The Sea Surface temperature Anomaly around Australia in November 2011 remains elevated. A slow cooling in the tropical mid Pacific indicates that La Niña is also slowly building. A persistently warm Indian Ocean is also a main driver for forecast wetter conditions in Australia this summer.
"Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2011, and persist into early 2012. It is considered unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of 2010-11." records the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in it's update published on 9 November 2011.
The forecast for Australia of a wetter summer is more likely over large parts of northern, eastern and southwest Australia. During October overnight temperatures were warmer than normal, but maximum temperatures were close to normal. Rainfall was substantially higher than usual across much of the western and northern regions of Australia.
More Tropical cyclones are being predicted this season. "Tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (5°S-40°S, 90°E-160°E) is likely to be above average this coming season. The outlook suggests a 80% chance of having more than the long-term average number of cyclones in the Australian region during the 2011-12 season." says the Bureau of Meteorology. The average is 12 cyclones per season.
Let us hope we don't experience another Cyclone Yasi, although with climate change we increase our odds of experiencing extreme weather events.
- Bureau of Meteorology - Global Daily Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 12 November 2011
- Bureau of Meteorology - El Niño / La Niña updates
- Bureau of Meteorology - Outlook for Australian Tropical Cyclone Season
- Image from NCEP/NOAA - SST Anomaly for 12 Nov 2011