Thursday, December 30, 2010
Caption: Long-term change in annual mean surface temperature anomalies over the globe. The bars indicate anomalies of surface temperature in each year. The blue line indicates five-year running mean, and the red line indicates a long-term linear trend. Anomalies are deviations from the normal (1971-2000 average).
2010 was hot. According to the Japan Meteorological Organisation (JMO) it was the second warmest year on record since 1891, when comprehensive data first started being kept.
In 2010 the JMO estimated the global average surface temperature anomaly was 0.36C, slightly lower than the 0.37C recorded in 1998 and the warmest year on record in the JMO data. The global temperature anomaly is based on the long term average temperature between 1971 and 2000.
The annual global average surface temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.68°C per century. For 2010 the average temperature over land is expected to hit the warmest record.
According to the JMO the hottest ten years and the extent of their temperature anomalies were:
1. 1998 +0.37C
2. 2010 +0.36C
3. 2005 +0.32C
4. 2009 +0.31C
5. 2006 +0.31C
6. 2003 +0.31C
7. 2002 +0.31C
8. 2007 +0.28C
9. 2004 +0.27C
10. 2001 +0.27C
The JMO have published their preliminary findings based upon data from January to November - a complete analysis will be released in early February. A number of organisations track the global temperature record using slightly different methodologies, hence slight differences in their graphs and ranking of the warmest years. (Goddard Institute of Space Studies ranks 2005 as the warmest year on record)
* JMO media release, Dec 21, 2010 - Global Temperature in 2010 Most Likely Second Warmest (preliminary) (PDF)
* GISS, January 21, 2010 - 2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade