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Monday, July 10, 2023

Ozone layer in Recovery, Montreal Protocol reducing Greenhouse gases set to avoid global warming by about 0.5–1°C by 2050

Photo: IISD/ENB OEWG contact group meeting
The Montreal Protocol, the little international treaty that reduces ozone depleting substances but also assists greatly with reducing greenhouse gases causing global warming.

The 45th Meeting of the Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol met in Thailand between 2 to 7 July 2023.

The IISD/ENB summary report of the meeting notes:

"The success of the Montreal Protocol was again highlighted and further specified by the Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP): stratospheric ozone is on the way to full recovery, expected by around 2040 for the near-global average, around 2045 in the Arctic, and around 2066 in the Antarctic. At the same time, the decline in ozone depleting substance (ODS) emissions due to compliance with the Protocol is set to avoid global warming by about 0.5–1°C by 2050, compared to an uncontrolled increase in ODS. Another 0.3–0.5°C of avoided warming by 2100 is estimated due to the phase-down of HFCs, the ozone-friendly but climate-warming greenhouse gases controlled under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol."


On the use of PFAS class of chemicals 

PFAS class of chemicals are proposed as an alternative to some ozone depleting substances.

"PFAS present challenges to the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, as they have been proposed as alternatives to some ozone depleting substances and substances with high GWP. Discussions on this issue will likely continue for some time."  - July 6 iisd/ENB summary report:

Australia plays an active role in treaty

On Day 1 (July 2) Patrick McInerney, Australia, referred to growing emissions from feedstock, uncontrolled chemicals and banks, and hinted to voluntary and market-based action that could complement regulation.

On July 5: 

"Parties also agreed to establish a contact group to discuss the proposal by Cuba to provide flexibility in determining baselines under the Protocol. This would account for a decrease in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) consumption observed in some countries as a result of reduced imports during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to years before and after. The contact group will be co-chaired by Juan Jose Galeano (Argentina) and Patrick McInerney (Australia)."

On Stratospheric Atmospheric Injection (SAI)

There is growing concern about injection of sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere as a possible  geoengineering solution to slow global warming. 

"AUSTRALIA welcomed the good news in the evidence of ozone recovery and the work done to arrest the unexpected emissions of CFC-11. She noted the potential for negative effects that Stratosphere Atmospheric Injection (SAI) may have on the ozone layer.

"On Friday morning, AUSTRALIA introduced a proposal on SAI and protection of the ozone layer (UNEP/OzL.Pro.WG.1/45/CRP.5), submitted jointly with Canada, noting that there was limited scientific information available on the risks of SAI. She noted the proposal, among others:

  • invites the global scientific community to address risks and uncertainties for the ozone layer in any scientific studies or assessments undertaken in relation to SAI; and
  • requests the Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP), to engage with the global scientific community regarding, and to continue to bring to the attention of the parties, any important developments with respect to SAI, including the inclusion of updated or new scenarios or modelling to assist with understanding of the potential impacts of SAI on the ozone layer.

Delegates agreed to take up this proposal at MOP 35 according to the IISD/ENB full summary report.

Outcomes

The working group concluded July 7 referring four new draft proposals to the next Meeting of the Parties in Nairobi in October 2023: (IISD/ENB July 7 Summary report)

"During the morning plenary, delegates agreed to forward four new draft proposals to the thirty-fifth Meeting of the Parties (MOP 35), convening in Nairobi in October 2023. These new proposals, which were not formally discussed at the OEWG, concern:

  • Shared responsibility to stop dumping of inefficient cooling equipment containing obsolete refrigerants, submitted by African states;
  • Feedstock uses, submitted by Australia;
  • Abating emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CTC), submitted by Switzerland; and
  • Stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) and protection of the ozone layer, submitted by Australia and Canada.

The IISD/EMB OEWG 45 analysis is full and detailed. It also highlights many challenges ahead:

"However, the Montreal Protocol still has work to do. In their reports, the Assessment Panels identified remaining challenges, which have the potential to slow down the recovery of the ozone layer and contribute to global warming. These include:

  • unexpected and, to some extent, unexplained emissions of some ODS (especially chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), also other than CFC-11) and HFCs (specifically HFC-23);
  • uncertainties in remaining stocks of ODS (especially methyl bromide) and in emissions from banks of ODS contained in aging equipment and products;
  • fugitive and other emissions from ODS and HFCs produced or used as feedstock, which is not included in the calculated level of substances controlled by the Protocol;
  • emissions from very short-lived substances (VSLS) as lower impact ODS not controlled by the Protocol (VSLS or their remains stay in the stratosphere for months rather than decades like other ODS);
  • gaps in the observation network, exacerbated by aging monitoring instruments;
  • the feasibility of alternatives to ODS and HFCs, which may have unintended effects such as high GWP, flammability, toxicity, availability, and affordability; and
  • impacts from extraordinary wildfires, volcanic eruptions, increasing rocket launches, and supersonic aircraft.

"These technical discussions formed only a part of the agenda before the OEWG 45, with delegations drawing different conclusions on how to address these and other challenges from a policy perspective."

And some positive concluding remarks:

"Several delegations leaving the conference hall on Friday night agreed the debates in Bangkok demonstrated that the Montreal Protocol is worthy of all the accolades it receives. While the Protocol still faces challenges, it has the potential to further inspire others on how global diplomacy is done, ensuring this world stays a wonderful place to live for generations to come."

References:

Read IISD/ENB detailed summary report for more in depth detail of the discussions and outcomes

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