Ahead of the UN Climate Conference in Dubai, COP28, Climate Analytics researched when global greenhouse gas emissions may peak. There is a 70% chance global emissions may peak in 2023. COP28 needs to push strongly for tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions, and phasing out fossil fuels.
Based on the science, The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach.
Emissions are set to rise again in 2023.
The analysis shows there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions.
This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions – meeting the IPCC deadline.
The report says that the "continued explosive growth of wind and solar in particular would push fossil fuels out of the power sector, leading to peak coal in 2023 and peak gas in 2024. Meanwhile, continued growth in electric vehicles could lead to peak oil in 2025.
Under the baseline (current policies) and low effort scenarios emissions would flat-line, and we would still have trouble meeting Paris Agreement Temperature targets. Under the accelerated scenario emissions would fall by 10 per cent by 2030. Still far from adequate.
"In the continued acceleration scenario, global emissions fall 10% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels – less than a quarter of the way towards the 43% cuts the IPCC says is needed to keep the Paris Agreement goal within reach. Although a key milestone, a global peak must be followed by a sharp and sustained fall in emissions over the following years.
"By 2030, we will need to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, accelerate the electrification of energy demand sectors, halt deforestation, and slash methane emissions by over 30%. Global clean energy investments need to be ramped up 2.5-fold, with greatest increases happening in emerging economies. New fossil fuel production plans will need to be axed, with fossil fuel production falling around 40% over the decade on the road to a full, fast and fair fossil phase out."
The analysis focuses on four key actions governments can take over the next two years to peak in time.
- Ramping up wind, solar and electric vehicles is the most powerful in terms of emissions savings,
- Concerted action on methane reduction (Fugitive emissions)
- Rapid rollout of heat pumps and
- Energy Efficiency Improvements
The last two were not assessed due to data availability. These would bring emissions down even faster.
The report concludes:
The world can peak global emissions before 2025, but this is not guaranteed. Current NDCs collectively fall far short of the mark, adding up to only a 2% reduction by 2030 compared to 2019 levels (UNFCCC 2023). And existing fossil fuel production plans, if realised, would push the world into very dangerous territory.
Yet, momentum behind the energy transition is building, and if governments get behind rather than push against this, it will be possible to meet a key IPCC milestone for keeping the 1.5°C limit in reach.
COP28 is an opportunity for the world to respond directly to what the latest science shows is needed: a global peaking before 2025, on the road to a tripling of renewables, a doubling of energy efficiency improvement rates, and a 40% cut in fossil fuels by 2030.
Video summary of the analysis:
References:
Climate Analytics, 22 November, 2023, When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak? https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-peak
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