary-level protection (Guardian), and under the Biodiversity convention definition only about 25% is now adequately protected according to Dr Ian Cresswell.(Guardian) Meanwhile 400km from the Nature Positive Summit The NSW Forestry Corporation has started logging in Bulga state forest, inland from Port Macquarie,in habitat of threatened species including endangered koalas and the endangered greater glider. (Guardian)
7 October 2024 - Australian Government spends around 50 times more on subsidising activities that harm the environment than it spends on helping biodiversity each year argues the Biodiversity Council. The assessment found that around 4% of the federal budget goes to subsidising activities that are likely to have a medium to high adverse impact on biodiversity; a total of $26.3 billion per year. (Biodiversity Council)
7 October 224 - Japan backs fossil fuels in Southeast Asian “zero emission” initiative. Japan’s Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) supported 56 projects using fossil fuel technologies in Southeast Asia — including LNG and carbon capture (Climate Change News) Zero emissions or fossil fuels? Tracking Japan’s AZEC projects. Results show AZEC is supporting prolonged fossil fuel use (Zero Carbon Analytics)
7 October 2024 - Australian Security Leaders Climate Group calls for overhaul of federal government's climate threat preparedness strategy (ABC News) Read the Australia Security Leaders Climate Group National Climate Security Summit Communiqué: Addressing the threat of climate change to Australia’s security landscape (ASLCG)
6 October 2024 - Australia claims progress in climate action, while fossil fuel expansion for export continues under Labor claims Energy analyst Ketan Joshi - The blurred self image of progressive climate villains. It includes some analysis of the effectiveness of the Safeguard Mechanism: "there hasn’t been any change in total emissions since the time it became active in July 2023" (KetanJoshi)
4 October 2024 - Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds. Research challenges idea that sending liquefied natural gas around the world is cleaner alternative to burning coal (Guardian) "Overall, the greenhouse gas footprint for LNG as a fuel source is 33% greater than that for coal when analyzed using GWP20 (160 g CO2-equivalent/MJ vs. 120 g CO2-equivalent/MJ). Even considered on the time frame of 100 years after emission (GWP100), which severely understates the climatic damage of methane, the LNG footprint equals or exceeds that of coal." (Energy, Science and Engineering Journal) Debunked: All those speeches rolled out over the last decade, especially by Labor politicians, justifying gas expansion as a lower emissions 'transition fuel'.
4 October 2024 - Ex-carbon offsetting boss charged in New York with multimillion-dollar fraud (Guardian) Wonder if the same could happen in Australia? Given integrity issues and supervision of Carbon Offsets? See The Age 16 Sep 2024, ‘Extreme risk’: Carbon watchdog mismanaged conflicts, ‘intimidated’ scientists
3 October 2024 - Australia sees a rise in "greenhushing," where carbon-neutral firms underreport their sustainability efforts. This silence stems from fears of scrutiny and low consumer interest. (Groundreport.In)
3 October 2024 - Gas power in future grid will be “tiny” and its cost exorbitant, IEEFA report finds (RenewEconomy). IEEFA claims while the capacity of gas generating capacity increases, its use in the generation mix actually falls significantly. Future role of gas in the NEM is likely overstated (IEEFA)
2 October 2024 - Two cancer doctors highlight Beetaloo gas fracking and Middlearm petrochemical hub could generate a 'cancer alley' in the Northern Territory in a letter to the Medical Journal of Australia. "Australia risks creating its own “sacrifice zone”, harming the health of its people and contributing irrevocably to the climate crisis." (MJA)
2 October 2024 - WA Labor government accused of shelving climate laws as emissions continue to rise (Guardian) "WA is the only Australian state without a 2030 emissions reduction target. National data says climate pollution in the five eastern states fell by at least 27% between 2005 and 2022 while rising 8% in WA, largely due to the state’s expanding liquified natural gas (LNG) export industry"
1 October 2024 - Tuvalu climate minister declares Australia’s coalmine decision ‘immoral’, akin to drowning Pacific neighbours (Guardian) “I have made my view on new coal projects very clear at last month’s Pacific Islands Forum: fossil fuels are killing us, all of us. It is therefore immoral and unacceptable to any country to open new fossil fuel projects, as Australia has recently done with the three coalmine expansion projects it has just approved,” Talia told Guardian Australia.
1 October 2024 - Azerbaijan is using Cop29 to ‘peacewash’ its global image (The Conversation) See also Climate Action Tracker 25 September assessment rating Azerbaijan as Critically Insufficient. "Azerbaijan appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward on climate action. Its renewable energy targets remain weak. Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on fossil fuel production and the government plans to increase fossil gas extraction by more than 30% over the coming decade. Emissions from exported fossil fuels are twice as high as domestic emissions. (Climate Action Tracker)
1 October 2024 - Highest Annual Growth of Renewables Jobs in 2023, Reaching 16.2 Million (IRENA) The levelised cost of electricity produced from most forms of renewable power continued to fall year-on-year in 2023, with solar PV leading the cost reductions, followed by offshore wind according to a new report on renewable generation costs (IRENA)
30 September 2024 - Nature Positive market? Economics editor Ross Gittins nails the problem of nature market offsets and credits and the solution: "how else can we pursue nature positive? Well, here’s a radical thought: governments could stop logging native forests, stop further land clearing, stop subsidising fossil fuels, stop permitting new mines and gas fields, and start spending a lot of money restoring land and habitat." (The Age)
