Australian Targets

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Surging seas driven by the climate crisis already impacting Island nations says UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

The Pacific Islands Forum is underway in Tonga. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a speech to the opening of the forum. 

He highlighted in his speech (see below) the need for a just transition for the phaseout of fossil fuels and called for all members of the G20 to step up and lead, by phasing out the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately. 

While Australia was not explicitly named, we are the only member state of the Forum involved in fossil fuel expansion and export.

"When governments sign new oil and gas licenses, they are signing away our future." said Guterres.

He also called for national climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions – to be submitted by next year, aligning with the 1.5-degree upper limit of global heating.

Guterres also launched two new reports from Tonga highlighting the acceleration of sea level rise and the impacts already occurring on low lying Pacific Nations.

Surging Seas in a Warming Climate Report

The first report is a Technical Briefing by the UN Climate Action Team on Surging seas in a warming world, which summarises the latest science on accelerating sea level rise since the IPCC 6th assessment report in 2021. 

Since the IPCC report there has been substantial emerging research on climate ‘tipping points’ and ice-sheet dynamics, which is raising alarm among scientists that future sea-level rise (SLR) could be much larger and occur sooner than previously thought.

The technical brief provides a summary of the latest science on SLR and its present-day and projected impacts — including coastal flooding — at a global and regional level, with a focus on major coastal cities in the Group of Twenty (G20) countries and on the Pacific Small Island Developing States (Pacific SIDS).

The findings demonstrate that SLR is affecting the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities and low-lying island nations around the world today, and it is accelerating. The climate actions and decisions taken by political leaders and policymakers in the coming months and years will determine how devastating these impacts become and how quickly they worsen.

Some of the more recent research indicates sea level rise is accelerating from polar ice sheets which in low likelihood but high impact scenarios would have catastrophic sea level rise impacts. 

"The timing and spatial extent of ice loss due to ice-sheet instability processes pose the biggest source of uncertainty in projecting the magnitude and rate of future SLR and could lead to higher SLR than the ‘likely’ range before 2100.

The AR6 also assessed a low-likelihood, highimpact storyline, which considers faster-thanprojected ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland under the SSP5-8.5 highest-emissions scenario. In this case, global mean SLR might exceed well above the ‘likely’ range before 2100, leading to a 95th-percentile estimate of projected future SLR as high as 2.3m in 2100, relative to 1995-2014."

Nor is overshooting the 1.5C temperature target and be able to bring carbon dioxide levels back down in the later part of the century considered safe. The Technical note highlights an August 2024 study (Möller et al 2024) suggesting that every additional 0.1°C of temporary overshoot above 1.5°C — even if temperatures later decrease — increases the risk of triggering tipping points.

The report highlights the existential crisis facing Pacific Nations:

"SLR poses an alarming threat to human life and socio-economic livelihoods and the implications for adaptation and loss and damage are profound and far-reaching. Severely accelerated SLR from rapid ice-sheet loss could bring impacts forward by decades, and adaptation would need to occur much faster and on a much greater scale than ever performed in the past.55 An estimated 90% of Pacific Islanders live within 5km of the coastlines. In the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, over 60% of the populations live within 1km of the coast. Most Pacific islands have over 50% of their infrastructure within 500m of the coast. In Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, over 95% of the infrastructure is in the LECZ."

The report  calls for deep rapid and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions:

Deep, rapid, and sustained cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are needed NOW to stay within a 1.5°C long-term warming trajectory. At the same time, effective coastal adaptation and investment in resilience and implementation must be scaled up worldwide, especially in the SIDS, to minimize growing SLR impacts and risks. For example, from 2005 to 2100, the Pacific SIDS could see around 18cm higher SLR on average under a currentpolicies (3°C) pathway instead of a 1.5°C-aligned pathway, with consequential impacts and risks.

Based on global mitigation scenarios assessed in the IPCC AR6 and developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a 1.5°C-aligned transition away from fossil fuels entails: (i) no new coal mines and coal plants, and no new upstream oil and gas projects, as of 2021; (ii) cutting global fossil fuel production and consumption by at least 30% by 2030, and by 40% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels; and (iii) phasing out unabated coal power by 2030 in advanced economies and by 2040 worldwide.

Is Australia listening? Australia has so far opened 12 new coal and gas projects since the Labor Government came to power in May 2022. The Government is yet to add a Climate Trigger to National Environment laws, despite the Prime Minister proposing such a climate trigger when he was a backbencher in 2005. 

WMO on State of the Climate for South West Pacific  

The second report is by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023

At the press conference in Geneva the WMO General Secretary sent a message "We are sending a red alert to the world on sea level rise and the impacts of climate change"

Key messages from the WMO report include: 

  • Climate change threatens the future of Pacific islands; 
  • Sea level rise accelerates and is above global average; 
  • Ocean heating and acidification harm ecosystems and livelihoods; 
  • Early warnings are integral part of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
“Climate change has become a global crisis and is the defining challenge that humanity currently faces. Communities, economies and ecosystems throughout the South-West Pacific region are significantly affected by its cascading impacts. It is increasingly evident that we are fast running out of time to turn the tide,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 

“The ocean has taken up more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and is undergoing changes which will be irreversible for centuries to come. Human activities have weakened the capacity of the ocean to sustain and protect us and – through sea level rise – are transforming a lifelong friend into a growing threat,” she said. “Already we are seeing more coastal flooding, shoreline retreat, saltwater contamination of freshwater supplies and displacement of communities.”  

“A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril,” said Mr Guterres.“ Global average sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate. The ocean is overflowing.” 

“The reason is clear: greenhouse gases – overwhelmingly generated by burning fossil fuels – are cooking our planet. And the sea is taking the heat – literally.” 

He highlighted that despite accounting for just 0.02 per cent of global emissions – the Pacific islands are uniquely exposed. Their average elevation is just one to two meters above sea level; 90 percent of the population live within 5 kilometres of the coast and half the infrastructure is within 500 metres of the sea. 

"But the problem is global", he said.  

“Surging seas are coming for us all – together with the devastation of fishing, tourism, and the Blue Economy. Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas threatened by our swelling ocean. Yet even though some sea level rise is inevitable, its scale, pace, and impact are not. That depends on our decisions,” said Mr Guterres, reiterating his urgent calls for drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and increasing in climate adaptation.  

 ABC News report from Tonga at the start of the Pacific Islands Forum:

Secretary-General's remarks to the opening of the Pacific Islands Forum

Your Royal Highnesses, Excellencies, Dear Friends,

All protocol observed,

It is a great pleasure to address the Pacific Islands Forum. And allow me to express my deep gratitude to the government and the people of Tonga for their incredible hospitality.

We meet at a turbulent time for our world. Raging conflicts; an escalating climate crisis; inequalities and injustices everywhere and the 2030 Agenda is faltering.

But this region is a beacon of solidarity and strength, environmental stewardship and peace. The world has much to learn from the Pacific and the world must also step up to support your initiatives.

Excellencies,

This is a region of fearless seafarers, expert fishers, and deep ancestral knowledge of the ocean.  But humanity is treating the sea like a sewer. Plastic pollution is choking sealife. Greenhouse gases are causing ocean heating, acidification, and a dramatic and accelerating rise in sea levels.

Pacific islands are showing the way to protect our climate, our planet and our ocean:

  • By declaring a Climate Emergency and pushing for action.
  • And with your Declarations on Sea Level Rise, and aspirations for a just transition to a fossil-fuel-free Pacific.
  • The young people of the Pacific have taken the climate crisis all the way to the International Court of Justice.
  • You have also rightly recognized that this is a security crisis – and taken steps to manage those risks together.

I want to express my full support to the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, and I will do my best to help mobilize international resources for the Pacific Resilience Facility and to engage with all the relevant initiatives the Pacific Island Forum.

Excellencies,

The survival plan for our planet is simple:

  • Establishing a just transition for the phaseout of the fossil fuels that are responsible for 85 per cent of the emissions of greenhouse gases.
  • All countries must produce national climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions – by next year, aligning with the 1.5-degree upper limit of global heating.
  • The G20 – the biggest emitters responsible for 80 per cent of those emissions – must step up and lead, by phasing out the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately.
  • When governments sign new oil and gas licenses, they are signing away our future.

The Pacific Island states’ ambition for a fossil-fuel-free Pacific is a blueprint for the G20 and for the world.  But the region urgently needs substantial finance, capacities and technology to speed up the transition and to invest in adaptation and resilience.

That is why we have been calling for the reform of the international financial architecture, for a massive increase in the lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks, for debt relief programmes that work, including for middle income countries that are in distress, and an enhanced redistribution of Special Drawing Rights, to benefit developing countries and in particular Small Islands Developing States.

Excellencies,

The decisions world leaders take in the coming years will determine the fate, first of Pacific Islanders – but also of everyone else. In other words: If we save the Pacific, we save the world.

Pacific Island States have a moral and practical imperative to take your leadership and your voice to the global stage. You demonstrated this leadership once again with the General Assembly’s endorsement of the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index. We must now make sure that international financial institutions include them in their criteria for operations.

The Summit of the Future in New York next month will be an opportunity to reform and update global institutions, so they are fit for the world of today and tomorrow. Across the board, the Summit aims to provide developing countries with a greater voice on the global stage, including at the UN Security Council and in international financial institutions.

I urge Pacific Island States to make your voices heard and heard loudly because the world needs your leadership. Thank you very much.

References:

United Nations, 26 August 2024, Secretary-General's remarks to the opening of the Pacific Islands Forum https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2024-08-26/secretary-generals-remarks-the-opening-of-the-pacific-islands-forum

Bianca Hall, The Age, 27 August 2024, Pacific in peril: UN urges Australia to block new coal and gas projects https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/pacific-in-peril-un-urges-australia-to-block-new-coal-and-gas-projects-20240823-p5k4ue.html 

UN News, 26 August 2024, From Tonga, Guterres appeals for ‘a surge in funds to deal with surging seas’ https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153606

Möller, T., Högner, A.E., Schleussner, CF. et al. Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks. Nat Commun 15, 6192 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0

UN media, 27 August 2024, Geneva Press Briefing: WMO, OSE, OCHA, UNHCR, OHCHR, WHO. The section on the UN Secretary General and WMO report starts at 1:29:00 https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1f/k1fd6uoehg?kalturaStartTime=5368 

No comments:

Post a Comment