Australian Targets

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Thursday, October 20, 2022

Victoria sets 75-80% emissions reduction target for 2035, Net zero by 2045, New Renewables Targets VRET of 65% by 2030, 95% by 2035.

The Victorian Labor Premier, Dan Andrews, and Climate Change Minister Lily D'Ambrosio, have announced the State's 2035 emissions reduction target, new renewable energy targets and re-establishment of a  government Owned electricity supplier for the market.. 

The new 2035 emissions reduction target is set at 75-80% reductions on 2005 levels, and net zero by 2045. It places Victoria as globally ambitious in climate targets.

Victoria new renewable energy targets are 95% renewables by 2035, 65% by 2030.

The Victorian state government will undertake to build 4.5 gigawatts of publicly owned renewables and the reestablishment of a publicly owned electric commission. 

The government has estimated its energy plan will create 60,000 jobs by 2035. 


This is In addition to a Victorian Energy Storage Target of 2.6 gigawatts by 2030 and 6.3 gigawatts by 2035 made recently. (Victoria sets Energy Storage targets of 2.6 Gigawatts by 2030 and 6.3 GW by 2035 capacity, coal may end in early 2030s)

Victoria’s latest greenhouse gas performance data, released in October 2022, showed that emissions had declined by 29.8 percent to 2020. (Victoria cut emissions by 29.8% on 2005 levels by 2020. There is a pathway to decarbonisation by 2035 to meet 1.5C target).

The new targets boost the existing interim VRET from 50% to 65% by 2030, and the emissions reduction target from 50 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 to 75-80 per cent by 2035.

This indicates that coal power, based on brown coal from the La Trobe Valley, will likely end in Victoria in the early 2030s. 

The State Government will allocate $20 million to re-establish the State Electricity Commission with its headquarters based in Morwell, providing a key element for La Trobe Valley transition to a clean energy future. The SEC will initially be a generator with assets 51% owned by the Victorian taxpayer. Preferred private investment will include encouraging super funds to invest for the other 49%. The SEC may later move in to electricity retailing.

“Renewables will replace coal, and these new ‘power stations’ will be owned by every Victorian to benefit every Victorian,” a statement from Andrews said on Thursday.

“Big energy companies want to offshore profits – we want to offshore wind. Renewable energy is the future: it’s good for our climate, good for lower power bills and good for jobs.” said Premier Daniel Andrews.

“Today, we cement Victoria as a global climate action leader,” said Climate Change and Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio.

The 2035 emissions reduction target is ambituous and places Victoria up with leading jurisdictions globally, although it still falls short of what is needed to meet the Paris agreement 1.5C temperature target. The Climate Council has argued we should aim for net zero by 2035.

Update: Climateworks argue this new target is aligned with the Paris climate 1.5C target. See Climateworks submission on the 2035 climate target

In this submission provided to the Victorian Government in May 2022, we recommended Victoria set a 2035 emissions reduction target of 75-80 per cent below 2005 levels, based on a 1.5 degrees Celsius least cost pathway for Australia. In October 2022, the Victorian Government announced plans to adopt this target. If implemented, this would align Victoria to the Paris goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

How Victroia's new Net zero target by 2045 compares globally

The announcement that Victoria's Net-zero emissions reduction target will move forward by five years to 2045 is pleasing to see. It will contribute to faster emissions reduction at the national level. It compares well with a number of national and regional jurisdictions, internationally. 

Victoria now joins the ACT in Australia for a Net zero target by 2045. Among developed countries Finland has a 2035 target, Iceland has 2040, Germany and Sweden have a 2045  target. Victoria's 2045 target is on the same level as US states of California, Maine, Maryland and Hawaii. Scotland in the UK also has a 2045 net zero target.

How Victoria compares with other Australian states, other nations, and other regions. Data extracted from Net Zero Tracker  (data to June 2022).


How Victoria's 2035 emissions reduction target compares

Beside the countries listed above, very few countries have set a 2035 interim emissions reduction target so far. The UK is one of the few to do so with an interim 2035 target of 78 percent emissions reduction. We are likely to see more countries set an interim 2035 target in the next few years.

Climate Minister Lily D'Ambrosio posted the following graph on Facebook. Early announcement has meant Victoria is a leader, but other jurisdictions are likely to catch up as they annouce 2035 targets.




While New targets are Ambitious there are still many rough climate policy edges

The Greens climate policy is to ramp up renewables and storage and close down all Victorian coal fired power by 2030, with a science based net zero emissions target by 2035. 

The Labor government ramping up climate targets and renewables goes a long way to match the Greens policy on climate action, and it is clear that the Greens push Labor to go further and faster on climate change. The Labor Government still has many weak spots on climate including:

  • authorizing conventional gas exploration in Bass Strait when IEA, IPCC say no new fossil fuel projects
  • gas substitution roadmap needs more ambition.
  • Logging of Native forests. A target of 2030 to stop logging has been set but this needs to be moved forward to 2024. Funding for forest conservation and tourism needed as part of logging transition
  • No plans to ramp up investment in active transport (walking and cycling) to reduce transport emissions. NSW under a conservative government have a $950 million active transport budget for 5 years. Victoria allocated $23 million in 2022 budget for cycling specific projects. Might want to speak to Transport Minister Ben Carroll MP about this.

Transmission Grid Upgade:

This announcement follows on from a joint announcement by the Victorian Premier and Prime Minister yesterday on upgrading the transmission grid as part of the Rewiring the Nation program.

This will include a commitment to proceed with Marinus Link between Victoria and Tasmania and for Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding for the Victoria-NSW KerangLink interconnector in a deal that will support more than 3400 jobs and generate $3.3 billion in net market benefits and investment.

“A smart, modern and strong transmission system is a crucial piece of the jigsaw puzzle to deliver a lower cost, more reliable and clean energy power system and transition Australia to become a clean energy superpower,” said Clean Energy Council Chief Executive, Kane Thornton.

“Australia is rapidly transitioning to a more flexible, low-cost, clean energy system and transmission projects – such as Marinus and KerangLink - and energy storage play a crucial role in Australia’s energy future.

“Marinus Link will allow Tasmania to export its considerable pumped hydro and wind energy resources to the National Electricity Market and open up further investment opportunities in renewables." said Thornton.

But the Marinus Link has been strongly criticised by some environmentalists.  Former Greens leader and secretary of the board at the Bob Brown Foundation, Christine Milne argues it will be an “ecological and economic disaster” for Tasmania.

“It’s a terrible project, that will plunge Tasmania into debt, for virtually no benefit to Tasmanians,” Milne told RenewEconomy.

“Tasmania can never afford to do anything because we are are crippled with debt [from establishing the state’s hydro power system],” she said.

“And now Marinus is going to be concessional loan – all to facilitate private sector investment in wind farms that are not necessary, when the mainland is more than capable of producing them itself.” said Milne.

Response from Climate Council

The Climate Council has welcomed the plan, saying Australians will win from a race to the top on strong climate action. 

Climate Council Head of Advocacy Dr Jennifer Rayner said the plan shows considerable promise. 

“Victoria is the second big state in just the last few weeks to announce major new plans to cut harmful pollution and drive the transition to zero emissions, and Victoria’s clean energy target puts it at the front of the pack for the big states. 

“There is a real sense of momentum now towards a clean future in Australia. The race to net zero is one every Australian can cheer on. 

“The further and faster states go on reducing emissions, investing in clean energy technologies like renewables, storage and energy efficiency and phasing out fossil fuels, the more benefits they’ll unlock. That’s why it’s essential we keep pushing towards deep cuts in emissions this decade. 

“This plan puts Victoria in a prime position to tackle climate change. A 95% renewable energy target signifies the end of coal powered generation in the state. Energy companies clearly know that time is up for coal, as we’ve seen recently with the announcement of the early closure of the Loy Yang pollution bomb.

“Right now Victorian communities are either recovering from, or bracing for, a major flooding disaster. All weather events are occurring in a warmer climate, which is supercharging disasters and reducing the time communities have to recover. Fossil fuels are to blame. The faster we can limit emissions, the better. 

“It is absolutely critical to take decisive action to reduce emissions as soon as possible to put the brakes on warming, and we welcome this new race to the top from Australian states and territories to do it.”

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