- It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today
- Continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C
- Current commitments for 2030 are not being met; even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C
What needs to be done?
Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in February 2025 – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years.
The report finds that a failure to increase ambition in new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies. The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming.
Global average temperatures are already pushing close to 1.5C withn the acceleration of global warming in the last two years. We already have scientists warning of underestimation of the risk in collapse of ocean circulation (AMOC) which would produce catastrophic impacts.
“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in launching the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.
“Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.” (See Below for video and transcript)
The report also details what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
The report highlights:
1. Global greenhouse gas emissions set a new record of 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023 3, a 1.3 per cent increase from 2022 levels
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2. There are large disparities between the current, per capita and historic emissions of major emitters and world regions. GHG emissions across the G20 members also increased in 2023 and accounted for 77 per cent of global emissions. If all African Union countries are added to the G20 total, more than doubling the number of countries from 44 to 99, total emissions increase by just 5 percentage points to 82 per cent. The six largest GHG emitters accounted for 63 per cent of global GHG emissions. By contrast, least developed countries accounted for only 3 per cent.
3. Progress in ambition and action since the initial NDCs plateaued and countries are still off track to deliver on the globally insufficient mitigation pledges for 2030. Of the parties to the Paris Agreement, 90 per cent have updated or replaced their initial NDC from the time of adoption of the Paris Agreement. However, most of this improvement came in the lead-up to the twenty-sixth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 26) in 2021. Despite requests from the last three COPs to further strengthen 2030 targets, only one country has strengthened its target since COP 28.
4. Implied emissions trajectories of the G20 members towards net zero show reasons for concern. Peaking GHG emissions is a prerequisite to achieving net zero. Seven G20 members have not yet peaked emissions, defined as having reached maximum emissions at least five years before the year for which the latest inventory data is available (China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Republic of Korea, and Türkiye). For these countries, efforts to peak emissions earlier and at a lower level with rapid reductions thereafter will facilitate achievement of their net-zero targets. For most of the ten G20 members where emissions have already peaked (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, European Union, Japan, Russian Federation, South Africa, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America), their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals, unless they accelerate action now and overachieve their 2030 NDC targets. For these countries, accelerating progress in the near term will reduce cumulative emissions while avoiding reliance on unfeasibly rapid decarbonization rates later. The current NDCs and net-zero targets that countries have set themselves suggest a much narrower window of time between peaking and net zero for the countries that have not yet peaked than for those that have
5. The emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 remains large compared both with pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C and to 2°C
6. Time lost since 2020 increases global warming projections and reduces the feasibility of bridging the gap
7. Immediate action matters: temperature projections based on the conditional NDC scenario are 0.5°C lower than those based on existing policies. A continuation of the mitigation effort implied by current policies is estimated to limit global warming to a maximum of 3.1°C (range: 1.9–3.8) over the course of the century. The full implementation and continuation of the level of mitigation effort implied by unconditional or conditional NDC scenarios lower these projections to 2.8°C (range: 1.9–3.7) and 2.6°C (range: 1.9–3.6), respectively. All with at least a 66 per cent chance (figure ES.4)
8. The G20 has a key responsibility in closing the emissions gap. It is both cost-effective and fair for the G20 to reduce emissions faster than the global average
9. Emission reduction potentials for 2030 and 2035 are substantial, but time is short and realizing the potentials requires overcoming persisting challenges and massively boosting policies, support and finance. Increased deployment of just two proven and cost-competitive options – solar photovoltaic and wind energy – makes up 27 per cent of the total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. In forestry, reduced deforestation, increased reforestation and improved forest management present readily available low-cost options with large emission reduction potentials of about 19 and 20 per cent of the total potential in 2030 and 2035, respectively. Other important and readily available mitigation options include demand-side measures, efficiency measures, and electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.
Transport Mitigation measures and potential
The emission reduction potential for the transport sector is estimated to be 3.2 GtCO2e/year (1.6–4.8 GtCO2e/year) for 2030 and 4.8 GtCO2e/year (2.4–7.2 GtCO2e/year) for 2035. The primary contributor to emission reductions is road transport, with an estimated reduction potential of 2.5 and 3.6 GtCO2e/year in 2030 and 2035, respectively. Other contributions come from shipping and aviation. Achieving the full mitigation potential would reduce emissions by 36 per cent in 2030 and 53 per cent in 2035 compared with the current policies projections (for an overview, see table 6.2 and table E.3 in appendix E). More detailed information on sources, calculations and considerations are provided in UNEP-CCC and Common Futures (2024).
In road transport, important contributors to emission reduction potential are the replacement of gasoline and petrol cars with electric vehicles and the shift to public transport and (e-)bikes. In recent years, the transport sector has seen rapid growth in electric vehicle sales. This increased adoption of electric vehicles is included in the current policy baseline scenario (UNEP-CCC and Common Futures 2024).
In its Stated Policies Scenario model, the IEA’s recent Global EV Outlook (IEA 2024a) shows an increased contribution of electric vehicles to avoided emissions by 2030 compared with earlier assessments, growing from 0.2 GtCO2e/year in the 2020 Global EV Outlook (IEA 2020) to 0.8 GtCO2e/year in the 2024 Global EV Outlook. However, a further increased uptake of electric vehicles is estimated to have an additional emission reduction potential of 0.4 and 0.9 GtCO2e/year by 2030 and 2035, respectively (IEA 2024a). In addition, a shift to public transport and (e-)bikes can significantly reduce emissions from road transport in urban areas, with an estimated potential of 1.4 GtCO2e/year by 2035 (Institute for Transportation & Development Policy and University of California, Davis 2015).
Shipping is projected to contribute up to 0.2 GtCO2e/year of emission reduction potential in 2030 (Faber, van Seters and Scholten 2023) and up to 0.4 GtCO2e by 2035 (IEA 2023b), specifically from energy efficiency, operational optimization and a shift to zero- and low-emission fuels like biofuels, hydrogen, methanol and ammonia.
Aviation can reduce emissions by up to 0.5 GtCO2e/year by 2030 and 0.8 GtCO2e/year by 2035 compared with the baseline scenario (Bergero et al. 2023; IEA 2023b) respectively, of projected business-as-usual aviation emissions in 2050. However, further reductions will depend on replacing fossil jet fuel with large quantities of net-zero emissions biofuels or synthetic fuels (that is, 2.5–19.8 EJ of sustainable aviation fuels, mainly through limiting the increase in demand for aviation, a shift to alternative fuels and improvements in operations and aircraft technology.
Barriers and enablers for implementation
Materializing the identified options for mitigating transport emissions faces a variety of challenges, including technological dependencies, regulatory changes, social and cultural factors, and shortfall of significant investments (Geels et al. 2017). For example, promoting car-free mobility and reduced aviation requires changes in individual behaviour and societal acceptance (often slow to happen), an increase in electric vehicles and high-speed railways requires urban planning changes and significant infrastructure investments, and developing sustainable fuels for aviation and shipping demands both international coordination and investment in research and devlopment (Sclar et al. 2019; Borén 2020; Marinaro et al. 2020; Shukla et al. eds. 2022). Addressing these barriers depends on a comprehensive and coordinated effort from policymakers, industry stakeholders and communities. The transport sector will need between US$1.1 trillion and US$3.6 trillion per year by 2035 (Strinati et al. 2024). A significant portion of this investment will be directed towards low-emission vehicles, particularly electric vehicles and the infrastructure needed to support them, such as chargers.
Secretary-General's speech for the Launch of the UNEP 2024 Emissions Gap Report
The message of today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: We are teetering on a planetary tight rope.
Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster – with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.
This report shows annual greenhouse gas emissions at an all-time high – rising 1.3 per cent last year. They must fall 9 per cent each year to 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the very worst of climate change.
Current policies are taking us towards a catastrophic 3.1 degrees Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century.
As this report rightly puts it, people and planet cannot afford more hot air.
The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.
Around the world, people are paying a terrible price.
- Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes;
- Record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas;
- Record rains are resulting in biblical floods.
Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5 degree limit. But only with a surge in ambition and support.
The upcoming United Nations climate conference – COP29 – must drive progress in two ways.
First, COP29 starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans – or NDCs – by next year. Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees.
That means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole economy – pushing progress in every sector.
And they must wean us off our fossil fuel addiction: showing how governments will phase them out – fast and fairly; and contributing to global goals to accelerate renewables rollout and halt and reverse deforestation.
The largest economies – the G20 members, responsible for around 80 per cent of all emissions – must lead. I urge first-movers to come forward.
Second, finance will be front and centre at COP29.
Developing countries urgently need serious support to accelerate the transition to clean energy and deal with the violent weather they are already facing.
COP29 must agree a new finance goal that unlocks the trillions of dollars they need. And provides confidence it will be delivered.
We know the price of climate inaction is far greater.
This would require a significant increase in concessional public finance, that can be complemented by innovative sources, such as fossil fuel extraction levies.
The COP29 outcome must also send clear signals, to drive action on debt relief and reform of the Multilateral Development Banks to make them bigger and bolder.
Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time.
We’re out of time.
Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.
Thank you.
References
2024 Emissions Gap Report, UNEP, 24 October 2024, https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
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